The very first 2024 Electoral College thread

Safiel · 2022-11-10T00:32:39.533Z

This will be my baseline map for 2024.

Democrats - 261
Republicans - 234

If DeSantis is the nominee, I would add Georgia to the baseline bring Republicans to 250.

Georgia - 16
Arizona - 11
Nevada - 6
Wisconsin - 10

Those are the four battlegrounds. (Three if DeSantis is the nominee.)

Given the awful Republican performance this cycle, the advantage clearly starts with the Democrats. But Republicans can clearly win if they get their act together and nominate a strong candidate.

STODR · 2022-11-10T01:39:17.753Z

I would also think if Desantis is nominee he will get Virginia.

thinkingman · 2022-11-10T01:45:30.831Z

looks about right.

yay destruction of US

Publius · 2022-11-14T15:15:21.659Z

STODR:

I would also think if Desantis is nominee he will get Virginia.

No way in hell.

Camp · 2022-11-14T15:19:55.545Z

Pretty good set up.

I agree with that assessment as it stands right now.

I dread the optics of two old goats slugging it out again in 2024.

biggestal99 · 2022-11-14T16:14:47.621Z

Camp:

I dread the optics of two old goats slugging it out again in 2024.

yep. i will be sitting that one out.

Allan

peek-a-boo · 2022-11-14T16:23:52.596Z

Safiel:

Given the awful Republican performance this cycle, the advantage clearly starts with the Democrats. But Republicans can clearly win if they get their act together and nominate a strong candidate.

I can’t think of a candidate that would be attractive to the Trump base and the never-Trumpers alike. That kind of candidate would be the only one with any chance to win.

My gut tells me that Trump and De Santis will be the last 2 standing. Neither would have the support of both GOP camps, and thus would likely lose to a generic DEM candidate. IMHO

WorldWatcher · 2022-11-14T16:27:17.694Z

peek-a-boo:

My gut tells me that Trump and De Santis will be the last 2 standing. Neither would have the support of both GOP camps, and thus would likely lose to a generic DEM candidate. IMHO

From a mindset standpoint, I don’t think it is quite right

You’d have the MAGA crowd split between Trump and DeSantis and then sane GOP right of center as a third group.

WW

peek-a-boo · 2022-11-14T18:18:14.675Z

WorldWatcher:

From a mindset standpoint, I don’t think it is quite right

You’d have the MAGA crowd split between Trump and DeSantis and then sane GOP right of center as a third group.

WW

I find it hard to believe the MAGA crowd wouldn’t stick with Trump. But even if what you say is true, I still see no path to victory for the GOP in 2024.

Paul_Thomson · 2022-11-15T11:13:03.275Z

peek-a-boo:

My gut tells me that Trump and De Santis will be the last 2 standing. Neither would have the support of both GOP camps, and thus would likely lose to a generic DEM candidate. IMHO

Whoever wins the primary will get the backing of the entire GoP minus any remaining RINOs. It’s policy that the GoP base is focussed on

peek-a-boo · 2022-11-15T14:22:58.136Z

Paul_Thomson:

Whoever wins the primary will get the backing of the entire GoP minus any remaining RINOs. It’s policy that the GoP base is focussed on

Oh, how I wish that were true. Maybe in a not too distant past, but during the Trump era, I just don’t see that happening!

Safiel · 2023-06-30T14:57:34.944Z

Bumping this because Sabato has finally released his first 2024 Electoral College map.

Either he cribbed my map or we both think alike.

The only difference is that he gives the Maine Congressional District #2 Electoral Vote to Trump, whereas I gave it to Biden.

In any event, I still stand on my previous outlook. (Not prediction, outlook.)

NickN · 2023-06-30T18:33:04.404Z

Does impeachment articles being delivered to Senate with no chance of having Biden convicted adversely impact your prediction?

WorldWatcher · 2023-06-30T19:07:55.220Z

NickN:

Does impeachment articles being delivered to Senate with no chance of having Biden convicted adversely impact your prediction?

Probably…

… … Since it will come from the wack-a-doodles,

… … … … It will impove Biden’s standing.

WW

Safiel · 2023-06-30T19:11:57.445Z

NickN:

Does impeachment articles being delivered to Senate with no chance of having Biden convicted adversely impact your prediction?

I don’t think it will make much difference, perhaps very narrowly in Biden’s favor.

NickN · 2023-07-01T16:23:53.148Z

WorldWatcher:

It will impove Biden’s standing.

Will be interesting how from my vantage point Biden gains in the polls when the impeachment inquiry in the Lower Chamber is going on recognizing the Dems for the most part will not really tune in.

Meanwhile the independents who still watch Fox will be downright amazed that the evidence is legit.
For example, actual receipts of deposits in the tens of millions dollars coming into the Biden family bank accounts from foreign countries.

Even recognizing the CNN’s and CBS’s of the world will barely cover it if at all until it gets to Senate Trial verdict where Biden will not be removed from office, I still believe its a reach to expect a lift as you state for Biden in the polls as it relates to his re-election chances.

Maybe you will attempt to clarify how you remain so confident that Biden will not only be further damaged politically after these Articles of Impeachment get presented but also how #46 will gain traction too.

Seems far fetched to believe Biden’s image will improve even a little bit. Imagine even small morsels of this damaging info getting out. A sitting VP! Even the left leaning news outlet’s can not be expected to work miracles here and manage to keep a lid on all of this from getting out into in the public domain…

DougBH · 2023-07-01T16:50:46.584Z

The only way an impeachment hurts Biden politically is if congress is prepared to produce overwhelming detailed evidence of wrong doing, such as actual bank accounts and records of conversations. The Democrat’s two impeachments of Trump were pathetic. They just stated general accusations and then relied on a senate, which had no interest in the thing, to find and display the evidence they didn’t have.

NickN · 2023-07-01T17:45:07.748Z

DougBH:

The only way an impeachment hurts Biden politically is if congress is prepared to produce overwhelming detailed evidence of wrong doing, such as actual bank accounts and records of conversations.

Comer and company will deliver plenty of credible info.

Kind of like OJ Simpson double murder case here with Biden most people believe he is probably guilty of illegal activity but understand Joe will not be taken out.

For people who are still open to hear what the GOP has to say, they will be rewarded with influence to essentially decide with their votes if the Dems deserve to keep the White House or not. My prediction is this impeachment inquiry is merely another nail in the coffin of the deep State. Beyond Biden, there are plenty more bad politicians from both parties. For example, GOP Senator McConnell is another one that has to go too. Too bad Mitch is not up until 2026 as he would be vulnerable if up next November too…

FlameHeart · 2023-07-01T17:48:39.930Z

I will be helping GA turn red.

Safiel · 2023-07-01T19:23:46.480Z

At this point, people just regard impeachment as a political stunt.

They know it will end with no conviction.

I don’t think either side really gives a ■■■■ anymore.

The fact that Biden might be a crooked dirtbag might make a difference.

IF

Republicans nominate a candidate who is NOT a crooked dirtbag.

Biden vs Trump = Dirtbag vs Dirtbag.