NOT SO FAST: Republican DEFEATS Democrat in Arizona Special Election

Originally published at:

GOP candidate Debbie Lesko won the House special election in Arizona Tuesday night; fending off a fierce fight from her Democratic challenger and holding a pivotal district carried by Donald Trump in the 2016 election.

As the polls closed, Lesko defeated Democrat Hiral Tipirneni by a margin of 53% to 47%, dashing liberal hopes of turning the red seat blue heading into the high-stakes 2018 midterms.

The tighter-than-expected results are sending alarm bells throughout Republican circles in Washington, who are sounding the alarm over a district the President won by 21% over Hillary Clinton.

“These election results are a wake up call to Republicans in Arizona and nationally,” a major GOP donor told Politico. “Winning the Arizona 8th by such a small margin portends very little margin of error for Gov. Doug Ducey and the eventual Arizona Republican Senate nominee this fall.”

“Republicans shouldn’t be hitting the alarm, they should be slamming it," added another GOP strategist. “This district isn’t supposed to be competitive, and so to see this margin, especially with the Republicans pouring in resources here — again, it’s a tough year.”

The dems will take the House in the midterms, it’s a given. Winning by 5 in an overwhelmly red district is another canary in the coal mine.


This has been a very solid Republican district for years. Romney won there by 25% in 2012.

So we are talking about anywhere from a 15 to 20% swing in favor of the Democrats, which seems to be about what we are seeing around the country in other special elections. If this trend continues, and there is no reason to assume it won’t, you are talking about an absolute tsunami in November.

November will be when Sean and other “conservatives” will revert back to “we need to elect true conservatives” mantra.

1 Like

President Trump won that Congressional district by 21% while Republican Lesko won there by just 5.2%. (Trump won Arizona by 3.6%.) If Democratic Sinema loses in that Congressional district by about 5.2%, she will be Arizona’s next Senator for us here. The Republican needs to win in that Congressional district by at least 10% to win statewide in Arizona here.

1 Like

Losing is winning…OK…

Comparing presidential election years to congressional election years is a mistake…

Yeah remember alabama and PA-18 and the inventive ideas of why they won after the golden trump endorsement.

Kinda like the way he is endorsing the va nominee…lol

Losing is winning…


You only won in PA because the guy walked around with an AK-47.

I hope you’re right.

This looks a little like bragging about the Patriots beating a Junior College team. By more than a field goal!

The surprise isn’t that the Patriots won, it’s that the game lasted 60 minutes.

Blue wave bye bye…

The former R who stepped down after a scandal where he asked his employee to be a surrogate mother for him, ran unopposed the last couple of cycles. Deep red district.

Here’s what it has looked like in that district for the past number of races, congressional and otherwise. The congressional race has been unopposed R.

Race (D) (R) Margin
2018 House (special) 47.4% 52.6% 5.2%
2016 President 37.0% 58.1% 21.1%
2016 House --- 68.6%
2014 Governor 33.6% 61.2% 27.6%
2014 Atty. General 39.4% 60.6% 21.2%
2014 Sec'y of State 41.0% 59.0% 17.9%
2014 Sup't Pub. Inst. 43.9% 56.1% 12.3%
2014 House --- 75.8%
2012 Senate 38.9% 56.3% 17.4%
2012 President 36.9% 61.7% 24.8%
2012 House 35.1% 63.4% 28.3%

Agreed, There’s a curious juxtaposition here of the crowing thread title, and the body of the post talking about the amount of resources the GOP had to pour into this race to eek out a victory in a district that was previously a slam dunk.

Just to be clear, because the Republican that normally wins by 20 points won by 5 points it means that there won’t be a blue wave? Not sure I get the logic there.

A Dem candidate was not supposed to be even close to victory. The victory margin for the Rep is very concerning.

Curious, are you pretending to not understand or do you actually not understand? Would you like someone to explain what’s happening to you? You never have to be embarrassed to ask.

uhhh blue wave doesn’t mean taking out your bigger ships.

do you literally not know how waves work?

You know what? I wouldn’t even bother arguing with these cons in denial.