My Summary of the 2016 Election

Politics
1

Here is the summary I wrote for the 2016 Election as I saw it.
There are 59 data sheets to go with it.
Some I have posted, but no way I can post them all. Some are extremly long up to 33 kb of plain text.
But anyway, here is the summary.

B - SUMMARY 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

The 2016 Presidential Election Results were not surprising to me.

From June 16, 2015, the day Trump announced he was running for President, I paid attention everyday to the news on television, MSNBC on the Internet, all the polls reported on RealClear Politics, Huffpost Pollster and Wikipedia, Trump’s Facebook page, and watched every Trump rally on Youtube or Television.

I started studying and putting data together for the Election in the Summer of 2015. I had a feeling that the Election was going to be Historical.

The Data Sheets are products of 27 months of watching media, researching, compiling, organizing, and calculating data and information, and writing and thinking about it all.

I wrote and posted argument after argument everyday on why I thought Trump was going to win the Nomination and win the Election, on MSNBC.COM, from when Trump announced he was running through Election Day.

Before the Election most of the people who replied to my comments were nasty to me or flat out dismissed my points.

After the Election I noticed a lot of confusion about how and why Trump won. The confusion was not only coming from the people I saw commenting on NBC.COM articles, but also from professional news people on Television.

I decided to take the time and organize the data I have, and gather and organize more data, and present it here for anyone who wants to get out of the confusion and understand what happened.

Trump won 256 of 269 National Republican Polls for the nomination.

Trump held 438 campaign events in 511 days of the campaign.

The State Polls for the General Election were dead on accurate. The person leading the most recent State Poll available before the election won the State, 49 of 50 States.

Trump had 257 paths to victory based on my analysis of the States. Trump won 10 of those paths. Trump only needed one.

State voting records were set in many States by both candidates.

Trump won the rural and suburban areas with massive votes. Trump beat the Polls in many States based on this support. Trump won 2649 of 3152 Counties, Independent Cities, and Alaska State Voting Districts.

Looking at the Election from the perspective of Congressional Districts we can see the Districts for the most part holding to their nature , Democrat or Republican.

The rural and suburban support for Trump is highlighted in the data for the 4 States, that when added to Romney’s 24 States, brings Trump to 270 Electoral College Votes. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

For the past 25 Presidential Elections no Republican has won with less than 30 States and won every time reaching 30 States. Trump won 30 States.

Take the time and explore the Data Sheets I have put together, listed in the Table of Contents.

Here is a list of some of the issues Trump talked about during the 511 day campaign.

1 Trade, NAFTA, TPP
2 Illegal Immigration
3 Gun Rights
4 Lowering taxes
5 Responsible Government
6 US Supreme Court
7 Obamacare
8 Veterans Administration
9 Infrastructure
10 Military
11 Law and Order
12 ISIS and Terrorism
13 Government Regulations
14 Made in the USA
15 Government Waste
16 Drugs and border security
17 Corrupt Government
18 Pay for play
19 Fake News
20 Bringing money back from overseas
21 National debt
22 Freedom of Religion
23 Iran deal
24 NATO paying fair share
25 Drug prices

Here is a list from when Trump came down the escalator on June 16, 2015 I saw, followed, and understood, that told me Trump was always going to win.

1- For over 2 years, before and during the campaign, 65-72 % of the Nation continued to say the Nation is on the wrong track.

2- A 2 time elected Democrat President in office 2 full terms has not successfully handed over the Presidency to a Democrat in an election since the 1836 Election.

Democrat Martin Van Buren was elected in 1836 after two term Democrat President Andrew Jackson.

3- Trump rolled through the Primaries winning 253 of 269 National Republican Polls from June 16, 2015 through the last poll in May 2016. They stopped polling because the race was over.

4- Trump rolled through the Primaries winning 41 of the 56 contests.

5- Trump set all time record for total votes in Republican Primaries and Caucuses with over 14 million votes.

6- The Republicans set all time record for total votes in Primaries and Caucuses, with over 31 million votes.

7- Trump’s economic message kick-started the Ross Perot and Reagan Democrat voters in the Blue Wall and Mid-West States - Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

8- Trump was flying around the Nation doing events. 438 events in 511 days June 16, 2015 through November 7, 2016.

Clinton was barely seen or heard.

9- Trump was working in an actual Campaign.

Trump met with Veterans groups, Minority groups, Religious groups and Leaders.

Trump went to the Border and met with Border Patrol.

Trump went to the Flint water plant.

Trump went to Detroit and toured the City and attended Church.

Trump went to Steel mills and factories.

Trump went to Mexico and discussed the issues with the Mexican President.

Trump gave several official Policy Speeches.

Trump went on TV and was interviewed countless times.

Trump held many Press Conferences.

I paid attention closely everyday and I can honestly say I did not see a Clinton campaign being presented to the American People.

