The 8 Senate races to watch

Joanne · 2018-08-30T03:53:35.841Z

I think Martha McSally has an excellent chance of keeping the Arizona seat red. She seems very disciplined, has a great personal story, and won’t be afraid to take the gloves off if the race turns nasty (and most of them do). Plus I don’t think she’s gone too Trumpy as some of the other candidates have.

I also think Rick Scott has a very good chance of winning. If McSally and Scott both win, Rs will probably end up with a net gain, because chances are very good they will flip at least one red state.

Joanne · 2018-08-30T03:54:37.651Z

Also something most media ignored yesterday (to no surprise) is that R turnout was higher than D turnout in both Arizona and Florida. So maybe there isn’t such an enthusiasm gap in statewide races.

Camp · 2018-08-30T11:39:28.109Z

Lou Barletta will upset Bob Casey Jr in PA.

This will be won on economy and border enforcement.

biggestal99 · 2018-08-30T11:57:23.226Z

LucyLou:

Tammy Baldwin has a very real chance of losing to Leah Vukmir in Wisconsin.

Very little chance Baldwin loses. Maybe 20-1 against.

Allan

biggestal99 · 2018-08-30T11:58:38.302Z

Camp:

Lou Barletta will upset Bob Casey Jr in PA.

Very little chance of Barletta winning this senate, see PA-18 special election for details

Allan

biggestal99 · 2018-08-30T12:00:43.633Z

Joanne:

The NJ Senate race is much closer than most had anticipated.

Very little change of Menendez losing.

Jersey people aint voting a R to the senate, not in todays ultrapartisan climate.

Allan

biggestal99 · 2018-08-30T12:03:55.271Z

Chris:

West Virginia - Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is the most conservative Democratic Senator, and he is pretty popular in West Virginia. But Trump is very popular in West Virginia, and WV is the state that Trump got his largest margin of victory. I dont know who will win this Senate race

Manchin extremely popular. WV voters also voted in Justice to the Governors seat as a member of the Democratic Party.

very little chance of Manchin losing.

Allan

Camp · 2018-08-30T12:15:27.125Z

About the same as Trump winning the Presidency…

MichaelScarn · 2018-08-30T12:18:21.293Z

That’s actually appropriate, considering Trump got destroyed in the popular vote, and Senate races are not exposed to the same ridiculousness of the electoral college. These 8 races should lean Democrat, but there’s a punchers chance that the GOP takes 2 or 3 of them, since Trump had about a 25% chance of winning.

NuffSaid · 2018-08-30T16:22:58.209Z

Casey is up +13 in the latest poll.

If you look at trends, right now Casey is trending downwards from +18 in April to +13 in the latest. Its gonna take a bit more closing of the margins before one can get nervous about Casey losing his seat.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_barletta_vs_casey-6312.html

moonshine · 2018-08-30T16:28:46.896Z

cruz and beto are neck and neck in texas

Camp · 2018-08-30T16:37:16.628Z

It is a long shot. Barletta needs to get his message out and be energetic. I am not wild about the metal detector ad, though it is true the kids should have them first. The stark contrast is in work ethic and economic policy and if enough voters are reached, and upset could be had. Barletta is a likeable guy, nothing like Wagner or the guy Connor Lamb defeated.

armycowboy · 2018-08-30T16:38:21.057Z

moonshine:

cruz and beto are neck and neck in texas

Cruz will win, but I’m interested in what the final vote looks like. There’s definitely a lot more enthusiasm for Beto.

biggestal99 · 2018-08-30T16:46:43.914Z

Camp:

About the same as Trump winning the Presidency

slightly less than that…

Allan

biggestal99 · 2018-08-30T17:20:42.399Z

Camp:

It is a long shot. Barletta needs to get his message out and be energetic. I am not wild about the metal detector ad, though it is true the kids should have them first. The stark contrast is in work ethic and economic policy and if enough voters are reached, and upset could be had. Barletta is a likeable guy, nothing like Wagner or the guy Connor Lamb defeated.

I know you like him and all.

Just gathering no traction among voters todays F&M Poll

LancasterOnline

F&M poll: Gov. Tom Wolf and Sen. Bob Casey keep almost 20-point leads...

Gov. Tom Wolf and U.S. Sen. Bob Casey are maintaining comfortable 20-point leads over their Republican challengers two months before election day, a new statewide Franklin & Marshall College poll

“And President Donald Trump, meanwhile, is weighing heavily on the minds of both Democratic and Republican voters in Pennsylvania. With a steady 38 percent job approval rating, the president is “an essential motivating force” in the U.S. Senate and House races in the state this fall, according to the poll.”

the Trump Presidency is an albatross around every Republican candidates neck.

38% approval.

Thats bad. really bad.

Just does bode well two months out.

Allan

conan · 2018-08-30T17:31:50.189Z

Interesting news…wonder if it will carry over to Nov.

LucyLou · 2018-08-30T17:36:28.103Z

biggestal99:

Very little chance Baldwin loses. Maybe 20-1 against.

Allan

If she wins, the margin will be razor thin. Koch’s just dumped in a crap load of ad $$$ for the R candidate.

biggestal99 · 2018-08-30T18:17:48.713Z

LucyLou:

If she wins, the margin will be razor thin. Koch’s just dumped in a crap load of ad $$$ for the R candidate.

waste of money. Baldwin will win.

Allan

NuffSaid · 2018-09-26T16:20:40.336Z

Adding an update, all based on RealClearPolitics:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

RCP has 9 races in the “Toss Up” Category. Dems need to win 7 of the 9, and everything else stay the way races have shaped up to regain control of Senate.

In Arizona - McSally vs Simema - Right now RCP has Sinema at +2.5 based on average of polls. The last 4 polls all have favored Sinema.

In Florida - Scott vs Nelson - Right now RCP has Nelson at +1.1 based on average. The last 2 polls have favored Nelson.

In Indiana - Braun vs Donnelly - Right now RCP has Donnelly at +2.0 based on average. Most recent poll had Braun +2.

In Missouri - Hawley vs McCaskill - Right now RCP has Hawley at +0.6 based on average. Most recent poll had Hawlwy at +3. What’s interesting is three previous polls had them tied.

In Montana - Tester vs Rosendale - Right now RCP has Tester at +3.0 based on average. Last 3 polls have favored Tester.

In Nevada - Rosen vs Heller - Right now RCP has Rosen at +0.7 based on average. Last 2 polls have favored Rosen.

In North Dakota - Cramer vs Heitkamp - Right now RCP has Cramer at +1.6 based on average. Last 2 polls have favored Cramer.

In Tennessee - Bresden vs Blackburn - Right now RCP has this a tie. The last 4 polls have alternated between the candidates.

In Texas - Cruz vs O’Rourke - Right now RCP has Cruz at +4.5. Last 4 polls have favored Cruz.

Of the 9, 8 are within the MOE. Only Cruz is outside the MOE.

Its gonna be a nail biter. Hopefully a few more polls come in and this can be re-assessed come closer to Nov.

TommyLucchese · 2018-09-26T18:15:20.569Z

Camp:

Lou Barletta will upset Bob Casey Jr in PA.

This will be won on economy and border enforcement

He’s losing by Rick Santorum numbers lol.