Assuming Biden pulls this win off today or tomorrow (rub it in if he doesn’t!), the GOP should be very scared for 2024. Here is why Democrats have a very large advantage for 2024:
From the Republican Perspective
Trump lost to an old guy in a basement, who had no ground game and was the worst candidate in history. I emphasize no ground game. Due to COVID-19, Democrats didn’t have much of a formal ground game.
Trump lost despite having the greatest economy in the history of the world & being the greatest POTUS for blacks since Lincoln. What more could he have done? He was the greatest POTUS on almost everything.
Trump was a once in a generation candidate. The “head of the snake”. No one does “Trumpism” like Trump. There will be emulators, but when Trump is gone, that’s it. His megaphone turns into a boom mic.
After the 2016 election, Republicans controlled the House, Senate & Presidency. In 2020, they will have lost 2/3. It’s very rare to lose all 3 in one term. Losing the House AND the Presidency after only 1 term is nothing to brag about or be proud of.
If Trump continues to be involved in politics via mass media, radio/tv, he will divide the GOP and return the Republican party to it’s 2008 - 2016 divide. He doesn’t personally need party unity anymore, so he will pit the party against each other just like he did in the primaries during the 2016 election.
It is very unlikely that another GOP candidate will be able to get the kind of rural turnout that Trump got
From The Democratic Perspective
2024 weaknesses are clearly broadcasted given the results of 2020. The party will likely re-focus, re-organize and get rid of the ‘old guard’ in an attempt to win back independents, Hispanics & Cubans.
Republicans were correct to disregard polling, for the most part. Democrats will now join in this skepticism after getting burned again in the rust belt.
I think Biden will not run for re-election. This allows the Democrats to get a fresh start in 2024, with new faces, new leadership and a new message.
This new message can disregard Trump and COVID-19, assuming COVID-19 is history by 2024 (God, I hope so)
Biden will be riding the tail winds of a COVID-19 recovery & vaccine.
Georgia is ripe for the taking in 2024. Texas continues to slowly shift blue. The “blue wall” is still reliable, despite the once in a lifetime Trump candidacy.
Mail-in ballots are probably here to stay.
Again, IF Biden pulls this off, it’s a huge loss for the GOP. This election was their “ULTIMATE”. In gaming, this refers to an ability that takes a long time to build up, but when used, exhausts all of the power potential of the character. Trump won by razor thin margins in 2016, and couldn’t hold. Republicans, even with their “ULTIMATE” (Donald Trump) struggled. Sure, they had some major gains in the courts, but as time move forward, and Georgia, Texas & the Rust Belts shift/maintain blue, Trump may be the last breath of the Republican party, as the party exhausts all of their remaining energy.
Oh no, some other Republican might shift focus to where the votes are instead of sparsely populated areas. No, the danger is they go back to being puppets for the chamber of commerce and the party of all we care about are lower tax rates for business. But given everyone saw Trump sweep them up by at least pretending to care I see no reason they would give that up. Blue collar workers should be welcomed into the tent and their concerns addressed . Meanwhile democrats have all but declared war on white men and wonder why white men don’t vote for them any more.
Trump never swept up anything except for huge rural turnouts. He won the rust belt by razor thin margins and couldn’t hold it after only one term. If Biden wins, Trump is gone anyway. The question is: can only Trump be Trump?
I’m looking forward to the emulators. Trumpism only works if you can avoid follow up inquiry from the public.
He can do the “Many people are saying X” because nobody expects a clown like him to answer the “Who?”. The principal defense he had against multiple scandals is ignorance of the law, ignorance of ethics, or just plain trolling.
It takes decades of public buffoonery to build up that much immunity to accountability, and there’s nobody in the GOP bullpen who’s ready to substitute in.
He ran on better health care for all, funded by the government. And couldn’t even get his own congress to write a bill on the subject. The GOP and the RW media that supports it spent 8 years demonizing universal health care to protect their donor base and to keep ratings high. it’s one thing for the POTUS to make empty promises about helping americans with HC, but it’s very difficult to get teh GOP profit bus to turn itself around on issues like this…
So, how do they affect the change we agree they need? Just not seeing it.
I think, assuming Biden wins, were gonna see the GOP and it’s RW media support team snap back into traditional GOP stances, just like those old Mr. Rubber dolls…they are just gonna reform in the old form…screaming about deficits, and free markets, and bashing low wage workers, and demanding free access to world markets.
I hope I’m wrong, but I just don’t see the profit in making systemic foundational changes to the Grand Old Party.