Clinton completely ignored the 1992 Ross Perot votes in the 4 key States. They did not vote for Bill Clinton.

Pennsylvania 18.20%
902,667

Ohio 20.98%
1,036,426

Michigan 19.30%
824,813

Wisconsin 21.51%
544,479

10- The CNN National Poll after the Republican Convention, July 21-24 had Trump up 5 points in the 4 way race.

11- The Washington Post 50 State Poll 4 way race, conducted August 9, 2016 through September 1, 2016, had Trump leading 25 States, tied in 2 States, and within 2 points in 3 States. Trump won 29 of those 30 states.

12- The Real Clear Politics daily list of each individual State Poll. Tracking this to Election Day, Trump was leading in 28 States and tied in 1 State, in the most recent Poll for each State. Trump won all 29 States.

13- The massive over-flowing rally crowds in huge venues.

14- The Republicans at the time of the Election held 247 of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives.

There was a surge of the Republican Party in Elections across the Nation on the State and Federal level 2010 through 2015.

The Republicans held a majority in the US Senate, State Governors, and State Legislatures.

15- With the 24 Romney States locked, as I saw it, Trump needed just 1 of 257 possible combinations from the 12 Battleground States and Maine CD 2.

I submit to the World the result of the Election, a Trump win, was predictable and apparent.

The Polls, the Campaigns, an understanding of History, and an understanding of the past Presidential Elections, especially in 1980, 1992, and 2012, pointed to a Trump victory.

Take a look at the Data Sheets.

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2

No one likes the summary I wrote?
What is wrong with it?

3

Too much text and not enough conspiracy theories.

4

HOW CAN IT BE TOO MUCH TEXT?
its no longer than a typical news article

5

It’s not a summary. If you summarized what you wrote, it would say: Trump was everywhere. Clinton could not keep up.

6

Well, it summarizes the election data sheets i worked 16 hours a day for 2 years on doesnt it?

A -1 2016 Election A-Z

========================================================
A - Table of Contents - 2016 Presidential Election

B - Summary 2016 Presidential Election

C - Trump Events 2015-2016 Campaign

D - 1 - Republican National Polls Trump Primary
D - 2 - Republican Primary Data 2016

E - 1 - Electoral Polls Alternate Analysis
E - 2 - 50 State Poll Real Clear Politics - My Tracking
E - 3 - 50 state Poll Washington Post
E - 4 - State Polls Summary

F - Electoral College Paths

G - 1 - 2016 Results - Overview
G - 2 - State Margins
G - 3 - Vote Records
G - 4 - Past 25 Elections - States W-L Analysis
G - 5 - Past 36 elections - States Won By 10 Percent
G - 6 - Perot Summary
G - 7 - Perot Voters Data

H - 2016 Presidential Election By Congressional District

I - 1 - Countryside PA-OH-MI-WI-IA 2016 - 2000
I - 2 - Pennsylvania County Analysis
I - 3 - Ohio County Analysis
I - 4 - Michigan County Analysis
I - 5 - Wisconsin County Analysis
I - 6 - Iowa County Analysis

J - Alaska 2016-2012 Results

K - 1 - County Wins By State
K - 2 - Counties in States Trump Won 100,000 Plus Votes
K - 3 - Counties in States Clinton Won 100,000 Plus Votes
K - 4 - County Vote Ranges Trump States
K - 5 - County Vote Ranges Clinton states
K - 6 - 3rd Party Counties Trump States
K - 7 - 3rd Party Counties Clinton States
K - 8 - County Vote Range Summary
K - 9 - Counties Over 500,000 Votes

L - 1 - Counties Flipped 2016 Trump - Clinton
L - 2 - Counties Flipped - Margin Romney 24
L - 3 - Counties Flipped - Margin 12 Up For Grabs States
L - 4 - Counties Flipped - Margin Clinton 14 Lock States, DC
L - 5 - Summary Results State-County margins

M - County by County
M - 1 - Clinton v Obama - Romney 24
M - 2 - Clinton v Obama - Romney 24
M - 3 - Clinton v Obama - 12 Up For Grabs States
M - 4 - Clinton v Obama - 12 Up For Grabs States
M - 5 - Clinton v Obama - Clinton 14 Lock States, DC
M - 6 - Clinton v Obama - Clinton 14 Lock States, DC
M - 7 - Clinton v Obama - Summary M-1 - M-6

N - County by County
N - 1 - Trump v Romney - Romney 24
N - 2 - Trump v Romney - Romney 24
N - 3 - Trump v Romney - 12 Up For Grabs States
N - 4 - Trump v Romney - 12 Up For Grabs States
N - 5 - Trump v Romney - Clinton 14 Lock States, DC
N - 6 - Trump v Romney - Clinton 14 Lock States, DC
N - 7 - Trump v Romney - Summary N-1 - N-6

O - 50 States - Counties Improved Votes in 2016

P - Summary - County - State - Data Sheets

Q - 1 - Voting and 3rd Party - Romney 24
Q - 2 - Voting and 3rd Party - 12 Up For Grabs States
Q - 3 - Voting and 3rd Party - Clinton 14 Lock States, DC
Q - 4 - Voting and 3rd Party - Summary Q-1, Q-2, Q-3

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7

It’s clear you put a lot of thought into your post. Give it some time.

