That’s pretty much a perfect timeline for me.
1 Like
Given the demographic, it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
1 Like
Op-Ed in WSJ 2005 boldly dismissed the notion of a housing bubble
(one that was predicted by Robert Shiller among others.)
.
.
The reality is this: There is no housing bubble in this country. Our strong housing market is a function of myriad factors with real economic underpinnings: low interest rates, local job growth, the emotional attachment one has for one’s home, one’s view of one’s future earning- power, and parental contributions, all have done their part to contribute to rising home prices. Over the past quarter-century, there has been an explosion of second-home purchases, a continued influx of immigrants, and a significant reduction in existing housing inventory through tear-downs. Not all of these trends are accurately reflected in the unending stream of data published daily. Home prices on average have risen at a 6% annual pace since 1999, and 13% over the past year.
What we do have is a serious housing shortage and housing affordability crisis. Despite robust construction, unsold inventory stands at four months, well below its 25-year average.
As I think about this while I do not agree forcing individuals to take on a higher interest rate I would be open to a voluntary additional payment to help others get into home ownership. $40 a month would not break the bank for me and would be nice to see my money directly helping others.
But the reality is that financial institutions would use this money to help themselves and politicians so after everyone has wet their beak nothing would be left to help those it is intended for.
You realize you can donate all of the money you like to charities of your choosing without the government forcing you to, right?
4 Likes
I know that. where did I say i was in favor of being forced to? I said an optional payment would be interesting to see.
I have a healthy cynicism for charities and religious orgs who rake in millions in donations, as well as those charities that spend millions on advertising.
As well you should.
My wife and I were on the boards of several nonprofits and eventually founded one of our own.
Our experience:
It’s not that nonprofits are full of fraud <–That is not the case.
But overhead, (commercial real estate expenses staff expenses etc.) build up VERY HIGH, VERY FAST once they have an office and a full-time staff.
Money given to a local charity with little/no office and an all-volunteer staff (local boy scouts, local football team etc,) goes a long long way. Money given to Sierra Club or ACLU or whatever is mostly devoured by overhead.
1 Like
Isn’t living in this new Brandon dicktatorship great?
I see what you did there with the letter K. How original.
This is my argument to Libs, you are free to pay more to the government if you like, you are free to donate to any group that supports the things you want. Just like I am.
I try not to put much of my money into the government and spend my money where I think it does the most work for the things I believe in. I donate and volunteer for a pregnancy center that helps women who decided against abortion. It helps them during their pregnancies, as well as after their babies are born. Some give their babies up but, some take parenting classes, get job skills, learn financial planning, etc.
I also give my time and money to my church. We help feed the hungry in our area, we provide clothing and basic needs to our community. I also donate money to a group that my sister volunteers for in her town. They have a bus that has showers and has washers and dryers. They cater to the homeless population. They provider showers and launder their belongings. They also provide haircuts and clothing.
My family donates school supplies to our neighborhood kids.
I am new volunteer for MADD, so I’m not sure what exactly I will be doing for that cause, but I can say that I will do whatever I am able to do to affect change in sentencing drunk drivers.
These are some of the tings that I am willing to put up my money and time for.
I expect the same from you when you have causes that you believe in. Do it expect the government to do everything and force Everyone to pay for it with taxes. Do it with your own money.
Leave the government to take care of interstate travel, military, foreign affairs, leave the rest to local municipalities and its citizens.
2 Likes
I got this idea from an AZ real estate group
- Choose a date I chose the height of the previous bubble.
- Set Case-Shiller Home prices on that date = 100 (couldn’t chose 50)
- Set average 30-year mortgages on that date = 100 (ditto)
- Graph results
Good thing I no longer have a mortgage.
3 Likes
In case it matters
(and I am not sure it does, but I am awake a playing with charts and numbers.)
The source of today’s housing problem is most directly attributable to the time-period shaded in the pinkish box below. As the graph shows, that is the period, beginning slightly before the COVID recession when the Fed began purchasing an unusually-large amount of mortgage bonds (MBS).
- Imagine the Fed set a deliberate policy to provide loans-to-buy-gasoline at an artificially cheap rate. . . . and then felt it had to pull the rug.
- Imagine the Fed set a deliberate policy to provide loans-to-buy-Netflix-subscriptions at an artificially cheap rate. . . . and then felt it had to pull the rug.
Whatever that effect would be, the Fed did that regarding loans-to-buy-houses during the period highlighted below.
The Fed should never-ever-ever choose one type/use of credit and try to make it cheaper relative too other types/uses of credit. But that is what it did.
.
.
.
I hope you’re single, handsome and available? Some good woman can enjoy spending your money…LOL.
But seriously…I wish credit score was somehow applyed to the voters.
Much more serious consequences would be prevented than being a deadbeat.
1 Like
It’s the federal govt putting on a property tax. And lending to people with bad credit got us the 2008 crash. Seems they can’t learn…
2 Likes
The federal government has more stupidity to draw from than it has money. And it can print money.
Bingo!
Be careful not go too far out on a limb there.
If you have heard home prices are rising, that’s right, sort of.
If you have heard home prices are falling. that’s right, sort of.
The median home price (upper 51%) is rising.
The average home price is falling, and, except for FEb has fallen consistently since last June.
You’re a math guy, so you understand the only time that happens is when the lower 49.9% falls more than the upper half.
They have overbuilt apartments in my area.
A bubble happens because people continue an economic activity well after the justification for it has already passed.
