OFFISHAL OHIO Special Electshon Thread


#342

There’s absolutely zero statistical rigor behind the conclusion you arrived at.

None whatsoever.


#343

I wouldn’t go that far, lol.


#344

I’ll believe it if Walker loses. He’s been so well firewalled that it’d take a tsunami for him to lose.


#345

He’s vulnerable. People in Wisconsin are used to governors who go out and mix with the public and talks to people. All he does is hide, make phone calls to GOP radio, and keep busy being governor of Republicans.

Plus, I think that feckless, impotent, crash and burn presidential run made him look really stupid.


#346

It’s certainly starting to look that way.


#347

Look at the polls just two weeks ago and ask yourself what factor in the equation changed?


#348

Two weeks ago O’Conner was trailing Balderson by one point.

Two weeks before that she was trailing by 9-11 points.

Right before Trump got there the race was a dead heat, and finished pretty much a dead heat

You think a less than one point change from the final polls results to the actual result represents a statistically significant difference such that we can label Trump a “wrecking ball for Democrat hopes”?

Are you being serious that you think these numbers help your case?


#349

Me neither but some people love to ride the roller coaster of emotions.

Lulubee seems to be one of those types.


#350

I’ve been paying a lot of attention to state and local races. Look at what happened in Virginia last November, for example.

I see a lot more of that happening around the country.


#351

Ah…you must be talking about the same poster who justified Tamil Rice’s shooting by saying that the police told him 3 times to drop the toy gun before they killed him. Unfortunately for the poster, the video itself showed that to be an impossibility.


#352

are you that dense or do you just play one on TV

I was a close election and went the R way by approx 1,500 votes out of 200,000 cast (3800 votes still waiting to be counted.

Allan


#353

“Wrecking ball” is winning a +10 trump district by 0.8%

LOL. Thats a reverse wrecking ball.

Allan


#354

Hey, WR, let’s try a simple math question:

Is (100% * 29%) + (36% * 28%) + (10% * 40%) >, =, or < (0% * 29%) + (64% * .28%) + (90% * 40%)?

Do you believe that “a point or two” is outside the MoE in this case?


#355

Trump has been an unmitigated disaster for your party. Not only has he energized the Democrats, but moderate Republicans seem to be leaving the party as well.


#356

Yup. This election is basically an IQ test for the Democratic Party. They’ve shown an uncanny ability to screw things up, but perhaps they’ve learned a bit over the past few years.


#357

All you have to do is look at the candidates they are putting out there.Look at this O’Connor guy.

Young and full of ideas of how to best govern,

Allan


#358

LOL , all I see are campaign platitudes, nothing of substance on that website.


#359

Maybe substantially cut into if the bloodbath extends to 2020.

Republicans have a major institutional advantage especially in the House and in all of those state legislatures, whose districts have been gerrymandered at least to the extent of Congressional districts since the 2010 census and their huge electoral wins that year.

It’d take a swing like 2010 in the direction of democrats PLUS extra percentage points to make up for that pro-Republican districting inertia.


#360

Its conservatives who are anti Trump like @nebraskafootball and @wonderingrover who have had enough.

Its trump’s party now.


#361

I remember when the tea party was all the rage. Many R candidates were running as small government conservatives in 2010 and 2012. Now they are nothing of the sort.

These “moderate” Ds will do the same but in reverse, voting for single payer etc once Ds are back in power.