8

How to you describe fox news, cnn, and msnbc?
they are on tv 24/7
the amount of stuff they put out is huge.
Should they cut back to broadcasting maybe 10 minutes a day? sO PEOPLE LIKE YOU CAN HEAR IT AND THATS THAT.

I dont get it.

9

Thanks for seeing that.
I am not some kid on here messing around.
Over 10,000 hours of work and thought went into it.

10

I’m not sure why you posted that to me.

11

cause you said my summary should be those 2 short lines.
So shouldnt the cable news cut back by the same percentage, from 24 hours a day to 10 minutes?
or does cable nrews get to do it
but i am not allowed cause i am just a deplorable low life/
is that it?
only the super rich get to really say whats on their mind?

12

Dont forget us libs. We get to say what’s on our mind as well

13

are you a liberal?
how would i know
i wrote this song about liberals
Wake up Voters
There’s a Trump vote
Burning up the polling
With a big red Nation
And the Flag
And on the campaign trail
I think we better vote Trump
‘Cause it don’t
Look like we’re here
To surrender our will
And it’s less than a year away
I hope we never come to stray
We got numbers on our side
Donald Trump
And he’s makin’ big waves

Our Jobs are gone
Deficit is mounting
In the budget
Big John’s been drinking
Since the NAFTA took our money
So the powers that be
Left us here
And we are sinkin’
And our debt turned twenty-trill
I was wonderin’ what to do
And the higher it got
The more those feelings grew

Donald’s rallies in the land
Felt reassurin’
He told us
Votes mean jobs, son
Numbers add up to somethin’
And when the first poll
Hit the news I saw it comin’
Raised our Nation up so high
Pundits stopped to wonder why
Then I saw truth
And Trump’s face splashed in the sky

Shelter me from the liberal
And the liar
Cover me with the vote
That pulled the trigger
Think of me
As one they never figured
Won’t fade away so young
With so much left undone
Hillary’s deplorables
I knew we’d dis her

14

All I said was that THAT would be a summary.

Cable news doesn’t say they are a summary.

You’re allowed to post what you want. I was just helping by pointing out that what you posted was not a summary. (At least not in the context of the threads and posts on this board.)

Know your audience. You have squeezed the equivalent content of scads of other threads posted over years of this board … all into one post, and then called it a summary. In that format, it’s not going to get traction here. The very next post in this thread is you asking why nobody wanted to engage with it. I’m trying to help you see why.

15

thats all cable news is a summary
there are no details.
its all one giant 24/7 mishmash summary.
I did all that work in the election table of contents
and i wrote a short summary
if i were to write a paper on it, like for college, it would a 200 page paper
so my summary compared to that, is a summary.
and news, lol, news on tv,…
that’s all it ever is
people summarizing what they think
there is never any massive amount of data shown, and that by default makes it a summary by definition

16

Which is why I said:

Know your audience. That’s all I’m trying to tell you.

And I see others are trying to tell you that too.

You can see (I hope) that the only discussion your post has generated is analysis of your style. That should tell you something.

PS: You’re not the first to face this on the board. “Wall of text” has hindered others as well.

17

my audience is whoever in the world has a computer and the internet.
I have wrote longer stuff that had much better response
so i’m thinking siomething else is going on,
thats why i wrote that comment number 2 under the first post.
Listen,
The news has spent years day after day, telling me a totally different story about the election.
I did the work by hand, by myself, hand and eye, i damaged my eyes doing it, i had to get glasses,…
So I COULD SEE WHAT THE TRUTH WAS.
Anyone going by the news about the election has no clue what happened.
The summary I posted is not random thoughts, not is any of it taken from the news.
The summary is the result of massive amount of work by me.
I ADDED COLUMNS OF NUMBERS SO MANY TIMES OVER AND OVER AGAIN YOUR HEAD WOULD SPIN,… ALL BY HAND, ON THE CALCULATOR.

18

I tried to help.

1 Like
19

I guess the joke was on you…

20

Hillary Clinton did end up completely neglecting Wisconsin and mostly neglected Michigan. But Hillary did campaign a lot in Pennsylvania. Voter turnout was high in PA while voter turnout was very low in WI for the 2016 Presidential election. MI was very close with Trump winning that state by 0.23%. During the 2018 midterms, Democrats won all of the Senate and Governor races from PA, MI and WI. (Senator Casey of PA won his reelection bid by as much as 13.1%.) I believe that at least two of those three states will be won by the Democratic nominee for the 2020 Presidential election.