Bottom line, what Russia did is a direct and definitive act of war; how we react to it is up to us. I will withhold judgement until I see the entire scope of our reaction. IMHO we should:
Openly admit it was an act of war, but downplay the severity and increase surveilance in the black sea. announce no other measure “in connection” to it. Neither confirm nor deny any other decision is connected to it in anyway.
Quietly provide aid to Ukraine in the form of the DPICM artillery ammunition we have so far withheld that they requested.
Announce “NATO preparedness” measures including the replacement of any aircraft on reasonable terms to NATO partners who provide Ukraine with soviet era jets.
Quietly let allies know that if they have older NATO jets they wish to replace we will be open to working out favorable terms taking into account the value of the older jets.
Quietly allow Ukraine ATACMS and older decommissioning cruise missiles.
Announce our reaffirmation that the right of self defense for any country includes the right to destroy military targets and staging points used to attack them no matter where they are (This is already international law).
Quietly provide Ukraine with more timely intelligence as to the location of Russian commanders in the field (you know we know where they are). We were doing this, we seem to have stopped because we got nervous about dead Russian Generals.
The cost should be high, but it should not be some loud chest thumping brandonite theater.
It is simply not logical to accept things which are provably false. Ukraine applying to NATO for membership was not then and is not now a threat to Russia. There are many reasons for this including the fact that Ukraine could not have been granted accession due to its territorial dispute with Russia. Not to mention the fact that Ukraine was never going to get unanimous approval. NATO did not and never would attack Russia, and nothing NATO does is a threat to them so long as they do not attack NATO. Russian paranoia is not a consideration and should never be a factor is any decision we make.
It is simply irrational to believe that if Russia was allowed to succeed in its nuclear blackmail they wouldn’t do it again. If it worked, of course they would. They already use the same rhetoric and positions regarding the Baltics they used describing Ukraine before. If you want to stop WW3, the time to do it is now, and the way to do it is to ensure the Russian aggression fails.
