As Biden says, we are interested in the truth, not facts.
Oh wait…maybe correlation isn’t enough to establish cause and effect by itself.
The data show a possible correlation. They do not show what has cause d what. It is largely nonsense.
You have picked two variables out of what needs to be a multi variable analysis. Likely the party of the President is the weakest relationship, if any exists at all.
Here’s another interpretation of what this stuff shows:
I’m not selling whatever he’s saying…just you can read into it different things.
If you want.
Congress has a far greater impact on the economy. We place far too much importance on the office of President.
The data shows what the viewer wants it to show.
Its math… guys.
Just consider the Obama/Trump comparison on which Trump comes off as having achieved less impact. The data show % change. Obama started from a much lower base – inheriting the financial mess that W and the Republican Congress created in 2007-2008.
If you buy a stock at $10 and it goes up to $20, you have a 100% gain. If the stock goes from $20 to $30, an identical $10% increase producers only a 50% gain. So using percentage gain, when Trump was following after the excellent stock market performance during the Obama years clearly puts Trump at a disadvantage.
So let’s look at actual gains. Its hard to get S&P numbers of inauguration day, But January 1 #'s are easy. So here at the S&P results:
Obama 1st Term: + 614.81
Obama 2nd Term +1660.31
Trump to date. +571.99
Conclusion – Trump supporters should be a bit more humble when they talk about how much the Trump economy had contributed compared to Obama.
The data shows what the viewer wants it to show.
As demonstrated on Friday when tweets from the Squad caused the markets to meltdown. Right. No wait… weren’t those tweets from the President.
And of course, the President has been so gracious in thanking Nancy Pelosi’s leadership of the House every time he talks about how well the economy is doing.
When voters go to the polls in 2020 to vote for President, the state of the economy and their optimism about economic direction will be a major influence on their votes. Senate and Congressional votes are much more influenced by specific issues. Concerns about healthcare helped swing the. House to the Republicans in 2010… concerns about Healthcare helped swing the House back to the Democrats in 2018.
I remember when Newt Gingrich proclaimed the Speaker of the House was more important than the President. No one believed him then
No it doesn’t.
Sure it will have a major impact, most people aren’t smart and like I said, overvalue the office.
The economy didn’t react to the tweet, Wall Street did.
He could tweet today and make it go up 1,500. That’s not the economy.
You saying Pelosi can’t do it?
No, but Nancy Pelosi is too intelligent and mature to engage in such nonsense.
So much for the cause and effect arguments. Its all effect and no cause!
Amazing.
Wall Street operates on emotion.
There’s a story – probably apocryphal about the great philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein. He once asked him graduate students, “How is it possible that for thousands of years all of the greatest minds in Europe agreed that the sun rotated around the earth when in fact it is the earth that rotates around the sun?”
One student responded, “That’s because it looked as if the sun rotated around the earth,” to which Wittgenstein replied, “But how would it have looked if the earth rotated around the sun?”
The data describe what is there; how we chose to interpret the data is essential.
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Some of the time. But Wall Street also operates on analysis, on herd behavior and on the corrupt use of inside information. Its the multivariate nature of how it operates that makes it unpredictable.
Interesting stuff, thanks OP.
Bull ■■■■■ but ok. What did it operate on on Friday?
It priced in the future discount of the negative effects from an escalated trade war.
Fear of what Donald Trump was up too primarily. The pattern with Trump is that he talks tough – which pleases he is followers – but never follows through – which pleases Wall Street. At this point, there is a wide recognition that Xi holds the upper hand in the trade war and Trump is clueless on how to move the situation forward. This raises the likelihood of a recession… and has little to do with Congress by the way.
