Reference point in weather death tolls: An average US winter kills ~120,000 people

Cratic3947 · 2018-09-17T13:35:48.707Z

Bill.in.PA:

Yes, simply taking account the average monthly winter death rates compared to the minimum during the summer shows that US winters kill about 120,000 each year. Most of the extra deaths occur in the elderly or those with a severe chronic health problems. Winter weather can significantly increase the risk of death even if it is not the only factor.

Statistics shows that death rates have a significant seasonal component as shown in the graph below. Deaths go up in winter weather and reach a minimum in warm weather.

Seasonality of mortality: the September phenomenon in Mediterranean countries - PMC

For the US, the minimum death rate occurs in the August with a about 93% of the annual average. The peak occurs in February with about 111% of the average. About 2.7 million people die each year so the excess mortality during December, January, February and March compared to August works out to about 120,000 people.

If you say this figure sounds ridiculously high consider this report from the UK, which estimates that 48000 people died as result of winter weather last winter. The UK has about 1/6 of the US population, so the figure would correspond to about 300,000 deaths in the US. My guess is that the the greater seasonal effect in the UK may be a result of the lack of central heating in the UK compared to the US.

48,000 Brits dead after worst winter in 42 years - Daily Star

This type of analysis was recently used to estimate the number of deaths from recent hurricanes. My understanding is that most of the increase comes as a result of damage to electrical power and other infrastructure and most of the deaths are elderly or those with chronic health problems.

For example, consider an elderly person who has smoked for 50+ years and has a lung condition that requires oxygen. Is it fair to say that power failure from a storm caused the death?

What about decades smoking, old age, and lung disease? Aren’t they also contributing to the death as well?

How do you assign blame when there are logically multiple causes for a particular death?

Because energy is too expensive.

dantes · 2018-09-17T13:43:42.147Z

You really should have read the article.

Sknyluv · 2018-09-17T13:56:47.377Z

DougBH:

Instead of blasting the 3,000 death study, Trump should have hired professionals to do their own analysis. The main point being that even if you can attribute the deaths to the hurricane you cannot compare those 3,000 deaths to the deaths of Sandy and Katrina. You would have to do a comparable study of each of those on a similar basis. It may be that, using this method, Sandy killed 10,000.

This is what you think Trump should have done? Hired people to do another analysis? Cool.

Or. He could have shown compassion for the loss of life in PR, and pledge continued support to the rebuilding of their island. It’s really not that hard.

calirepub · 2018-09-17T14:03:37.859Z

Sknyluv:

He could have shown compassion for the loss of life in PR

They wouldn’t have died if they didn’t choose to live in that ■■■■ hole. Democrats made their bed in PR, and now they’re paying for it.

Sknyluv:

pledge continued support to the rebuilding of their island.

Why would he want to help them rebuild the island? They didn’t vote for him. There’s literally zero political capital that he could gain by investing resources into PR. We should probably remove their status as an Unincorporated territory of the US and let them become their own country, before more of those libs move to Florida and Texas and vote in those elections.

biggestal99 · 2018-09-17T14:34:00.509Z

GWH:

The blame has been laid directly at Trump’s feet.

By who CNN (AT&T) “fake news”

who is denying 3K died because of the Hurricane?

That is what he is taking flak over.

Death denier.

as far as FEMA response, i could have been better.

but what FEMA thing goes perfectly right. Even under Obama there were missteps.

Allan

SottoVoce · 2018-09-17T14:41:00.015Z

calirepub:

Sknyluv:

He could have shown compassion for the loss of life in PR

They wouldn’t have died if they didn’t choose to live in that ■■■■ hole. Democrats made their bed in PR, and now they’re paying for it.

Sknyluv:

pledge continued support to the rebuilding of their island.

Why would he want to help them rebuild the island? They didn’t vote for him. There’s literally zero political capital that he could gain by investing resources into PR. We should probably remove their status as an Unincorporated territory of the US and let them become their own country, before more of those libs move to Florida and Texas and vote in those elections.

There you go. If Puerto Rico can’t help you politically, why help them? All those dead people wouldn’t have voted in your favor, so let them die. In fact, push the blame onto the deceased and the democrats.

