If rumors are true, he may die of cancer fairly soon. Or perhaps a coup will end his life. Maybe he’ll be fine and hold onto power for a few more years.
But the question is what will happen to Russia after Putin goes and as the Ukraine debacle continues to cause grave problems for Russia?
Will power be handed over easily to another hardliner in the Kremlin and will business continue as usual? Or are we starting to see the breakdown of the Russian State in full?
Kremlin power struggles for who takes over from Putin, battles between powerful oligarchs, insurrections, civil war, breakaway ethnic regions, fights over who controls the oil and nuclear weapons, economic collapse. These are all possibilities.
Its hard to imagine a rosy future after Putin- and much more likely to imagine a dire and dangerous future for Russia and its people. and that will have implications for the whole world.
Yugoslavia’s Marshall Tito was rational, but when he was gone, it fell apart soon after. With a leader like Putin, or Tito, there is no real heir apparent to hold the system together. The Far East and Caucus regions are not ethnic Russian and will spin off in short order when he is gone. And after this fight with Ukraine, win or lose, the ethnic Russian people will have no stomach to even try to stop them.
Russia has always been ruled by an autocracy. Its hard to imagine them “evolving”. Sadly I envision separatist ethnic regions and a revolving gang of Kremlin insiders desperately trying to put down rebellions. Really it would be like a continuation of the Soviet empire falling apart. All I hope for is sane leadership that knows how to handle those nukes.
Yeah I assume Parkinsons. And it looks fairly advanced. And there have been lots of cancer docs hanging around and rumors of that so I wouldnt be surprised. The real fear is that he is dying and has nothing to lose so why not shoot off a few nukes or a few hundred because… Russia! L’etat c’est moi!