Zogby got 49 out of 50 states right in 2008; Douglas Samuelson wrote of Zogby’s 2016 prediction: Poll Taken After Trump’s Diagnosis Finds Biden Only Leading By 2 | The Daily Wire
Three weeks before the election, despite Hillary Clinton’s double-digit leads in most polls at the time, he declared, “I can’t tell you who’s really going to win. Tell me who will vote, and I’ll tell you who will win. If we get around 132 million votes, as we did in 2008 and 2012, Hillary wins. If we get 121 million, as we did in 2004, Trump wins.”
We actually got around 126 million, giving Clinton about a 2 million vote lead. Shortly after Election Day, with 122 million votes counted, her lead was closer to 200,000. Several million non-voters, particularly Democratic-leaning people in the north central states, helped tip those states to Trump. So Zogby’s assessment looks quite accurate.
Zogby stated of his prediction of the 2016 presidential election:
Zogby did not poll the horse race after two weeks before the election, though our last poll had Clinton leading by 2 points. With that said, I think it was more a combination of a misunderstanding of how to read polls and a media that really wanted Donald Trump to lose — so much that they screened out any other possibility.
So got 49 out of 50 states in 2008 right. Predicted the popular vote Clinton would win by about 2 million votes, which was about right, and didn’t know who was going to win the election, while all the you say legitimate pollsters that you point to the Wall Street Journal poll that had Clinton up 14% just as they have Biden up now. hmm, who is biased, do you actually think that Biden will win by 14%, ok if that makes you feel better.
I was thinking about that also. Looking back, Biden just destroyed both Palin and Ryan. And then Kane tried to talk over and degrade Pence and came out looking stupid. It is hard to say how much the VP debates make overall. But I have heard some folks that say that they are on the fence and that they like Biden but are unsure how radical left Harris is. The CEC has done a pretty good job at painting her a far-left radical witch. Film at eleven.
Long ago I started saying that this was going to be a turnout race. And you are correct about those that stayed home. As well as the number of people who voted for Jill that might have given it to Clinton.
I predict that Democrats will turn out with numbers equal or better then 2008 and 2012. And if that happens and Trump has not increased his base, he will be toast.
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I do not believe that many people who are on the fence will watch that video that he shot in the WH tonight and say “I’m going to vote for the guy who says not to worry about this virus”.
JimmyC
485
And then enters the White House without a mask so he can infect even more people.
If I or any of my family worked at the WH I would just just walk away and tell them to do the same.
Our president doesn’t care for anyone but himself. And if that isn’t clear to his supporters, then they are gone over the edge.
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DougBH
487
She didn’t help her case by donating bail money to rioters.
No, not protestors. Protesting is legal.
Who votes because of the veep selection, like nobody.
Allan
cnn has bide up 16,his largest margin yet
They are funded by Russia. It’s all Russian disinformation and propaganda. Zero Hedge is a joke.
Russian? I had no idea. I had just looked at some of their analysis in the past, and it was absolutely horrible.
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Permabears are only right when the market goes bear. If you have listened to Zerohedge, you have lost out on hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars in gains.
And those 401k gold ira guys were just caught selling gold way above market value to investors. Bunch of shysters, that lot.
JayJay
495
On October 10 Clinton led Trump by 14-15 points in RCP.
Now of course the Comey letter on Oct 28 happened for her…but a) that shows how fast things can change and b) the Trump campaign definitely will blast something out late in the game.
Biden needs to campaign like he’s losing badly.
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This does not bode well for Trump at the 4 week from election mark…
Joe Biden now has a 12-point lead over President Trump in Pennsylvania, according to a Monmouth University poll out Tuesday, which also found that a majority of voters in the battleground state think Biden better understands their daily concerns.
Chris
497
I didn’t vote for either Clinton or Trump in 2016, but I will be voting for Biden this election.
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Chris
498
I still think that Trump has a pretty good chance of winning Florida this election. But Biden is likely going to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona. Four years ago, Arizona was a light red State, but now Arizona is a light blue state. Democratic Sinema won her Senate race two years ago in Arizona, and Biden is likely going to win Arizona this election.
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Safiel
499
The debate performance and the both the Covid infection and Trump’s bizarre behavior during the Covid infection have been absolutely catastrophic to Trump.
Biden just needs to keep bumbling along as he is and he will win. He just needs to stay low key, don’t commit unforced errors and let Trump continue to self destruct.
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Indeed. The same is true for me as well. And many, many people I know.
