SWAMP THING: McCaskill holds narrow edge in 538 model

MichaelScarn · 2018-10-16T02:10:55.547Z

Missouri - 2018 Senate Forecast

FiveThirtyEight's predictions for the 2018 Senate elections in the Missouri seat

Missouri State elections are always interesting. Trump dominated the state, but in 2016 formerly rising liberal star Jason Kander outperformed Hillary by 16 points state wide, and McCaskill has obviously held the seat for two terms. I don’t expect Beto, Bredesen or Heitkamp to win, but states like Missouri, Nevada and Arizona will be the interesting races. A serious disconnect has emerged between house polling and Senate polling. The House races seem to be breaking more towards the Democrats since the Kavanaugh confirmation, while the Senate races are breaking towards the Republicans. Missouri hasn’t ever really moved away from being a dead heat though. My money is on McCaskill.

calirepub · 2018-10-16T02:20:38.091Z

I don’t expect anything good to ever happen again.

MichaelScarn · 2018-10-16T02:28:36.517Z

I felt that way until I watched the VA election, and then Georgia, and the three dozen or so state races that the dems poached. The Dems aren’t going to take the senate but they will guaranteed flip some state houses.

MichaelScarn · 2018-10-16T02:37:44.525Z

SWAMP THING McCaskill has raised an insane amount of money in this race. $23 million compared to Hawley’s $7 million. Fundraising is usually a leading indicator of voter enthusiasm/turnout.

MichaelScarn · 2018-10-16T02:53:19.825Z

another fun fact is that both candidates in this race are running ads claiming they are for protecting preexisting conditions. While Hawley is just flat out lying, it’s interesting that even 2 years ago no republican would even dream of running such an ad. Imagine that, the GOP defending a central tenet of Obamacare in 2018.

Forcefield · 2018-10-16T03:31:48.667Z

MichaelScarn:

another fun fact is that both candidates in this race are running ads claiming they are for protecting preexisting conditions. While Hawley is just flat out lying**, it’s interesting that even 2 years ago no republican would even dream of running such an ad.** Imagine that, the GOP defending a central tenet of Obamacare in 201

This is how it goes. Liberals loosen the jar lid. Within 20 years conservatives will congratulate themselves for legalizing gay marriage.

Hell it didn’t take that long for quite a handful of them to be against the Patriot Act and Iraq war.

MichaelScarn · 2018-10-16T03:33:14.227Z

Forcefield:

This is how it goes. Liberals loosen the jar lid. Within 20 years conservatives will congratulate themselves for legalizing gay marriage.

Hell it didn’t take that long for quite a handful of them to be against the Patriot Act and Iraq war.

It’s only because of GOP opposition that we got pre-existing conditions covered! Obama was just going to give us private insurance but we fought for that first step to single payer and we never looked back!

Joanne · 2018-10-16T04:58:31.166Z

MichaelScarn:

SWAMP THING McCaskill has raised an insane amount of money in this race. $23 million compared to Hawley’s $7 million. Fundraising is usually a leading indicator of voter enthusiasm/turnout.

Not necessarily. Beto raised $38M in a single quarter, and he’s most likely going to lose.

I agree with what you are saying about the House and Senate, it looks as though they are headed in opposite directions. Of course many Senate seats up are in very red states, which would explain a lot of it. However, hopes Dems may have had of flipping TN and Texas are most likely gone now.

MichaelScarn · 2018-10-16T11:09:55.485Z

Joanne:

Not necessarily. Beto raised $38M in a single quarter, and he’s most likely going to lose.

I agree with what you are saying about the House and Senate, it looks as though they are headed in opposite directions. Of course many Senate seats up are in very red states, which would explain a lot of it. However, hopes Dems may have had of flipping TN and Texas are most likely gone now.

The senate map was always unfavorable for dems, so it was really a surprise that they even had a chance, let alone looked seriously competitive in every race. However it appears that undecideds are coming home for GOP Senators but maybe are holding house members more accountable.

What I want to know is what has gone through someone’s mind that they would vote for Hillary in 2016, but a Dem congressman in 2018 and a GOP Senator. Or the flip of that which is voted for Trump in 2016 and a GOP congressman in 2018, but a Democratic Senator. Midterm polling is producing some schizophrenic results.

JayJay · 2018-10-16T11:25:46.256Z

MichaelScarn:

another fun fact is that both candidates in this race are running ads claiming they are for protecting preexisting conditions. While Hawley is just flat out lying, it’s interesting that even 2 years ago no republican would even dream of running such an ad. Imagine that, the GOP defending a central tenet of Obamacare in 2018.

In Pennsylvania, Republicans are running on giving more money to public education.

Not vouchers (well the vouchers are there but obscured by “legalese” language).

Actually running on giving more money to public education.

Astounding.

MichaelScarn · 2018-10-16T11:27:30.169Z

JayJay:

In Pennsylvania, Republicans are running on giving more money to public education.

Not vouchers (well the vouchers are there but obscured by “legalese” language).

Actually running on giving more money to public education.

Astounding.

they have to do something because democrats are going to take them out back and stomp on their faces with golf spikes.

The flip of Pennsylvania from red to blue next month is going to be glorious.