Musk Acquires Twitter

[PurpnGold]

@zantax

@PurpnGold

@zantax

@TommyLucchese

@tnt

Looks like musk is trying to back out?

Why wouldn’t he have verified the accounts before making his offer?

Perhaps the skeptics were right?

This whole farce is now done. Musk said he’d buy but only at a lower price, which violates the agreement in principle he reached with their board. Not that it wasn’t super obvious he would never buy it.

Their valuation is directly tied to the number of real users they have, if they are lying about the number of bots it won’t be him that broke the deal, it will be them.

Why didn’t he verify this before the offer? How does he know it’s higher? It’s all a stall tactic.

My guess is, he suspected they were lying, now he gets a billion if he proves they are. And destroys their stock which he can then acquire for pennies on the dollar.

It would be a complete guess unless he had inside information prior to the offer.

He can’t prove they are… he has no ability to accurately dispute the numbers. Also assuming they are lying is not a great way to start as the potential new owner.

Bot identification is very hard. It uses 10-20 attributes to attempt to identify bots. But it’s all based on pattern matching.

[zantax]

@PurpnGold

@zantax

@PurpnGold

@zantax

@TommyLucchese

@tnt

Looks like musk is trying to back out?

Why wouldn’t he have verified the accounts before making his offer?

Perhaps the skeptics were right?

This whole farce is now done. Musk said he’d buy but only at a lower price, which violates the agreement in principle he reached with their board. Not that it wasn’t super obvious he would never buy it.

Their valuation is directly tied to the number of real users they have, if they are lying about the number of bots it won’t be him that broke the deal, it will be them.

Why didn’t he verify this before the offer? How does he know it’s higher? It’s all a stall tactic.

My guess is, he suspected they were lying, now he gets a billion if he proves they are. And destroys their stock which he can then acquire for pennies on the dollar.

It would be a complete guess unless he had inside information prior to the offer.

He can’t prove they are… he has no ability to accurately dispute the numbers. Also assuming they are lying is not a great way to start as the potential new owner.

Bot identification is very hard. It uses 10-20 attributes to attempt to identify bots. But it’s all based on pattern matching.

We shall see.

[tnt]

@zantax

Their valuation is directly tied to the number of real users they have, if they are lying about the number of bots it won’t be him that broke the deal, it will be them.

Why wouldn’t he have raised this concern prior to making his offer? If it is key to the valuation, how could he be uncertain before putting up a price?

[TheDoctorIsIn]

@zantax

Their valuation is directly tied to the number of real users they have, if they are lying about the number of bots it won’t be him that broke the deal, it will be them.

Twitter’s FEC filings - which have stated the estimated number of spam accounts at 5% (1) were available well before Musk made his offer; and (2) contain a disclaimer:

We have performed an internal review of a sample of accounts and estimate that the average of false or spam accounts during the third quarter of 2021 represented fewer than 5% of our mDAU during the quarter. The false or spam accounts for a period represents the average of false or spam accounts in the samples during each monthly analysis period during the quarter. In making this determination, we applied significant judgment, so our estimation of false or spam accounts may not accurately represent the actual number of such accounts, and the actual number of false or spam accounts could be higher than we have estimated.

https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001418091/22854ac5-ea3e-4e62-8cf7-7599759d3dff.pdf

The fact that Musk failed to perform due dilligence prior to making his offer does not somehow translate to Twitter “breaking” the deal.

[zantax]

@tnt

@zantax

Their valuation is directly tied to the number of real users they have, if they are lying about the number of bots it won’t be him that broke the deal, it will be them.

Why wouldn’t he have raised this concern prior to making his offer? If it is key to the valuation, how could he be uncertain before putting up a price?

Umm because like I said, now he gets a billion dollars if he can prove they are lying.

[tnt]

@zantax

My guess is, he suspected they were lying, now he gets a billion if he proves they are. And destroys their stock which he can then acquire for pennies on the dollar.

How can he prove anything from the outside?

[tnt]

@zantax

Umm because like I said, now he gets a billion dollars if he can prove they are lying.

He doesn’t need a billion dollars.

