Today’s polls and discussion about polls

Apocalypto · 2020-10-19T18:22:34.456Z

Internally, the Trump campaign is increasingly worried that Trump’s chances of winning NC, a state they view as essential, have all but evaporated.

The campaign had considered NC “super safe” as recently as just a few weeks ago.

ABC News

Trump heads into final campaign stretch forced to play defense against Biden

President Donald Trump, down in the polls to Joe Biden and facing a cash crunch, has been forced to spend the final weeks of his reelection fight on defense.

biggestal99 · 2020-10-19T18:22:37.584Z

If trump only polls 40% of the vote the republicans are in huge trouble.

But it’s an outlier. Think 10% is about right 15 days out.

Allan

biggestal99 · 2020-10-19T18:29:20.958Z

Apocalypto:

Internally, the Trump campaign is increasingly worried that Trump’s chances of winning NC, a state they view as essential, have all but evaporated.

The campaign had considered NC “super safe” as recently as just a few weeks ago.

The last 4 538 “a” polls in North Carolina

Even
Biden +4
Biden +5
Biden +3

Polls conducted between Oct 8 to October 14.

Think @Safiel will be a happy camper.

Allan

Paul_Thomson · 2020-10-19T19:03:45.665Z

biggestal99:

Impeachment by house then impeachment trial by senate then either remove or not remove vote. 3 easy steps.

I should have said,
“Just as it looked like Trump would be removed via impeachment to the sheople gulping down the fake MSM narratives.”

wonderingrover · 2020-10-19T19:05:23.798Z

Paul_Thomson:

biggestal99:

Impeachment by house then impeachment trial by senate then either remove or not remove vote. 3 easy steps.

I should have said,
“Just like it looked like Trump would be removed via impeachment to the sheople gulping down the fake MSM narratives.”

I think most of us realized his republican buddies in the Senate would cover for him.

biggestal99 · 2020-10-19T19:07:11.049Z

Paul_Thomson:

I should have said,
“Just as it looked like Trump would be removed via impeachment to the sheople gulping down the fake MSM narratives.”

Trump was never going to be removed. Never ever in a million years.

Allan

highroller · 2020-10-19T19:15:47.243Z

If that holds true, you would see senate seats like SC, GA, MT, and KS go blue, not just ME, AZ, and MI.

biggestal99 · 2020-10-19T20:01:07.346Z

highroller:

If that holds true, you would see senate seats like SC, GA, MT, and KS go blue, not just ME, AZ, and MI.

Georgia has two seats up for grabs.

Cook says +7 for dems.

I”ll go +5

Allan

AmusedObserver · 2020-10-19T20:11:45.759Z

biggestal99:

If trump only polls 40% of the vote the republicans are in huge trouble.

But it’s an outlier. Think 10% is about right 15 days out.

Allan

10% would be a blowout.

538 currently has Biden at +10.8% nationally. RCP is 8.9%.

biggestal99 · 2020-10-19T20:26:01.063Z

AmusedObserver:

10

I will revise my prediction

Biden 53.8%
Trump 44.8%
Other 1.4%

Allan

Paul_Thomson · 2020-10-19T22:24:35.958Z

biggestal99:

Trump was never going to be removed.

Allan

I agree.

biggestal99:

Never ever in a million years.

I disagree.

Apocalypto · 2020-10-19T23:36:17.441Z

Early returns in Florida show the pre-Election Day electorate is currently trending younger than four years ago.

Florida voters under 65 years old accounted for about half the ballots cast, marking a 12-point uptick compared to this time in 2016.

I will assume this is good news for Democrats.

CNN – 19 Oct 20

October 19 US election 2020 news

With the election just over two weeks away, the race between President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden heats up. Here's the latest news on campaigns, voting and more.

WorldWatcher · 2020-10-19T23:37:36.226Z

Apocalypto:

Early returns in Florida show the pre-Election Day electorate is currently trending younger than four years ago.

Florida voters under 65 years old accounted for about half the ballots cast, marking a 12-point uptick compared to this time in 2016.

I will assume this is good news for Democrats.

https://cnn.it/2ILuyWq

Trump will rue the day he bad mouthed vote by mail.

.
.
.
.WW, PSHS

Apocalypto · 2020-10-19T23:39:49.085Z

Fingers crossed.

image750×484 86.7 KB

Axios – 18 Oct 20

What early voting can (and can't) tell us about the election

Democratic strategists think they are seeing a 2020 electorate that will be younger and more diverse than 2016.

matt1618 · 2020-10-20T03:23:59.780Z

What percentage in 2016 when the avg was more than 6? About the same now.

matt1618 · 2020-10-20T03:38:32.582Z

Probably right but if he nabbed Nevada, latest down by 1, but he’d have to hold everything else. Pennsylvania is closer, attack on fracking, court packing might help.

biggestal99 · 2020-10-20T09:51:25.669Z

A few more polls from yesterday

Good news for biden

Pennsylvania +4

Texas +1

Wisconsin +6

Washington +23

Good news for trump

Alabama +17

Arkansas +25

Georgia +1

Allan

NebraskaFootball · 2020-10-20T12:21:54.822Z

Not looking good for Ernst.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-senate-iowa-to-leans-democratic/

The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic

NuffSaid · 2020-10-20T13:23:09.164Z

NebraskaFootball:

Not looking good for Ernst.

The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic – Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic

Good. Another one potentially bites the dust.

DOLOOP · 2020-10-20T13:37:32.241Z

NebraskaFootball:

Not looking good for Ernst.

The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic – Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic

Deserves to lose. That’s like not knowing the approximate price of oil in Oklahoma or Alaska.