The latest with the Senate races

MichaelScarn · 2018-10-21T03:26:32.410Z

The polling in Tennessee is wild. It swung so hard that even Bredesen basically conceded, but now he’s up in a new poll.

coolidge · 2018-10-21T03:37:48.628Z

reflechissez:

Guvnah:

Tilly_jow:

By 2020 there will be enough R senate seats in play to flip the senate and enough voters will have come to there senses that the 4 year nightmare of Trump will be over.

It comes and goes in cycles. Normally the mid-term elections favor the party that doesn’t hold the White House, but so many (D)s are in play that I expect (R)s to gain a seat or two.

2020 will be the (R)s turn to play defense. It will take some strong showings by Trump’s administration to provide the momentum and coattails to retain the (R) share in 2 years. (On the flip side Trump might be such a liability that (R)s get mowed down.) 2020 is so far away that it’s impossible to predict. Any predictions now about 2020 just reflect the prognosticator’s hopes and little more. Trump is such a wild card that the fortunes of the GOP vary from day to day. Forget about trying to guess what 2 more years will bring.

It’s not impossible to predict. Predictions are always being made.

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Tilly_jow · 2018-10-21T04:23:04.478Z

coolidge:

Record high stock market and record low unemployment. Making America great must be hard for liberals

Except it’s not like turned anything around like Obama did. He’ll always have to live with continuing Obama’s streak.

Hexenbiest · 2018-10-21T07:47:25.437Z

I’m not sure what Obama turned around? Are you referring to quantitative easing (Printing Money) which was brought on by Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve? That has zero to do with Obama, just like watching Trump freak out that the Fed keeps raising interest rates. I think people on both sides tend to give Presidents way to much credit for the economy.

Presidents shouldn’t but often start wars before congress votes on them which can effect the economy, they also have broad power in trade, as we can see in tariffs. One can argue which presidents trade platform benefits America the most but Obama didn’t save the economy, anymore than Trump did.

zantax · 2018-10-21T12:36:35.489Z

Not to mention the two chief things they point to as Obama turning around the economy, TARP and the auto bail out, were put in place by George Bush before he left office.

sikofit · 2018-10-22T02:53:44.416Z

zantax:

Not to mention the two chief things they point to as Obama turning around the economy, TARP and the auto bail out, were put in place by George Bush before he left office.

So was the The U.S.–Iraq Status of Forces Agreement but that didn’t/doesn’t stop Republicans from assigning that to Obama.

Tilly_jow · 2018-10-22T04:31:33.056Z

sikofit:

zantax:

Not to mention the two chief things they point to as Obama turning around the economy, TARP and the auto bail out, were put in place by George Bush before he left office.

So was the The U.S.–Iraq Status of Forces Agreement but that didn’t/doesn’t stop Republicans from assigning that to Obama.

And if the infamous double dip recession had hit, which repugs were constantly predicting, that too would have been all on Obama and so much for presidents not getting credit/blame for the economy.

Chris · 2018-10-22T19:21:34.411Z

The Arizona Republic recently ended up endorsing Sinema for Senate in Arizona here. However, I am not too sure if their endorsement of Sinema is going to help her out that much.

The Hill – 21 Oct 18

Arizona newspaper backs Democrat in dead heat Senate race

The Arizona Republic is backing Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) in her contentious Senate race against Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.), the paper announced in an editorial on Sunday. The endo…

Joanne · 2018-10-22T20:53:07.339Z

The problem is there has been scant polling in key states, such as MO, IN, WV, and FL. Maybe there is the assumption that Dems are going to win those races again and it’s not close, but just today there was another ND poll which showed Cramer with an even bigger lead than previously, 16 points. So I think most pundits wrote off ND awhile ago.

Anyway, if Rs hold Nevada and Arizona, which is looking more possible now, and only pick up ND, they will have 52 seats, but with a much tougher map in 2020 the Dems would have an excellent chance of flipping the Senate at that time.

Chris · 2018-10-22T21:51:47.030Z

Senator Heitkamp is now toast. Senators Manchin and Donnelly should win their reelection bids. AZ, MO, NV, and FL are all still too close to really predict who will win in these states.

Joanne · 2018-10-22T21:55:19.071Z

Have you seen any recent polling from WV, IN or MO? I haven’t.

There were two NYT polls last week for NV and AZ, both had the R up by 2 but that’s basically a tied race. If I had to guess though I would say Rs will win both by a small margin. Arizona is a purple state, and while Nevada has been trending more towards Ds, every poll I’ve seen has Heller with a small lead, and he did win in 2012 which was the Obama year.

Chris · 2018-10-22T22:20:18.910Z

RealClearPolitics now has Senator Donnelly up by 2.4 percentage points. Link
A recent poll from Gravis Marketing has Senator Donnelly up by 4 percentage points.

Joanne · 2018-10-22T22:24:25.189Z

OK thanks. Looks like a few races could remain very very close on election night.

Joanne · 2018-10-26T01:58:13.619Z

This is quite significant. Nevada has been trending blue in recent years, but I guess they like Heller. Not over of course, but he’s obviously in a decent position heading to the home stretch.

twitter.com

Political Polls

@PpollingNumbers

#NEW @FiveThirtyEight has moved#NVSen for the first time from tossup to lean R

11:10 PM - 25 Oct 2018 650 240

NuffSaid · 2018-10-26T10:50:18.931Z

Polls have had Heller at +2 for a little while. Still a toss up, interesting that polls haven’t moved much.

Joanne · 2018-10-26T17:59:41.489Z

The Cook Political Report moved the NJ Senate race to toss up. I don’t believe Menendez is going to lose, but it’s obviously close. A Dem Super Pac has put $6M into this race in the last few weeks, they wouldn’t be doing that if it was in the bag. However it does mean they are having to spend money in a race that normally wouldn’t be competitive.

Joanne · 2018-10-26T18:03:38.189Z

Yeah, I don’t really know why 538 did that. Heller might be slightly favored, but most polls show it near a dead heat.

NuffSaid · 2018-10-26T18:54:15.743Z

I wonder if its because Heller keeps posting slight + numbers in polls.

Joanne · 2018-10-26T19:04:33.185Z

Well he is showing to be consistently ahead, but just barely. It seems to be a perfect fit for the "toss up’ category.

Chris · 2018-10-29T02:35:03.013Z

The latest from 538:

Indiana Dem Donnelly — 67.7%
Nevada Rep Heller ------- 59.4%
Arizona Dem Sinema — 63.8%
Florida Dem Nelson ----- 72.0%
Missouri Dem McCaskill – 58.1%
Montana Dem Tester ----- 85.4%

FiveThirtyEight – 11 Sep 18

2018 Senate Forecast

FiveThirtyEight's predictions for the 2018 Senate elections