[zantax]

@tnt

@zantax

Umm because like I said, now he gets a billion dollars if he can prove they are lying.

He doesn’t need a billion dollars.

And? Doesn’t mean he doesn’t want another billion and to ruin twitter.

[TheDoctorIsIn]

@zantax

Umm because like I said, now he gets a billion dollars if he can prove they are lying.

How exactly do you expect him to “prove” that they’re lying?

[tnt]

@zantax

And? Doesn’t mean he doesn’t want another billion and to ruin twitter.

Seems to me you are stretching to excuse a rich man trying to back out of a deal.

[zantax]

@TheDoctorIsIn

@zantax

Umm because like I said, now he gets a billion dollars if he can prove they are lying.

How exactly do you expect him to “prove” that they’re lying?

He is asking them to prove their SEC claim. And I wouldn’t be placing bets that the guy with some of the best AI on the planet can’t analyze how many are real users from publicly available data.

[PurpnGold]

@TheDoctorIsIn

@zantax

Their valuation is directly tied to the number of real users they have, if they are lying about the number of bots it won’t be him that broke the deal, it will be them.

Twitter’s FEC filings - which have stated the estimated number of spam accounts at 5% (1) were available well before Musk made his offer; and (2) contain a disclaimer:

We have performed an internal review of a sample of accounts and estimate that the average of false or spam accounts during the third quarter of 2021 represented fewer than 5% of our mDAU during the quarter. The false or spam accounts for a period represents the average of false or spam accounts in the samples during each monthly analysis period during the quarter. In making this determination, we applied significant judgment, so our estimation of false or spam accounts may not accurately represent the actual number of such accounts, and the actual number of false or spam accounts could be higher than we have estimated.

https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001418091/22854ac5-ea3e-4e62-8cf7-7599759d3dff.pdf

The fact that Musk failed to perform due dilligence prior to making his offer does not somehow translate to Twitter “breaking” the deal.

Bingo.

[PurpnGold]

@zantax

@TheDoctorIsIn

@zantax

Umm because like I said, now he gets a billion dollars if he can prove they are lying.

How exactly do you expect him to “prove” that they’re lying?

He is asking them to prove their SEC claim. And I wouldn’t be placing bets that the guy with some of the best AI on the planet can’t analyze how many are real users from publicly available data.

He can’t. He may have people in Tesla or SpaceX who can, be He won’t be able to.

AI is why bots exist in the first place… so if you think Twitter isn’t already using AI/ML to identify bot accounts… I have a bridge to sell you.

[TommyLucchese]

@zantax

Their valuation is directly tied to the number of real users they have, if they are lying about the number of bots it won’t be him that broke the deal, it will be them.

I don’t know how to say this any clearer: the whole agreement in principle with Twitter is to buy the shares at a certain price. Once you say, nah, I want it cheaper, that’s it. You’ve broken it.

My God, Musk himself can’t be like I’m not doing this without people claiming that he still is.

[TommyLucchese]

@zantax

And? Doesn’t mean he doesn’t want another billion and to ruin twitter.

Oh you’re hoping Musk will do things that make your grievances feel better. This really is Trump transference.

[TheDoctorIsIn]

@zantax

He is asking them to prove their SEC claim.

Don’t you think he should have asked them for that before he made an offer?

@zantax

And I wouldn’t be placing bets that the guy with some of the best AI on the planet can’t analyze how many are real users from publicly available data.

Arguing that Twitter’s numbers are wrong is not the same as proving they were lying.

[SixFoot]

@zantax

And? Doesn’t mean he doesn’t want another billion and to ruin twitter.

Lots of libs squealing like spoiled piggies for a Tesla boycott now. They still haven’t realized that the normal world falls in love with everything they hate.

[party-free]

@zantax

Doesn’t mean he doesn’t want another billion and to ruin twitter.

Really? “If I can’t have it my way, then burn it down!”

Definitely the guy you want running the company, amirite or amirite…or amirite?

[SixFoot]

[PurpnGold]

I still find it funny that conservatives think Elon is their savior. Feels like it was just yesterday when they thought electric vehicles are “woke green new deal non sense”