Senate count prediction after election?

I don’t know of course but I am leaning on 53-47 win for the GOP in the senate. I think republicans take back Georgia and win New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. I think Kelly will win in Arizona as the late republican surge probably wasn’t enough to cover the margin.

What do you all have it after Tuesday.

I say they pick up Arizona and Colorado. Slight chance of Washington, but not likely. 55-45.

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gop 55 seats

house, 246 gop


We’ll find out Thursday.

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Given that the Republicans have a significant surge as they are closing out the campaign.

Arizona: Probably 50/50 that Lake can drag Masters across the finish line with her.

Pennsylvania: In the battle of giant turds, Oz has actually pulled ahead and has higher odds. Fetterman should have pulled out of this race, but the overweening ego that ALL politicians have blinded him to this fact.

Colorado: O’Dea has done well in the closing days, but given the overall makeup of the State, Bennet will likely narrowly win this.

Georgia: Walker will likely pull this off and that woman that came forward with the abortion story might have helped. People might have dismissed it as a fake stunt, particularly given the very suspicious timing right before the election.

Nevada: Laxalt is surging at the perfect time. Laxalt for the win here.

New Hampshire: Molduc got very close, but has run out of steam at the end. Hassan will narrowly win this.

Ohio: Vance has put this one away.

Washington: Murray wins this by about 2 points.

Wisconsin: Johnson by about 2 or 3 points.

So holding Arizona as a true tossup.

Republicans gain Georgia and Nevada.

52 Republicans
47 Democrats
Arizona to be determined.

Now IF (and that is a big IF) there is a Republican wave the polls have not picked up, that would push Masters across the finish line and, perhaps, give Republicans Colorado and New Hampshire.

55 Republicans
45 Democrats

But I would not hold my breath on that.

As for the House.

Republicans START from 219 seats, one more than a majority.

They will likely take the large majority of the Democrat held tossup seats, currently 17. Probably will pick off about 5 of the 25 Lean Democrat seats.

219+(13 of 17)+5=237 seats.

Even if they have a total lackluster night, they will still have a comfortable House majority.


Give you credit Saf.

That is a well reasoned take and pick.

Senate at 52 R or 53 is a wave and will help us get energy policy back to a better place.

i’ll give you that AZ seems close. I think Masters takes it.

Buldoc has not run out of steam, in fact, he just went ahead in the polls… your tds is showing. sununu will help bring him over the line.

so, GA, NV, NH, AZ flip gop. plus either CO or WA. I believe WA. After the last two years on the left coast, who in their right mind would vote for more of the same? I think Smiley is the right candidate at the right place and in the right time. I don’t think CO flips, its more of a playground than a state and the people there just aren’t serious.

in the house. i don’t see how the gop comes in under 240. RCP has them at 228 with 33 toss-ups. 245 basically gives the gop all of the districts that brandon won with less than 53% or trump got 47%. With gop +3 they do that (typically the gop wins seats when dems are plus 1 or 2). getting more than 245 would be evidence not of a red wave, but a blue eradicating tsunami.

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That’s a bet worth putting money on.

I hate to put a number on it, I will say this if pollsters are wrong again and this isn’t a close election they pretty much can’t be looked at it with any reliability from there on.

AZ Mark Kelly
CO Bennet
GA Walker
NH Hassan
NV Laxalt
OH J. D. Vance
PA Mehmet Oz
WA Murray
WI Johnson

54 R Senators

so 52 for you.

I’m gonna say 52 but hoping for 54. :wink:

I’m going to go w/ a more conservative predictions than others here - 51/49 GOP

House - 230 - 205

Will the Border Czar be able to go to the border if she doesn’t have to be the tie-breaker?

i’m afraid she’ll be to busy researching root causes to actually look at the problem

This is it in a nutshell. If history holds true regarding past midterm election trends then Republicans should have a very good night. Couple that with inflation, the open border mess, concerns over crime, etc., it’s not the utopia we were all promised. Couple that with most of the country not being big fans of Joe Biden either.

There’s one thing I do find a bit odd about the polling is how so many races are within the margin of error, whether they are in strong red or strong blue districts. It seems like every poll I hear is within 1 to 5 points. You would think that in a true wave election that more Republicans would have comfortable leads in solid red districts/states?

Well if the Republicans do say pick up 54-55 seats in the Senate but are all close races then the polling would be accurate. Now if the Republicans do win that many seats or more and the average margin of victory is 7 to 10 points, it could be fair to conclude that polling today is pretty useless.

I don’t know if it holds true nationwide, but in many states real clear politics believes polling is underestimating Republican strength by about 3%.

I believe that is quite likely. I also believe that because they’re doing less pulling this year, they’re going to miss out on late swings.

I’m guessing 235 to 240 Republicans in the house, and 53 to 55 Republicans in the Senate.

And I think Zeldin is going to beat Hochul in New York.

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