SARS-like virus spreading rapidly in China; cities quarantined; cases in US

WildRose · 2020-02-20T20:32:58.071Z

The death rate is concerning but from an economic and infrastructure standpoint the greater problem is the rate of infection and length of time patients are debilitated.

Cynic · 2020-02-20T20:34:53.646Z

This is true and why it has gone from being a mild concern to me, to a very big one. This illness at a minimum is hard to contain and puts a huge strain on resources.

WildRose · 2020-02-20T20:35:49.347Z

Refer back to my early posts in the thread.

SottoVoce · 2020-02-20T20:54:30.006Z

WildRose:

The death rate is concerning but from an economic and infrastructure standpoint the greater problem is the rate of infection and length of time patients are debilitated.

Why? Mortality rate and r0 are both less than SARS. Mortality rate will likely be less than 1% when all things are said and done. Typically people begin recovery by day 11 after onset of symptoms. Seasonal influenza is 14 days.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316?

How the New Coronavirus Spreads and Progresses – And Why One Test May Not Be...

UCSF infectious disease expert Charles Chiu, MD, PhD, has been following the disease since its outbreak and provided the latest updates on what science has revealed about how the coronavirus is transmitted, what happens to someone who’s infected, and...

The new coronavirus isn’t believed to be an airborne virus, like measles or smallpox, that can circulate through the air. “If you have an infected person in the front of the plane, for instance, and you’re in the back of the plane, your risk is close to zero simply because the area of exposure is thought to be roughly six feet from the infected person,” said Chiu.

“I believe that the actual calculated death rates will go down over time, perhaps to less than 1 percent” said Chiu.

After day 11, most patients who survive are on their way to recovery.

WildRose · 2020-02-20T21:02:37.630Z

You’re wrong. This virus has already killed more people than SARS have now exceeded those of SARS as was reported a week or more ago.

Business Insider

The new coronavirus has killed nearly 3 times as many people in 8 weeks as...

SARS killed 774 people between November 2002 and July 2003. More than 2,100 people have died from the new Wuhan coronavirus since December.

The smart money right now says we’ll see a global slowdown if not retraction starting probably in the 3rd quarter as a result of this virus and it’s impact on global manufacturing.

The impact of the Wuhan CV is already greater than that of ether SARS or MERS.

SottoVoce · 2020-02-21T02:07:12.518Z

WildRose:

You’re wrong. This virus has already killed more people than SARS have now exceeded those of SARS as was reported a week or more ago.

COVID-19 Coronavirus Compared to SARS Outbreak: Cases, Deaths, Spread

The smart money right now says we’ll see a global slowdown if not retraction starting probably in the 3rd quarter as a result of this virus and it’s impact on global manufacturing.

The impact of the Wuhan CV is already greater than that of ether SARS or MERS.

Hmmm…mortality vs mortality rate. Read again.

So now total numbers matter? Again, might want to check seasonal flu if that’s the only statistic of importance.

WildRose · 2020-02-21T04:30:12.559Z

We can treat the flu and stop it dead in it’s tracks now with several prescription med’s as long as the patient properly identifies the symptoms and gets to a doc.

We’re barely 3 months into the first outbreak of this CV and have no idea yet what the actual rates are going to look like because China is not providing reliable numbers and there is no similar treatment for it.

SottoVoce · 2020-02-21T05:19:06.775Z

WildRose:

We can treat the flu and stop it dead in it’s tracks now with several prescription med’s as long as the patient properly identifies the symptoms and gets to a doc.

We’re barely 3 months into the first outbreak of this CV and have no idea yet what the actual rates are going to look like because China is not providing reliable numbers and there is no similar treatment for it.

You’re misinformed if you think we have a medicine which can stop flu “dead in it’s tracks.” That is complete and total BS. It’s dangerous to think we have some magic medication to stop the flu.

This season alone, over 14,000 Americans have died of the flu. That’s 7 times the amount who have died of the coronavirus. Would you like to tell their families there was a magic drug that could have saved them?

WildRose · 2020-02-21T05:21:33.026Z

It’s not “magic”.

WebMD

Flu Treatment

WebMD explains how to treat flu symptoms - including what to take and what to avoid.

If you get in early they are as much as 90% effective and you will be over it within four days.

Those dying of the flu in the US are those who are already extremely sick and usually immune compromised before they ever get treatment.

SottoVoce · 2020-02-21T05:55:22.537Z

WildRose:

It’s not “magic”.

Flu Treatments and Medications for Influenza (Seasonal Flu) Symptoms

If you get in early they are as much as 90% effective and you will be over it within four days.

Those dying of the flu in the US are those who are already extremely sick and usually immune compromised before they ever get treatment.

LOL. WebMD. You’re an expert now! Maybe read a Cochrane review? A meta-analysis or two? Nah, why bother. (In their defense, your made up “90% effective and over it within 4 days” is nowhere to be seen on WebMD.)

Don’t worry, you’re not alone. I have plenty of patients who use websites, talk radio and social media to become “experts.” The sad thing is, science doesn’t give a pass to the misinformed. They get sick just like everyone else. I take that back, they end up a whole lot sicker. To each their own.

