Reference point in weather death tolls: An average US winter kills ~120,000 people

biggestal99 · 2018-09-17T14:34:00.509Z

GWH:

The blame has been laid directly at Trump’s feet.

By who CNN (AT&T) “fake news”

who is denying 3K died because of the Hurricane?

That is what he is taking flak over.

Death denier.

as far as FEMA response, i could have been better.

but what FEMA thing goes perfectly right. Even under Obama there were missteps.

Allan

SottoVoce · 2018-09-17T14:41:00.015Z

calirepub:

Sknyluv:

He could have shown compassion for the loss of life in PR

They wouldn’t have died if they didn’t choose to live in that ■■■■ hole. Democrats made their bed in PR, and now they’re paying for it.

Sknyluv:

pledge continued support to the rebuilding of their island.

Why would he want to help them rebuild the island? They didn’t vote for him. There’s literally zero political capital that he could gain by investing resources into PR. We should probably remove their status as an Unincorporated territory of the US and let them become their own country, before more of those libs move to Florida and Texas and vote in those elections.

There you go. If Puerto Rico can’t help you politically, why help them? All those dead people wouldn’t have voted in your favor, so let them die. In fact, push the blame onto the deceased and the democrats.

Compassion and accountability for miles.

Sknyluv · 2018-09-17T14:45:52.367Z

SottoVoce:

Compassion and accountability for miles.

I hoping that was sarcasm.

GWH · 2018-09-17T14:54:22.657Z

Calirepub is a satirical poster.

SottoVoce · 2018-09-17T15:02:05.478Z

GWH:

Calirepub is a satirical poster.

I thought so. Couldn’t remember for sure and I fell for it.

Snow96 · 2018-09-17T15:16:36.013Z

No. Puerto Rico should have actual numbers.

Here are the number of people we know have died since the hurricane.
Here are the number of those people that died related to the hurricane.
Here are the number of people still missing/unaccounted for.

Instead the government of Puerto Rico has taken the easy way out and made the death toll what the estimate is.

GWH · 2018-09-17T15:35:45.034Z

It’s my contention that the numbers are way off and pulled from a George Washington university study based on “likely hood”. IF that number is somehow correct, the attribution should be to several factors from corruption or pure ineptitude displayed by the PR government and officials within PREPA. The simplification of hurricane deaths is misleading in effort to pump air into a political football.

biggestal99 · 2018-09-17T16:19:41.575Z

Snow96:

Instead the government of Puerto Rico has taken the easy way out and made the death toll what the estimate is.

Consider for an instant the general ineptitude of the Puerto Rican Commonwealth Gov;t for a monment.

do you really want a death count from them?

Allan

DougBH · 2018-09-17T16:51:04.898Z

Sknyluv:

DougBH:

Instead of blasting the 3,000 death study, Trump should have hired professionals to do their own analysis. The main point being that even if you can attribute the deaths to the hurricane you cannot compare those 3,000 deaths to the deaths of Sandy and Katrina. You would have to do a comparable study of each of those on a similar basis. It may be that, using this method, Sandy killed 10,000.

This is what you think Trump should have done? Hired people to do another analysis? Cool.

Or. He could have shown compassion for the loss of life in PR, and pledge continued support to the rebuilding of their island. It’s really not that hard.

Or both.
Has aid to Puerto Rico stopped? Do we no longer want the truth?

Snow96 · 2018-09-17T16:52:48.285Z

Better than a “this is how many are typically killed” so we will go with that number.

Yes, I want the Puerto Rico government to give actual numbers. Lets see just how incompetent they are when the numers are not nearly the estimate.

SottoVoce · 2018-09-17T17:39:36.184Z

Snow96:

Better than a “this is how many are typically killed” so we will go with that number.

Yes, I want the Puerto Rico government to give actual numbers. Lets see just how incompetent they are when the numers are not nearly the estimate.

The study used numbers from the Puerto Rico Vital Statistics Registry. That’s as official as it gets in Puerto Rico.

Sknyluv · 2018-09-17T17:42:04.823Z

DougBH:

Or both.

Of course. But what did Trump decide to do?

DougBH · 2018-09-17T17:49:10.385Z

Sknyluv:

DougBH:

Or both.

Of course. But what did Trump decide to do?

Flub it and make a stupid tweet, of course.

Sknyluv · 2018-09-17T17:50:41.264Z

DougBH:

Flub it and make a stupid tweet, of course.

The man has never seen the high road.

Snow96 · 2018-09-17T18:03:54.089Z

Then the government has failed if they don’t have an accurate number of actual dead bodies and aan accurate number of missing/unaccounted for people and have to use an estimate.

SottoVoce · 2018-09-17T18:44:52.981Z

Snow96:

Then the government has failed if they don’t have an accurate number of actual dead bodies and aan accurate number of missing/unaccounted for people and have to use an estimate.

They do have the total number dead over that time period. The issue is deciding how many of those deaths are related to the storm. If a death certificate lists “renal failure” as the cause of death, but the reason they died was because the dialysis center didn’t have electricity, it doesn’t show up the same way as if someone died from falling debris directly attributable to the hurricane. They’re estimating the increased deaths over non-hurricane years which are attributable to the hurricane, not the total number of deaths.

Bill.in.PA · 2018-09-17T22:02:13.575Z

Good point. The problem with Sandy (which occurred in October) is that the normal seasonal variation in death rates is likely to mask any longer term effects on death rates. A difference with storms in Puerto Rico is that there is no winter weather, so even a small change in death rates is more likely to be noticeable.

I suspect that a January cold wave may result in more deaths than the claimed figures for Maria. Here is a link that shows that cold waves that last more than a day or two can significantly increase death rates:

PubMed Central (PMC)

Estimating and Projecting the Effect of Cold Waves on Mortality in 209 US Cities

The frequency, duration, and intensity of cold waves are expected to decrease in the near future under the changing climate. However, there is a lack of understanding on future mortality related to cold waves. The present study conducted a...

Bill.in.PA · 2018-09-17T22:08:40.793Z

Yep, a fracking ban would probably kill thousands of elderly on fixed incomes.

DougBH · 2018-09-17T22:09:21.214Z

Well, you could compare the month of hurricane Sandy and the following three months with a comparable time frame in several preceding years…until you get the percentage increase you are looking for.

Bill.in.PA · 2018-09-17T22:12:06.817Z

An issue is that November weather may have affected the death rates after Sandy, which makes it difficult to say what is happening.

Puerto Rico has virtually no seasonal change in temperatures. There is a wet and a dry season, but the seasonal effects are probably much less than those the northeast US.