Next Time - Immediate Action Drill

Much has been made of Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and their results in this pandemic.

If we had followed their strategy and admitting our error in testing, we could have done something different.

If we had isolated and locked down

  1. New York
  2. New Jersey
  3. Michigan
  4. Louisiana
  5. Massachusetts
  6. Illinois
  7. California

On January 1st, we could have eliminated 90% (your number) of 75% of the deaths and all of the hospital overload.

NYC is always going to be a problem. So next time there is a hint of a viral respiratory epidemic anywhere in the world and even if we don’t have testing, tracking, etc. our first step should be to completely lock down New York City and surrounding areas.

This will allow us to keep the economy functioning, protect the hospital system and manage the numbers.

I think we can all agree to this.

Of course we’ll have to address the media-induced panic. NYC is the epicenter of that virus as well.


If we really want to “control” it, we could consider applying this strategy to the major population centers.

There will be outliers, I would have missed New Orleans. We can deal with them individually.

Air travel is the key vector globally.

Shut down protocols are seriously lacking.

Better to be too quick.

Politically, that is not a good enough incentive to implement these protocols. A high DOW is way too attractive.

Unless you have competent leadership with control over their urge to take the optimistic, aspirational gamble, these plans would never be used anyway.


If it is an immediate action drill, we are reducing human factor and personality dependence.

So we’re agreed then?

Your OP was good. This post wasn’t.

For someone who wants everything measured with data… there is no possible way you can see this is true.

What else should the media be reporting on that they aren’t?

I’d argue that the media has been the biggest driver of getting Trumps mitigation “plan” out to the masses.


Seems like a hassle, pulling the drawbridges up on all those states every time there’s a hint of something.

It’s easier just to elect people who do a good job responding to such events with sound judgement. Why even take the human factor out of it? A good human factor is extremely profitable, economically.

And, Texas would probably have to be included. Ebola in America started there. That’s the top three producing states closing automatically at the drop of a hat.

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You remember the “nurse” CBS said quit her job crying because her hospital made her work without a mask? Might want to look into that.


Ebola is not a respiratory infection. If you want to shut down Dallas, knock yourself out.

11 cases. Transplanted from Liberia.

Good reminder about the media though. Thanks.

This story?

One story? Out of how many?

What is your basis for saying “the media” drove panic?

Nope, not that one.

Because they did.

Any place that can reach DFW airport by road would need to be shut down. Dallas isn’t enough.

Because body fluids run roads?

11 cases is hardly an epidemic. Ebola is not a respiratory infection.

Perhaps you should read the post again.

But if you want to shut down Dallas to be fair, go right ahead.

Found it

This story incites panic? People went and bought toilet paper in mass because a nurse claimed she did not get a mask? :joy:

“Because they did”

You mean in THIS case you don’t need data to make a decision? Just feelings? Say it isn’t so.

Anyway, I think your plan is good. Looks similar to after action plans I’ve done after an incident. Find the most vulnerable spots and harden for the future.

Not to be fair, just to make your plan effective. Any state with an international airport probably needs to be shut down.

West Virginia was one of the last safe havens possibly because it lacked one.

Keep looking. That’s not all of it.

Effective for what? Not a respiratory infection. Personally I think locking down all big cities immediately might be too much. How about we lock them down in phases?

Say NYC and surrounding area immediately, no questions asked.

Phase 2 would be have a case or 10 in the state - lock down the big cities in that state immediately.