President Donald Trump brags that his new NAFTA deal is the most important trade agreement in U.S. history, but a congressionally mandated analysis due out next month is expected to show that it will provide only a slight boost to economic growth — or even cause a small decline.
One trade expert examining the deal predicts it’ll improve U.S. gross domestic product by only 0.1 percent.
Two other trade experts who have been reviewing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement also said the U.S. International Trade Commission report is likely to show an extremely slight gain in the GDP, and both said a minor decrease was possible.
That could be a problem for Trump.
Release of the ITC report — expected around April 19 — has been seen as a crucial moment in the Trump administration’s efforts to win congressional approval of the deal. A forecast of a minimal increase in the GDP, especially in the manufacturing sector, could make it hard for Trump to sell the agreement to Democrats and labor groups, who have been pressing for changes to be made through further negotiation.
So basically NAFTA 2.0 is going to be virtually the same as NAFTA 1.0, which will make it a pretty hard sell to those who were really displeased with NAFTA, and wanted to see the agreement overhauled.
I know there are a lot of Trump supporters here who blame NAFTA for a slew of issues. Rightfully so in many cases. What is your take on the reality that this new agreement will do very little to change the issues that arose out of NAFTA?
Do you back the NAFTA 2.0 deal, just because Trump slapped his signature on it? Or will you come out in opposition to it, because you care more about resolving the issues that needed to be resolved by a new agreement, and where clearly not in this one?
If he does withdraw us from NAFTA, without an agreement in place, it could bode very horribly for the overall US economy, and hasten the likely recession we will see.
Just because Trump says it’s ok, doesn’t make it ok. I look forward to seeing the details. Until then, I found this snippet in the OP article interesting.
“That’s not to say it’s not really big for some sectors that use it a lot,” Laura Baughman, president of Trade Partnership Worldwide, a Washington-based analytical firm, told POLITICO.
Not to make it personal, but as someone in the auto industry you should be very concerned over the final document. That’s one industry that could have substantial repercussions because of the demands of Lighthizer in the final agreement. Just saying.
Democrats won’t work with Trump because their base. They could careless whats good for the country. The dems have yet to pass any legislation in the house beside resolutions against Trump etc.
Also considering I’m sure you could find POLITICO predicting a crashing economy if Trump got elected. Like most of the media did. So, why would you believe anything they said about trade or the economy now!