Compassion and accountability for miles.

Sknyluv · 2018-09-17T14:45:52.367Z

SottoVoce:

Compassion and accountability for miles.

I hoping that was sarcasm.

GWH · 2018-09-17T14:54:22.657Z

Calirepub is a satirical poster.

SottoVoce · 2018-09-17T15:02:05.478Z

GWH:

Calirepub is a satirical poster.

I thought so. Couldn’t remember for sure and I fell for it.

Snow96 · 2018-09-17T15:16:36.013Z

No. Puerto Rico should have actual numbers.

Here are the number of people we know have died since the hurricane.
Here are the number of those people that died related to the hurricane.
Here are the number of people still missing/unaccounted for.

Instead the government of Puerto Rico has taken the easy way out and made the death toll what the estimate is.

GWH · 2018-09-17T15:35:45.034Z

It’s my contention that the numbers are way off and pulled from a George Washington university study based on “likely hood”. IF that number is somehow correct, the attribution should be to several factors from corruption or pure ineptitude displayed by the PR government and officials within PREPA. The simplification of hurricane deaths is misleading in effort to pump air into a political football.

biggestal99 · 2018-09-17T16:19:41.575Z

Snow96:

Instead the government of Puerto Rico has taken the easy way out and made the death toll what the estimate is.

Consider for an instant the general ineptitude of the Puerto Rican Commonwealth Gov;t for a monment.

do you really want a death count from them?

Allan

DougBH · 2018-09-17T16:51:04.898Z

Sknyluv:

DougBH:

Instead of blasting the 3,000 death study, Trump should have hired professionals to do their own analysis. The main point being that even if you can attribute the deaths to the hurricane you cannot compare those 3,000 deaths to the deaths of Sandy and Katrina. You would have to do a comparable study of each of those on a similar basis. It may be that, using this method, Sandy killed 10,000.

This is what you think Trump should have done? Hired people to do another analysis? Cool.

Or. He could have shown compassion for the loss of life in PR, and pledge continued support to the rebuilding of their island. It’s really not that hard.

Or both.
Has aid to Puerto Rico stopped? Do we no longer want the truth?

Snow96 · 2018-09-17T16:52:48.285Z

Better than a “this is how many are typically killed” so we will go with that number.

Yes, I want the Puerto Rico government to give actual numbers. Lets see just how incompetent they are when the numers are not nearly the estimate.

SottoVoce · 2018-09-17T17:39:36.184Z

Snow96:

Better than a “this is how many are typically killed” so we will go with that number.

Yes, I want the Puerto Rico government to give actual numbers. Lets see just how incompetent they are when the numers are not nearly the estimate.

The study used numbers from the Puerto Rico Vital Statistics Registry. That’s as official as it gets in Puerto Rico.

Sknyluv · 2018-09-17T17:42:04.823Z

DougBH:

Or both.

Of course. But what did Trump decide to do?

DougBH · 2018-09-17T17:49:10.385Z

Sknyluv:

DougBH:

Or both.

Of course. But what did Trump decide to do?

Flub it and make a stupid tweet, of course.

Sknyluv · 2018-09-17T17:50:41.264Z

DougBH:

Flub it and make a stupid tweet, of course.

The man has never seen the high road.

Snow96 · 2018-09-17T18:03:54.089Z

Then the government has failed if they don’t have an accurate number of actual dead bodies and aan accurate number of missing/unaccounted for people and have to use an estimate.

SottoVoce · 2018-09-17T18:44:52.981Z

Snow96:

Then the government has failed if they don’t have an accurate number of actual dead bodies and aan accurate number of missing/unaccounted for people and have to use an estimate.

They do have the total number dead over that time period. The issue is deciding how many of those deaths are related to the storm. If a death certificate lists “renal failure” as the cause of death, but the reason they died was because the dialysis center didn’t have electricity, it doesn’t show up the same way as if someone died from falling debris directly attributable to the hurricane. They’re estimating the increased deaths over non-hurricane years which are attributable to the hurricane, not the total number of deaths.