Samm
437
Particularly for people such as me who were raised to be self sufficient and not go running off to the doctor for every little thing that ails us. Personally, I have never gone to the doctor for the flu or a flu-like illness. But in my defense I rarely get sick. The last time I had some malady (un diagnosed) that gave me a fever was in the mid 90s.
Samm
438
Thatās highly unlikely.
Given the FDA approval process a vaccine may be available in the US in another five or ten years.
I expect that China will launch a vaccination program long before a vaccine gains approval here.
If Iām guiding or teaching I just canāt risk having my faculties not at or near peak. Just too many bad things can happen when guns are involved.
I too was raised just to tough it out. In 45 years I only saw my dad take a total of four days off for illness and his dad only took 3 days off in his working life, all for cancer surgeries.
Itās a different world now particularly if you work with the public.
No, they have expedited approval for vaccines now when thereās a real possibility of a major outbreak.
We have a new flu vaccine pretty much every year because it mutates so quickly and they only have 3-5 months to figure out which is likely to be the primary variant threat in any given year.
SixFoot
443
Nah, most of you still think a fraction with a 0 in the denominator is where you stop. 
i actually like approaching infinity
SixFoot
445
Why just approach it though?
I got the swine flu shot back in the 1970s. The government rushed it through approval because they were worried about a repeat of the Spanish flu epidemic. Ultimately there was no epidemic and the vaccine caused more problems than it prevented:
The real victims of this pandemic were likely the 450-odd people who came down with Guillain-Barre syndrome, a rare neurological disorder, after getting the 1976 flu shot. On its website, the CDC notes that people who got the vaccination did have an increased risk of āapproximately one additional case of GBS for every 100,000 people who got the swine flu vaccine.ā
We could see a repeat with a rushed vaccine for the new coronavirus.
That was really fast. Trials?
Very true. Influenza is quite different from flu-like illnesses with flu-like symptoms (the ācommon coldā). Differentiating influenza from a common cold is not straightforward, especially in the early stages of illness. Sudden onset of symptoms and fever help push the diagnosis towards influenza, but thereās a lot of variability.
Adults get 4-6 colds per year. Those colds vary in severity and duration of symptoms. Each year, maybe 1 in 10 get influenza. Influenza has more severe symptoms which last 2 weeks or more.
Bottom line is people get lets of colds which can be hard to distinguish initially from influenza. You give someone with the cold Tamiflu and it appears that they have less severe symptoms and get better faster than someone with influenza. Thatās because someone with a cold will virtually always have less severe symptoms which get better faster than someone with influenza. People mistake a cold for influenza and believe Tamiflu made them better.
I think this is where most of the confusion as to the efficacy of Tamiflu comes from. People incorrectly believe they have influenza, are given Tamiflu and then think they got better more quickly, when they never had influenza to begin with.
The basis of their information appears OK. That being said, there is a bit of sensationalism from the author (Lauren Gardner). They give a link to the Lancet article from which their information is derived. That Lancet article is probably a bit dry, but that is where I would get my information. The āreal-timeā map is another way of displaying information, but you have to be careful. Anytime information is displayed graphically (rather than simple numbers) it can introduce bias and subjectivity.
Animal trials have begun. They have no real impact on the timeline to human vaccines, however.
First phase 1 trial for a human vaccine is scheduled to begin in April. In the best case scenario, assuming the vaccine gets fast track or accelerated approval status, and the vaccine is extremely effective with little to no side effects/complications, it may become available to high risk individuals by the fall. More than likely this will be a 1-2 year process though. Unfortunately a vaccine will be of little benefit in either of those time frames.
Olmehk
451
Former Forbes Magazine Asia/Pacific Bureau Chief says that SARS is a manmade disease that specifically targets Asians.
Has anyone heard something like this?
So does the FDA regulate Tamiflu and other anti viral to be used only in conjunction with a positive flu test, or do doctors just give it willy nilly as was described earlier?
Saw a scare map this morning that showed in all red countries that had Corona Virus. It looked so scary that the US and Canada were completely red shaded. When there is only like 35 cases the last I read. That sends the under-educated voter over the edge does it not?
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Now if it targeted rangas only that would indeed be scary!!!
Axxowiz
456
They didnāt do a good job making a virus to attack Asians if the vast majority live after getting it, so no I donāt personally buy it. Ebola on the other hand while I am not in anyway suggesting it was man made is very lethal that ā ā ā ā kills close to 40%-50% or so.
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