The very first 2024 Electoral College thread

Paul_Thomson · 2022-11-15T11:13:03.275Z

peek-a-boo:

My gut tells me that Trump and De Santis will be the last 2 standing. Neither would have the support of both GOP camps, and thus would likely lose to a generic DEM candidate. IMHO

Whoever wins the primary will get the backing of the entire GoP minus any remaining RINOs. It’s policy that the GoP base is focussed on

peek-a-boo · 2022-11-15T14:22:58.136Z

Paul_Thomson:

Whoever wins the primary will get the backing of the entire GoP minus any remaining RINOs. It’s policy that the GoP base is focussed on

Oh, how I wish that were true. Maybe in a not too distant past, but during the Trump era, I just don’t see that happening!

Safiel · 2023-06-30T14:57:34.944Z

Bumping this because Sabato has finally released his first 2024 Electoral College map.

Either he cribbed my map or we both think alike.

The only difference is that he gives the Maine Congressional District #2 Electoral Vote to Trump, whereas I gave it to Biden.

In any event, I still stand on my previous outlook. (Not prediction, outlook.)

NickN · 2023-06-30T18:33:04.404Z

Does impeachment articles being delivered to Senate with no chance of having Biden convicted adversely impact your prediction?

WorldWatcher · 2023-06-30T19:07:55.220Z

NickN:

Does impeachment articles being delivered to Senate with no chance of having Biden convicted adversely impact your prediction?

Probably…

… … Since it will come from the wack-a-doodles,

… … … … It will impove Biden’s standing.

WW

Safiel · 2023-06-30T19:11:57.445Z

NickN:

Does impeachment articles being delivered to Senate with no chance of having Biden convicted adversely impact your prediction?

I don’t think it will make much difference, perhaps very narrowly in Biden’s favor.

NickN · 2023-07-01T16:23:53.148Z

WorldWatcher:

It will impove Biden’s standing.

Will be interesting how from my vantage point Biden gains in the polls when the impeachment inquiry in the Lower Chamber is going on recognizing the Dems for the most part will not really tune in.

Meanwhile the independents who still watch Fox will be downright amazed that the evidence is legit.
For example, actual receipts of deposits in the tens of millions dollars coming into the Biden family bank accounts from foreign countries.

Even recognizing the CNN’s and CBS’s of the world will barely cover it if at all until it gets to Senate Trial verdict where Biden will not be removed from office, I still believe its a reach to expect a lift as you state for Biden in the polls as it relates to his re-election chances.

Maybe you will attempt to clarify how you remain so confident that Biden will not only be further damaged politically after these Articles of Impeachment get presented but also how #46 will gain traction too.

Seems far fetched to believe Biden’s image will improve even a little bit. Imagine even small morsels of this damaging info getting out. A sitting VP! Even the left leaning news outlet’s can not be expected to work miracles here and manage to keep a lid on all of this from getting out into in the public domain…

DougBH · 2023-07-01T16:50:46.584Z

The only way an impeachment hurts Biden politically is if congress is prepared to produce overwhelming detailed evidence of wrong doing, such as actual bank accounts and records of conversations. The Democrat’s two impeachments of Trump were pathetic. They just stated general accusations and then relied on a senate, which had no interest in the thing, to find and display the evidence they didn’t have.

NickN · 2023-07-01T17:45:07.748Z

DougBH:

The only way an impeachment hurts Biden politically is if congress is prepared to produce overwhelming detailed evidence of wrong doing, such as actual bank accounts and records of conversations.

Comer and company will deliver plenty of credible info.

Kind of like OJ Simpson double murder case here with Biden most people believe he is probably guilty of illegal activity but understand Joe will not be taken out.

For people who are still open to hear what the GOP has to say, they will be rewarded with influence to essentially decide with their votes if the Dems deserve to keep the White House or not. My prediction is this impeachment inquiry is merely another nail in the coffin of the deep State. Beyond Biden, there are plenty more bad politicians from both parties. For example, GOP Senator McConnell is another one that has to go too. Too bad Mitch is not up until 2026 as he would be vulnerable if up next November too…

FlameHeart · 2023-07-01T17:48:39.930Z

I will be helping GA turn red.

Safiel · 2023-07-01T19:23:46.480Z

At this point, people just regard impeachment as a political stunt.

They know it will end with no conviction.

I don’t think either side really gives a ■■■■ anymore.

The fact that Biden might be a crooked dirtbag might make a difference.

IF

Republicans nominate a candidate who is NOT a crooked dirtbag.

Biden vs Trump = Dirtbag vs Dirtbag.

NickN · 2023-07-01T19:41:45.527Z

Safiel:

At this point, people just regard impeachment as a political stunt.

They know it will end with no conviction.

I don’t think either side really gives a ■■■■ anymore.

The fact that Biden might be a crooked dirtbag might make a difference.

IF

IF

IF

Republicans nominate a candidate who is NOT a crooked dirtbag.

Biden vs Trump = Dirtbag vs Dirtbag.

Difference here is contents of Biden laptop are not a political stunt. And a road map to bring down the Deep State. Comparing Biden to Trump in this regard is lame as everything against #45 is political.

conan · 2023-07-01T19:49:57.262Z

Pa may be back in play…

WuWei · 2023-07-01T19:53:08.532Z

Neither are the boxes of classified documents Trump hid.

NickN · 2023-07-01T20:01:57.561Z

WuWei:

Neither are the boxes of classified documents Trump hid.

Please spare us the deflection as even you know the establishment is out to GET Trump for pure political reasons.

WuWei · 2023-07-01T20:16:36.231Z

Open your right eye.

conan · 2023-07-02T00:01:38.146Z

NickN:

Please spare us the deflection as even you know the establishment is out to GET Trump for pure political reasons.

Trump is his own worst enemy.

Remember when Trump told the world on June 8th that he was going to be indicted on charges of mishandling classified documents, what other story that broke just hours before he made that announcement?

NickN · 2023-07-02T01:03:53.680Z

The Dem leadership hate a lot about America. For example, the Constitution, Conservative Supreme Court justices and certain political opponents top the list.

SixFoot · 2023-07-02T16:21:37.937Z

FlameHeart:

I will be helping GA turn red.

image780×695 168 KB

Safiel · 2023-07-27T22:00:53.711Z

UPDATE

Cook has FINALLY released his first Electoral College outlook for 2024.

Two differences (one major, both surprising) differences from Sabato’s and my own outlook.

Cook holds Nevada as lean Democrat rather than tossup.
Cook holds Pennsylvania as tossup rather than lean Democrat.

Democrats
209 Solid
17 Likely
21 Lean
247 total

Republicans
148 Solid
71 Likely
16 Lean
235 total

56 tossup

It paints a slightly more optimistic scenario for Republicans, though still a difficult one.

Again, I should reiterate, these are all outlooks at this time, NOT predictions. Obviously, the final choice of Presidential nominees and other factors could change the balance.