conan
301
I think remodeling business will remain strong, at some point it’s going to make sense doing upgrade then moving…unless you have the capital to buy outright.
If you have the cash on hand…this is the time they’re really going to get wealthy.
I think homes across the board fell about 20 percent? Just rough estimate off my head so don’t quote me on that.
tnt
302
Local lumber yard who still takes delivery by rail:
This is not the norm anymore, but they are right by the NE corridor lines. Tons of business in that area have their own spurs still.
When i was in the lumber business, one of our yards had a spur but it was long defunct. To far from the main lines, and the volume was too low to warrant it.
tnt
303
We have some personal reasons to be paying attention to real estate, and in our area, things are off maybe 10%…maybe a little more on the high end. Happened quick too…
Yeah, sometimes we catch it both ways. Economy screaming, sellers market…things are too expensive to step up to a bigger house, might as well improve. Thins slowing down, well, maybe we shouldn’t buy a new house right now…let’s improve.
And we’re fortunate to serve markets heavy with big pharma and wall street folks. They do fine no matter what…
conan
304
I see rails have already halted grain shipments.
edited to add. It’s also going to effect oil prices…Keystone pipeline would have been nice…wouldn’t it libs? 
conan
305
only good news is wholesale inflation has slowed to 8.7.
Look up Warren Buffet and the US Rail System
conan
307
That’s going to effect oil prices…release more of oil reserves.
Axxowiz
308
So basically we are seeing the beginning phase of another incoming 2007 economic disaster.
Gaius
309
I am not so good at predicting how deep a recession will be.
But compared to the “Great Financial Crisis”
this does not have the bundle after bundle of untrustworthy bond packages
and does not have the multiple layers of insurance on them,
so likely not as bad.
1 Like
Among 3863 other economic things this one doesn’t have. Though it’s entirely possible that there will be less stability than what we have seen after the 2008-2009 recession ended. Meandering gdp stuff like that.
I wonder if they take into consideration that a lot of municipalities stopped charging interest rates and stuff like that during the pandemic and people let them linger. But yeah that’s a scary number
Gaius
312
Yes. You are correct.
Every recession has a few unique features (this one has bitcoin, China, Russia) but in general the eonco textbooks read
“A excessive increase in money supply leads to boom then bust”
and this looks like exactly that times two, but otherwise not very different from a garden variety recession.
I love memes that try to be funny and then claim that the president has control over property taxes……… and then those who claim to know how the government should work post it for all to laugh
It really depends on how much the consumer can keep functioning and spending under these high inflationary numbers. Thus far my family has not significantly changed our lifestyle that much. The main difference though is that we are spending much more to continue to maintain our lifestyle, and also not saving as much. I would assume most other families have not been as fortunate and cutting back in different areas. Nonetheless as long as the jobs picture remains decent people will still be able to spend and inflation will likely keep lingering along. There’s nothing to suggest it’s going away soon. It’s likely we are going to experience a protracted era of stagflation if such a scenario plays out.
Gaius
318
You are correct about consumer spending, but GDP (which could be defined many ways) is defined mostly by a smaple that heavily weights consumer spending
Right now we have
- declining GDP
- and inflation.
by definiton that means declining labor productivity whihc defeinietly leads to unemployment.
EX:
Yesterday a team of engineers wrote some software. The boss sold copies of it totalling $1m.
Today that same team wrote software. The boss sold it for only $900k which was worth only $800k after inflation.
Under such a scenario layoffs are inevitable.
Gaius
319
The US labor shortage exists almost entirely in blue-collar fields
- truck driver, factory worker, retail, warehouse.
Most of these jobs require being on one’s feet, moving and lifting things.
US unemployment exists almost exclusively in field where people sit at a desk, computer or telephone.
We are also the fattest nation in the history of humankind.
.
.
.
Coincidence?
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.
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Americans eat processed garbage with no nutritional value, loaded with calories, fat and chemicals.
Then these morbidly obese fat asses do no exercise, stare at computer screens, dye their hair, pierce and ink their bodies with nails then waddle around in the streets screaming “my body my choice” or “MAGA is fascism” bull ■■■■■
Question: Who the ■■■■ would want to impregnate one of these breeding sows anyway? And do you lard asses know you’ll develop coronary heart diseases, diabetes and a whole shopping list of other medical problems before you’re likely 40?
