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Well that’s a little harsh.

Still I think

  • we either have a recession coming or are in one already (depends on your method)
  • This recession has a completely unique labor market (hence the reason not everyone calls it a recession.)

I am beginning to think maybe the bifurcation between willingness to work in a warehouse vs willingness to work at a desk has maybe now become an economic problem.

(Echoes of my Archie Bunker type hard-working hard-drinking uncle who used to forecast doom for this nation because “Nobody wants to do back work any more. Most of your generation are all lazy” now echo in my head.)

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I put out a couple of threads regarding military recruiting and the assessments regarding today’s young adults was that nearly 80% are either obese, poorly educated, involved with drugs, have criminal backgrounds, or have various types of health issues. Myself along with others find that 80% number a bit suspect, nonetheless it absolutely is a troubling statistic.

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Agreed. But a harsh reality.

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Well I just mentioned obesity as a snide thing.
people can be skinny-lazy or to arrogant or spoiled for blue collar jobs too (fat is not a requirement to reject blue collar work.)

Besides, if “the yonger genration” is to blame I have always been quick to blame parents and schools.

Still,
I wonder if . . .
unemployed white collar workers
applied for and accepted blue collar jobs during economic hardship
(just as very generation has in the past) would the recession be cancelled?

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How’d they get that way?
The greatest generation didn’t raise carbon copies of themselves but they did not raise what you are describing.

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Good question. Life became too easy?

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In 1973 American league baseball adopted the designated hitter rule.
It’s all been downhill from there. (Guffaw.)

Anyway I am not sure “America has gotten fat and lazy or skinny and arrogant” is a legit part of economic inquiry, but the fact remains

  • the labor shortage is almost exclusively in blue collar jobs
  • unemployment is almost exclusively in white collar jobs.

It might be (simply) that we are “not that desperate yet.”

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New topic . . . housing.
This won’t end well. Buy this metric, the US housing market is in more trouble than during the housing bubble crisis.

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Is there is a cite for this proposition? Especially the almost exclusively part?

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You can start with this
image

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Half of the items listed are white collar jobs

State and local government is second……

Professional and business services are in the list as well.

I am not saying that blue collar jobs are not harder to fill. They are. However your own chart shows that it’s nowhere near “almost exclusive”. It’s a mixed bag with blue collars certainly ahead unfortunately.

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By the way that non durable manufacturing is number one that list is fascinating

“Bring back those jobs”

Ok they are here…

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I spent a big part of the COVID lock down taking classes and working in PT retail (convenience store)

The reason I mention it is because while I was there, Pepsi, which also owns and operates probably half the major chip brands had a SERIOUS labor shortage. (Probably still has a minor shortage.) Half our sodas and half our chips were empty. Think about a convenience store. Basically 25% were completely empty, It looked like the old Soviet Union.

Anyway, you highlighted “nondurable good” and I imediatey thought of my esperience in the Pepsi and Dorito shortage.

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334

I guess this was no surprise:

I guess the only question is, how ugly is it going to get?

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There are ZERO historical scenarios by which Powell-sized rate hikes have beaten the kind of big inflation we have now.

In the past we had things like OPEC, the Iran Revolution, Soviets cornering the wheat market, the war in Iraq etc… Now we have the war in Ukraine. I do not believe today’s situation is unprecedented.

I have absolutely no reason to believe a puny 4.6% Fed Funds Rate willm beat an 8.3% inflation rate. That type of policy has been tried many times. It failed every single time.

Likely scenario:
A modernized repeat of the 1970s.

image

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Here

It’s not going to work

image
image500×679 38.3 KB

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Spend some more Dims.
■■■■■■■ morons.
UNITY!
LOL
Suckers

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Below is a chart of the # of new homes sold in the US. Notice it DOUBLED in the beginning of 2020. That cannot be anything but a temporary bump.
People who just bought homes are not going to buy a 2nd one.

Regardless of what the Fed does, regardless of mortgage rates, demand is going to drop. That means price is going to drop

Regardless of what the Fed does today, tomorrow or next month, all the buyers are “used up” so home prices will drop. The problem is NOT what the Fed is going to do, the problem was caused by whichever entities (Congress, the Fed, whatever) that caused home sales to bump up.

Screenshot 2022-09-22 12.09.24 AM
Screenshot 2022-09-22 12.09.24 AM1278×572 62.7 KB

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The home sales bump was bumped by states shutting down…. It wasn’t a federal thing.

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Either way . . . home sales jumped in an unsustinable way.
Population simply did not increase that quickly.
People wealth did not increase so quickly that America suddenly had that many two 2-home families.

When apple sales double, people do not assume that for ever and ever people will consume twice as many apples as they used to. They assume properly) that it was a spike in apple sales and, whatever caused it, apple sales will recede…

It make sense to take the same approach to home sales suddenly doubling.