This poll should make Trump feel good

Perhaps Trump might dump Pence as his VP nomination for 2020 in an attempt to improve his poll numbers.

The "mainstream " media, is not against Trump.
Reporting facts, just makes it look like they are against Trump.

Trump is not liked by a majority of people.

All one has to do is listen to him, and see what he does.

But…keep on blaming the media. Safer to stick to YouTube.

What if anything isn’t nonsense?

I’m going to go with verified trusted math-based pollsters using proven formulas and algorithms. Not unskewed garbage.

Yeah but when you take voter suppression into account the numbers flip. We have 2 classes of polls likely voters and registered voters. Maybe we need a 3rd class; voters that aren’t disenfranchised. That’s the internal numbers Trump is talking about.

Cats never lie



2018 happened.

And I mostly do as well except this did happen in 2016 (polls for WI) :

Source: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Wisconsin: Trump vs. Clinton

You can dismiss it as more “unskewed polls” nonsense, because that’s exactly what it is.

They weighed their results according to party affiliation, on the (entirely false) assumption that equal numbers of Americans self-identify as “Republicans” and “Democrats”

1 Like

Fair point, I’m no expert on WI. @LucyLou talk to us.

I do know that it was very lazy and arrogant of Clinton to not go there. We won’t repeat that mistake.

1 Like

Something else to consider. Even if this poll is complete partisan rubbish, here’s a piece from Politico. Very long article, much of it not super relevant to the topic in hand, but one excerpt stands out

Keep in mind, this is a Democratic congresswoman speaking and this somewhat echoes the “shy” Trump vote described in the articled linked in the OP:

So out of touch with reality.

I think this is important to talk about. I love Slotkin. She is my representative(East Lansing, MI). In no way can we take these polls as it will work out well. Slotkin won in the Blue Wave of 2018 and it will be hard for her to repeat that unless turnout is great.

1 Like

If Biden is up by 8-10 points in RCP or 538 in November he wins. The supposed uncounted Trump voters won’t matter. If Biden’s up 3-5 points then yes, we need to be nervous. Regardless of any uncounted Trump voters the electoral college favors Republicans so the Democrat needs a sufficient buffer in the popular vote.


Remember this ?

Yes, battleground poll quality was not good in 2016. It was also a really weird scenario, with a celebrity populist unknown saying “what ya got to lose? I’m super rich!” against a very known and largely hated candidate. Clinton being too lazy and arrogant to bother visiting the rust belt…The celebrity won the electoral college by about 50,000 votes.

Now we have the most despised President of all time during a pandemic he is ignoring, vs. someone basically no one hates.

I’m not complacent, but if I were running I would much rather be Biden in these polls than Trump.

All the spin aside, what I am concerned about is poll methodology, first and foremost. I.E. was/is there a fundamental error akin to which Slotkin describes in polling ?