I just wish they’d keep it to themselves. If you want to get sick or killed through your own devices, more power to you. Spreading bad information that could get someone else sick or killed because they believe you? Different story.

WildRose · 2020-02-21T05:55:59.972Z

Patients? Are you now claiming to be a doctor?

I’m not spreading anything but well understood fact here.

SottoVoce · 2020-02-21T05:57:32.068Z

WildRose:

Patients? Are you now claiming to be a doctor?

I’m not claiming. I am a doctor. The whole medical school and MD behind my name. It’s not anything that hasn’t been discussed on here before.

WildRose · 2020-02-21T05:58:57.274Z

Then you know better.

When used for treatment, antiviral drugs can lessen symptoms and shorten the time you are sick by 1 or 2 days. They also can prevent serious flu complications, like pneumonia. For people at high risk of serious flu complications, treatment with antiviral drugs can mean the difference between milder or more serious illness possibly resulting in a hospital stay. CDC recommends prompt treatment for people who have influenza infection or suspected influenza infection and who are at high risk of serious flu complications.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – 2 May 23

Flu Treatment

If you get sick with flu, antiviral drugs may be a treatment option.

SottoVoce · 2020-02-21T06:12:11.589Z

Cochrane review. 2014. The gold standard in the medical field. What did it show? No decrease in hospitalizations, complications or mortality. Additional meta-analyses since then show that complications are more likely than disease reduction in those most severely affected.

One single non-review study showed that in otherwise healthy individuals, taking an antiviral within 1-2 days of symptoms may reduce symptoms by one day. That’s it. That’s the magic. Reducing 2 weeks of symptoms by a day in people who are the most likely to do fine on their own.

Look at the overall mortality from the flu since 2000. It’s decreased by 3.8%. No magic there. 20 years and no drugs to stop flu in it’s tracks. The only reason we’ve gotten that meager reduction is because vaccination rates have gone from less than 20% to around 45%.

I don’t expect to change your mind. Just hoping others won’t hurt themselves by believing what you’ve said. You can think anything you want.

Samm · 2020-02-21T08:07:22.221Z

WildRose:

You’re wrong. This virus has already killed more people than SARS have now exceeded those of SARS as was reported a week or more ago.

COVID-19 Coronavirus Compared to SARS Outbreak: Cases, Deaths, Spread

The smart money right now says we’ll see a global slowdown if not retraction starting probably in the 3rd quarter as a result of this virus and it’s impact on global manufacturing.

The impact of the Wuhan CV is already greater than that of ether SARS or MERS.

That just means it is more virulent, not that it’s more deadly. In terms of total eventual deaths that is of great concern, but it’s certainly no Ebola. However, you are right, because China is a major player in the world market, the intensity of the containment effort is having a global impact on the global economy. Until the spread of the disease is contained to where new cases are few, we are all in for a bumpy ride.

Samm · 2020-02-21T08:16:08.627Z

WildRose:

We can treat the flu and stop it dead in it’s tracks now with several prescription med’s as long as the patient properly identifies the symptoms and gets to a doc.

We’re barely 3 months into the first outbreak of this CV and have no idea yet what the actual rates are going to look like because China is not providing reliable numbers and there is no similar treatment for it.

Yet this year the CDC estimates there have been 14-36,000 deaths in the US from the seasonal flu since October 1 through February 8th.

Samm · 2020-02-21T08:19:50.489Z

SottoVoce:

WildRose:

We can treat the flu and stop it dead in it’s tracks now with several prescription med’s as long as the patient properly identifies the symptoms and gets to a doc.

We’re barely 3 months into the first outbreak of this CV and have no idea yet what the actual rates are going to look like because China is not providing reliable numbers and there is no similar treatment for it.

You’re misinformed if you think we have a medicine which can stop flu “dead in it’s tracks.” That is complete and total BS. It’s dangerous to think we have some magic medication to stop the flu.

This season alone, over 14,000 Americans have died of the flu. That’s 7 times the amount who have died of the coronavirus. Would you like to tell their families there was a magic drug that could have saved them?

14,000 is the conservative estimate. The number could be 36,000 according to the CDC.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – 26 May 23

Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates

CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.

Paul_Thomson · 2020-02-21T09:37:41.380Z

GreatGameIndia – 5 Feb 20

TRANSCRIPT: Bioweapons Expert Dr. Francis Boyle On Coronavirus - GreatGameIndia

Transcript of the interview with Bioweapons expert Dr. Francis Boyle on the origins of 2019 Wuhan Coronavirus Biological Warfare Weapon.

Est. reading time: 30 minutes

The interviewee is credible, and references scientific papers. It appears that during the Obama administration a US lab engineered the virus as a bio weapon and sold it to China who used technology bought from Australia to make it more deadly still, but suffered a leak of the virus from its Wuhan BSL4 lab several hundred metres from the Wuhan meat market.

And the following link is a more recent interview with updated research info.

https://banned.video/watch?id=5e4d9a96ceaa970024aa6fbf

Plasmaball · 2020-02-21T10:15:43.379Z

The black death wiped out half the known population…

800 is nothing.

Plasmaball · 2020-02-21T10:18:36.807Z

Sure they are…its bigger than sars…we need to ban travel…panic…