So, thinking about that article, one worrisome thing stands out - the staying in hammer until the R factor goes below one. When you start chasing numbers like that, you have a tendency to ignore weak signals from other threats until it’s too late.
When do we start the lockdown? I’m still seeing roughly half the usual traffic on the roadway, and I am in NJ. And as I have mentioned before I am a toll collector, so I can see the numbers every day. It’s at about 50% between the hours of 6AM to 6PM.
Interesting.
What weak signals might you be thinking of?
Economy crashing beyond recovery, other diseases, military conflict, terrorism, basically any other type of threat.
Mostly economy. I believe the economy is much more fragile than we realize and that it is possible for us to damage it beyond generational repair. Somebody said it earlier; poverty costs lives.
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Ah yes. Agreed.
There is a whole section in the paper regarding economic impacts and costs.
The author does state that the data behind those costs is incomplete and we need to do our best to fill that data in…because a clear understanding of the “ROI of Social Distancing” is the most important thing we could do for policymakers to try and tease out those “weak signals”.
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I saw it. I think he’s underestimating the damage already done and the resilience of the system.
We aren’t good at detecting weak signals for a host of reasons. Call it human nature.
Of course you do, say, aren’t you a communist who wants the country to collapse?
Again, I agree.
This strategy still seems the best way forward because it’s short and timelines are defined, removing some of the uncertainty from the equation.
However I am reading up on some other articles right now to assess economic impacts.
For now trying to figure out which sectors of the economy are likely to be fractured beyond repair due to a shutdown of any length, and how might that manifest.
To me the biggest risk is the loading of debt into a system already saddled with debt.
And I’m not talking about sovereign debt, but debt from a new type of company (well, not new, but they comprise a far larger share of our economy now than they ever did in the past) that is one of the reasons I have said much of our economic growth is an illusion…the “zombie company”.
These are companies at least ten years old but are loaded with so much debt (years of artificially low interest rates coming home to roost) that they only make enough revenues to service their debt…they make no profits.
These companies are now 16% of off the publicly traded companies in the US- in Europe they are close to 10% of the companies. They are mostly in the commodities sector- HEAVILY concentrated in energy production (the oil war with Saudi Arabia and Russia now begins to make some sense).
They go under because of a prolonged shutdown? That’s hugely consequential.
And we have been ignoring for years that these zombie companies have grown so much, especially in such an important sector as energy. Their existence is why low oil prices are bad.
Subjective.
I don’t think you can segment like that.
Relative,
Shorter than it would be not doing it.
Unless we are lucky and May/June heat kills the thing.
Pray for global warming just this once…
I don’t disagree.
I see your point. Why is the interest rate artificial and would these companies even have been possible with a higher one?
Interesting. Any specific examples?
I agree. Does your hammer & dance consider this?
I’m not sure I follow that. I probably do. Another two weeks and it’s probably going to happen, then we won’t have to worry about it, until next time.
Subjective, depending on position.
I think this economic hit will also get rid of some of the garbage in the economy as well. Unfortunately it doesn’t disappear, it moves.
You do realize they are rationalizing moving from hammer to dance as we speak, right? Probably right after Easter.
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Yeah but we are not really hammering yet.
We shall see.
And as I was researching more on zombie companies to get your answer, I discovered it is estimated that ONE-TENTH of all of China’s corporate debt is held by zombie firms.
I think they are- but they are doing it the wrong way (Everyone). Do not do this from tweets, or press conferences, or leaks.
This should be a very somber oval office speech. IT should be the president saying “in the months ahead, we have a very hard choice to make. Every generation has been called to make sacarfise for the greater good and here we are again. A economic collapse will have a very real human tool and will forever change America.
I continue to meet with medical and economic experts about the best way forward. We will spend the next 5 weeks focused on containing this virus as best as we can. From there -If we all do it together, we suspect we will be in a better place to treat this virus and prepare if it returns. We will build hospitals, increase production on medical supplies, do what ever it takes. At the end of the 5 weeks, we will move to mitigation. This will involved protecting the most at risk citizens and identifying those that are sick. We will slowly get back to work and continue to work towards a vaccine. We are all in this together and together - we will rise to the challenge to protect all our citizens and our country. I will work with memebers of both parties and state and local government to determine the best way to move to mitigation and will share a unified plan in the weeks ahead”.
Something like that. Give me THAT speech and you will have lots that agree to this!
Hammering the ■■■■ out of the hourly working man.
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Is that what you’d hear if he said it?
YEs. If he said it. I think Mike Pence (Who i dont agree with politically and would never vote for) has done a GREAT job at the pressers. He answers honestly, straight forward, sounds encouraging, defers to experts.
Would you agree that Mike Pence and Trump have VERY different styles during the pressers?
