Trend Continues (Aug Edition): Less Revenue From Tax Bill

LucyLou · 2018-08-09T14:54:21.637Z

Smyrna:

There’s a huge tax cut and the revenue generated is less than 1% a part. The full benefit hasn’t even come close to being realized yet. This is fantastic news. I can’t wait to see next year when increased business investments kick in from the tax cut.

I have no idea what your first sentence means.

What is fantastic news?

What business investments are you referring to?

Why are tax revenues cratering when the economy is booming?

Smyrna · 2018-08-09T15:06:09.398Z

LucyLou:

I have no idea what your first sentence means.

What is fantastic news?

What business investments are you referring to?

Why are tax revenues cratering when the economy is booming

Look at the total revenue up to July in both years and total it. The two years are less than 1% a part. I’m sure that most business owners are cautious and will wait until the end of the year when the fiscal year is completed to do a financial analysis of what it meant to their bottom line after tax income and then decide how best to utilize it. That’s what I’m doing and I’m sure I’m far from being the only one?

dantes · 2018-08-09T15:10:37.089Z

So you haven’t paid anything to the IRS this year? I think they’d want to talk to you about that.

You’ve also outlined the fundamental concept of supply sliders. Wait long enough and tax receipts always go up. It’s impossible to lose.

Attreyu · 2018-08-09T15:14:54.634Z

Yawn! We wont really know how the economy truly is till after this quarter is finished! All signs point to a good quarter!

dantes · 2018-08-09T15:21:03.876Z

Exactly! The better the economy, the lower the taxes. We should be celebrating higher deficits because it means we are getting free government?

vaard · 2018-08-09T15:23:30.605Z

More tax cuts will increase revenue…

adroit · 2018-08-09T15:55:13.506Z

Supply Side Motto: Just wait, not yet…

NebraskaFootball · 2018-08-09T15:56:06.839Z

Attreyu:

Yawn! We wont really know how the economy truly is till after this quarter is finished! All signs point to a good quarter!

What signs would those be?

adroit · 2018-08-09T15:57:04.628Z

Smyrna:

Look at the total revenue up to July in both years and total it. The two years are less than 1% a part. I’m sure that most business owners are cautious and will wait until the end of the year when the fiscal year is completed to do a financial analysis of what it meant to their bottom line after tax income and then decide how best to utilize it. That’s what I’m doing and I’m sure I’m far from being the only one?

Revenues were set to increase quite a bit and now that has been reversed and may even go negative by the end of the FY. And outlays are continuing to increase at a higher rate. Yay for deficit fueled economic gain! There was this group of people that used to poo poo on that, but they haven’t showed up in quite some time. Makes one think they were full of ■■■■■

Smyrna · 2018-08-09T16:48:19.337Z

adroit:

Revenues were set to increase quite a bit and now that has been reversed and may even go negative by the end of the FY. And outlays are continuing to increase at a higher rate. Yay for deficit fueled economic gain! There was this group of people that used to poo poo on that, but they haven’t showed up in quite some time. Makes one think they were full of ■■■■…

The only thing negative is your mindset and it isn’t Armageddon as Pelosi stated.

NebraskaFootball · 2018-08-09T16:52:43.687Z

Smyrna:

The only thing negative is your mindset and it isn’t Armageddon as Pelosi stated.

@adroit provides facts, and your retort is that he just has a negative mindset? I guess that is your version of alternative facts?

The deficit and debt are climbing at unprecedented rates to set new records. Businesses are laying off workers because of the decision by Trump to raise taxes on all American consumers, businesses, and farmers. Wages are stagnant as fewer jobs were added in the first 18 months of the Trump Presidency than were added in the last 18 months of the Obama Presidency. And on top of it all, we are taking in far less in tax receipts than last year, and may end the year in negative territory. These are all facts. And your suggestion is that if people were just more positive in the face of these facts…what? Something, something, something, MAGA?

adroit · 2018-08-09T16:52:58.773Z

Smyrna:

adroit:

Revenues were set to increase quite a bit and now that has been reversed and may even go negative by the end of the FY. And outlays are continuing to increase at a higher rate. Yay for deficit fueled economic gain! There was this group of people that used to poo poo on that, but they haven’t showed up in quite some time. Makes one think they were full of ■■■■…

The only thing negative is your mindset and it isn’t Armageddon as Pelosi stated.

No, it’s an empirical fact that monthly revenues have been negative compared to the same month a year prior. We are about $23 billion away from going negative YOY for FY2018. I don’t think that’s ever happened in an expansion period.

mobiusptc · 2018-08-09T16:54:18.437Z

Trump twitter feed of course, what other sign can be trusted?

Smyrna · 2018-08-09T16:54:29.708Z

adroit:

No, it’s an empirical fact that monthly revenues have been negative compared to the same month a year prior. We are about $23 billion away from going negative YOY for FY2018. I don’t think that’s ever happened in an expansion period.

So next year after the benefits from the tax decrease kick in, you’ll admit you were wrong? Let’s remember this, same bat time, same bat channel…next year.

lulubee · 2018-08-09T16:59:06.125Z

zantax:

Nope, still too early to make that call, no reasonable supply sider would say you should expect a short term gain in revenue, it’s a long term proposition. It hasn’t even really taken effect yet. I haven’t filed taxes under the reduced rates yet.

dantes · 2018-08-09T17:00:16.796Z

Next year there will still be a deficit.

adroit · 2018-08-09T17:13:39.370Z

Smyrna:

adroit:

No, it’s an empirical fact that monthly revenues have been negative compared to the same month a year prior. We are about $23 billion away from going negative YOY for FY2018. I don’t think that’s ever happened in an expansion period.

So next year after the benefits from the tax decrease kick in, you’ll admit you were wrong? Let’s remember this, same bat time, same bat channel…next year.

Absolutely. We can use the June 2017 CBO baseline [1] which was operating under no assumptions from the tax law. If we don’t reach revenues comparable to that baseline, I’ll say I was wrong

Borgia · 2018-08-09T17:19:54.853Z

ohknow35:

So exactly which numbers are we thanking obama for from this point forward?? Just to be clear.

All, some, none??

Please provide a list.

Well, I think we’ve credited Trump with the unemployment numbers from the moment he took office. I certainly have. But I have noted that they aren’t much different than Obama’s unemployment numbers over his last year. Those are the numbers that Trump and you conservatives called fake. You remember that, don’t you?

zantax · 2018-08-09T17:57:49.118Z

dantes:

So you haven’t paid anything to the IRS this year? I think they’d want to talk to you about that.

You’ve also outlined the fundamental concept of supply sliders. Wait long enough and tax receipts always go up. It’s impossible to lose.

Out of caution I have kept my withholding higher than it most likely needs to be yes, next year I will have a better idea of what it needs to be.

And yes both sides always claim victory because it is impossible to conclusively prove what economic growth would have been with and without tax cuts. But if you want an example, look at the economic recovery after the Reagan tax cuts and compare it to the dismal Obama recovery.

dantes · 2018-08-09T18:00:56.915Z

Awfully silly to compare two vastly different recessions.

There are far better and more scientific ways of doing it. I don’t think you’re going to like the outcome though.