J-A-8 2020 TRUMP
Here is the way to look at 2020.
Leave the map results the same except remove FL, PA, MI, and WI.
If everything else remains the same, the Electoral College sits at:
Democrat = 232
Trump = 231
To win the election either candidate would have to win FL and one of the 3 states PA, MI, or WI.
Or
If a candidate loses FL, they can still win the election by winning all 3, PA, MI, and WI.
If you have the mind set to look for additional changes
then Trump has the advantage here.
Trump now has Ohio, Iowa, and Maine CD 2 locked.
The Democrat will not be able to win AZ, NC, GA, or TX.
6 states Clinton won are still in Trump’s range to win.
New Hampshire
lost by 0.37% (for 4)
Minnesota
lost by 1.51% (for 10)
Nevada
lost by 2.42% (for 6)
Maine State winner
lost by 2.96% (for 2)
Colorado
lost by 4.91% (for 9)
Virginia
lost by 5.32% (for 13)
Advantage Trump
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Trump’s election in 2020 is set in 5 groups of States
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Group 1
The 20 States Trump won by over 14.00% margin each
for 126 electoral college votes
WY, WV, OK, ND, ID, KY, SD, AL, AR, TN
NE, KS, MT, IA, IN, MO, UT, MS, AK, SC
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Group 2
The other 4 from the Romney 24
for 80 electoral college votes
TX, GA, NC, AZ
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Group 3
High margin additions
for 25 electoral college votes
OH, IA, Maine CD 2
Won by 8.07%, 9.41%, 10.28% respectively
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Group 4
for 29 electoral college votes
Florida
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Group 5
Battlegrounds
Where most of rallies must be
Where the RNC must start in 2018
If Trump has the 260 from groups 1-4, one of these 7 wins Trump the election.
If Trump losses Florida or any State in groups 1-4, he must make it up from these States only.
No other states available.
1- Colorado - 9 for the tie and house vote win
2- Minnesota 10
3- Wisconsin 10
4- Virginia 13
5- Michigan 16
6- Pennsylvania 20
7- New Hampshire 4 plus Nevada 6 = 10
It is important Trump starts right now.
It is important the RNC starts right now.
Trump can go to these states and give speeches.
More importantly talk to the people there, like Trump did in the campaign.
Real one on one talk with industry and business leaders, community leaders, police and fire departments, clergy, and citizens is what Trump must do.
Work to make the difference in the lives of the people.
Let the Democrat have the Hillary 14 lock States and DC.
The media has divided the country.
We can not allow the media to win.
We beat them in 2016 and we must beat them again in 2020.
If we put Virginia and Colorado as Democrat locks for 2020
Here is how the map looks like for Trump
Trump Locks
206 Electoral College Votes
Includes all of Nebraska
NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, AR, TX, TN, KY, WV, IN,
MO, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, MT, ID, UT, AZ, AK
Democrat Locks
210 Electoral College Votes
NM, OR, DE, CT, NJ, RI, WA, IL, NY, VT, MD, MA, CA, HI,
VA, CO, DC, MAINE CD 1
10 States and Maine CD 2 up for grabs
122 Electoral College Votes
FL 29
PA 20
OH 18
MI 16
WI 10
MN 10
NV 6
IA 6
NH 4
MAINE STATE WINNER=2
MAINE CD 2 = 1
Trump has 71 combinations on the board for a tie or win
FL, PA, OH = 67
FL, PA, MI = 65
FL, PA, WI, MN = 69
FL, PA, WI, NV = 65
FL, PA, WI, IA = 65
FL, PA, WI, NH = 63
FL, PA, WI, NH, MAINE CD2 = 64
FL, PA, MN, NV = 65
FL, PA, MN, IA = 65
FL, PA, MN, NH = 63
FL, PA, MN, NH, MAINE CD 2 = 64
FL, PA, NV, IA, NH = 65
FL, PA, NV, IA, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 64
FL, OH, MI = 63
FL, OH, MI, WI = 73
FL, OH, MI, MN = 73
FL, OH, MI, NV = 69
FL, OH, MI, IA = 69
FL, OH, MI, NH = 67
FL, OH, MI, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 65
FL, OH, MI, MAINE CD 2 = 64
FL, OH, WI, MN = 67
FL, OH, WI, NV = 63
FL, OH, WI, NV, MAINE CD 2 = 64
FL, OH, WI, IA = 63
FL, OH, WI, IA, MAINE CD 2 = 64
FL OH, WI, NH, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 64
FL, OH, MN, NV = 63
FL, OH, MN, NV, MAINE CD 2 = 64
FL, OH, MN, IA = 63
FL, OH, MN, IA, MAINE CD 2 = 64
FL ,OH, MN, NH, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 64
FL, OH, NV, IA, NH = 63
FL, OH, NV, IA, NH, MAINE CD 2 = 64
FL, MI, WI, MN = 65
FL, MI, WI, NV, IA = 67
FL, MI, WI, NV, NH = 65
FL, MI, WI, IA, NH = 65
FL, MI, WI, NV, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 64
FL, MI, WI, IA, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 64
FL, MI, MN, NV, IA = 67
FL, MI, MN, NV, NH = 65
FL, MI, MN, IA, NH = 65
FL, MI, MN, NV, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 64
FL, MI, MN, IA, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 64
FL, MI, NV, IA, NH, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 65
PA, OH, MI, WI = 64
PA, OH, MI, MN = 64
PA, OH, MI, NV, IA = 66
PA, OH, MI, NV, NH = 64
PA, OH, MI, IA, NH = 64
PA, OH, MI, NV, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 63
PA, OH, MI, IA, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 63
PA, OH, WI, MN, NV = 64
PA, OH, WI, MN, IA = 64
PA, OH, WI, MN, NH, ME STATE + ME CD 2 - 65
PA, OH, WI, MN, NH, ME CD 2 = 63
PA, MI, WI, MN, NV, IA = 68
PA, MI, WI, MN, NV, NH = 66
PA, MI, WI, MN, IA NH =66
PA, MI, WI, MN, NV, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 65
PA, MI, WI, MN, NV, ME CD 2 = 63
PA, MI, WI, MN, IA, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 65
PA, MI, WI, MN, IA, ME CD 2 = 63
OH, MI, WI, MN, NV, IA = 66
OH, MI, WI, MN, NV, NH = 64
OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, NH = 64
OH, MI, WI, MN, NV, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 63
OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 63
OH, MI, WI, NV, IA, NH, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 63
OH, MI, MN, NV, IA, NH, ME STATE + ME CD 2 = 63
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If we put Virginia and Colorado as up for grabs, then the number of combinations for Trump increases from 71 to 257.
Trump may not have the luxury of going after VA and CO,
but if there was a way, I would say go for them.
The more the map is expanded the better the chance of diluting the Democrat’s efforts.
Which was part of what happened to Clinton in 2016.
By winning Maine State winner, VA, NH, NV, CO, and MN, Clinton took away 247 of the 257 paths Trump had.
Clinton’s problem was she needed to take away all 257 paths.
This is what I was writing on MSNBC in the summer of 2016.
I showed how it was mathematically nearly impossible for Clinton to win.
Instead of defending the right States, Clinton went on offense that was not necessary.
Clinton tried for states she did not need, could not win, and did not win.
NC, GA, TX, MO, AZ, and UT
I found evidence in the final data Clinton went after Kansas.
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