This morning's BEA Report: Q3 Incomes shriveling, personal savings rates completely in the tank

Gaius · 2023-10-27T00:45:40.199Z

Three months is not always a trend, so, let’s call this “a bad sign.”

According to this morning’s BEA report, adjusted for taxes and inflation US per capita US personal incomes dropped from $50,170 to $49,974 in Q3 of this year. (0.4%)

-And -

The savings rate got slammed. We had been on track to add $1.04t to savings on a twelve-month basis, it looks now like the actual number will be $777b.

GDP did increase 4.9% in real terms (just like the headlines said,) but the money did not work its way into real personal incomes, and it sure as heck did not go into personal savings.

What is it the libs used to say (before Joe Biden was in office)? Something about the poor and middle class getting poorer or something. Well, it looks like its actually happening now. At least, there is a 3-month sign of it.

There is a pretty-decent blog about it here:
https://mishtalk.com/economics/blowout-4-9-percent-increase-in-gdp-but-real-disposable-income-declines-1-0-percent/

He rounds differently than I do but his numbers are accurate. Original source is Table 8 here:
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-10/gdp3q23_adv.pdf

Gaius · 2023-10-27T11:38:26.599Z

@FreeAndClear
Here is is from the WSJ:

Income down. Savings downer

But there are warning signs underlying the eye-popping numbers. Americans saved less and their incomes, adjusted for inflation, fell over the summer. That could mean the pace of spending will ease in coming months. Business investment also stalled. . . .

The the article Re-asserted it

Real after-tax incomes down. Savings even downer.

Americans’ after-tax, inflation-adjusted income decreased 1.0% in July through September, after a sizeable increase during the first half of the year. Their savings as a share of income fell to 3.8% in the third quarter, from 5.2% in the second.

and added (much like I did)
Inventories and gov’t spending (which are poor indicators of family economic health) were out-sized contributors to GDP this time.

A buildup in inventories also supported the third quarter’s economic expansion, contributing more than 1 percentage point to growth. Government expenditures, meanwhile, rose 4.6% over the summer.

Free version of the WSJ article here:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/u-s-economy-s-summer-surge-may-not-last/ar-AA1iR0mc

FreeAndClear · 2023-10-27T12:33:31.028Z

Thank you I’ll take a look