Mulvaney: Cruz could lose


#161

Sure they do…if that makes you feel better


#162

It shows at the very least he is listening to folks who even disagree with him…thats what Joanne doesnt get…that why he has a shot…


#163

Yeah I’m not really buying the idea that’s the primary vote totals matter here. Beto is several orders of magnitude more well known now than he was then.


#164

If I lived in Texas, I would vote for Beto.


#165

You are ignoring a few things here. For one, one may be in federal office and the other a head of the state, but they are both conservatives.

Secondly, a NY “Republican” is hardly distinguishable from a Dem. The same is not true of Beto and Ted, and probably not of Greg and his opponent.

Third, the left is refusing to acknowledge the fawning, gushing media coverage of Beto must be having an affect. He’s been touted as a Presidential candidate in 2020, even if he loses in November.

So there is nothing flawed about my thinking as well. It’s likely that some voters are being influenced by the fawning coverage, they don’t particularly like Ted and are showing up at his rallies. That seems to be what is going on here.


#166

Get over the media already…jesus…we get it…you think the media is in the tank for him…

Its already been explained why that’s dumb


#167

It’s not dumb. The fact you can’t see it doesn’t surprise me though.


#168

Yeah it really is…as evident in my pointing out about trump…

Also the fact Cruz is such a household name…and it is close…makes the story exciting and draw viewers…

Not this dumb conspiracy crap from the right about teh media is liberal blah blah blah…


#169

Cruz is a national political figure who came close to winning the GOP nomination. Now he’s struggling in a red state. That’s a much bigger storyline than many of the others who are essentially unknown outside their own states.


#170

Yet one candidate is leading by a couple of miles and the other is statistically tied. That tells you right off the bat that voters in Texas do not see the two are the same and can differentiate between the two.

Care to explain that point. How exactly is a NY Republican the same as a Democrat? This is an extremely ignorant point, which begs more explaining. Why? Because our state does not favor discrimination laws against LGBTQ people? Because we care more about jobs, economy, trade, rather than the kneeling for the Anthem or injecting religion into the public square?

If you did any ounce of research into my state, you would know that from Albany to NYC, it’s heavily liberal/Democrat. From Albany to Canada, it’s pretty red. For example, I live in a very red town in NY. It’s so red that all of our town officials are Republican. My local ballot is basically either the Republican or the write-in candidate. What exactly makes the Red portion of NY no different than the Blue portion? The only difference is that we do not push our religious ideology on other people, nor do we care how someone chooses to sleep with or identify as. Pataki pretty much hit all the conservative bells except for abortion. I believe he was pro-choice, but supported heavy restrictions.

As others have pointed out, we essentially have a Republican, who (a) ran for President and came in 2nd place (b) lives in a traditional red state, and © continues to lose ground both in the polls and in campaign donations. This is a big story. You essentially have a household name, struggling to beat out a liberal Democrat in a state which leans to the right.

You’re ignoring the polls.

You’re ignoring the history of voter enthusiasm and money fundraising.

Cruz’s numbers should be equivalent to Abbot’s numbers. Cruz should be raising more money than O’Rourke. Cruz shouldn’t be begging help from a President who ridiculed his wife, father, and accused him of being a liar and a snake.

The man is in deep, deep trouble.


#171

How exactly is Beto a fraud? He’s currently a Rep. TX-16. I’m sure he’s well aware of the ins and outs of government, not like Idiot Boy in the WH.

Cruz is just smarmy. He’s got that “ick” factor.


#172

Exactly. It’s a big story: U.S Senate race, highly contested, with a household name competing against a relatively unknown person who seems to have left-of-center political beliefs.

Don’t be shocked either if minorities vote for him in droves and tip the scale, much like Doug Jones did against Roy Moore.

I have seen too many elections over the years, and know how the game works. If it’s close, the winner will be the candidate with the most excitement attached to it.


#173

I bet you he sways some conservatives because he went and talked to them on a personal level…wont be a ton but I bet he picks some off…


#174

Eh, I don’t see it.

Think you’re assuming 1: He’s not a megalomaniac, and 2: He has a sense of shame.

Wouldn’t bet on either.

imo he thinks he’s destined by God to be President and will do just about anything to get there.


#175

Agree. I have no doubt that the majority of conservatives/Republicans will vote for Cruz, and about 15%-20% will vote for O’Rourke.

O’Rourke is pretty much doing the same strategy as G.W Bush did to beat Ann Richards: Knock on every door and getting tons of money to get out his name and message.

With the polls being tight, it all depends on which side is the most motivated and can get out the most unexpected.

It’s naive for people on the right to argue, “Well, it’s a Red state, of course Cruz’s troops will be ready and motivated”. That’s not at all what happens. When Doug Jones “upset” Roy Moore, we found out that minorities in that state voted for Jones in droves and the unexpected voter base turned out. Moore’s campaign was hampered by the fact that people were not really excited about his campaign.

The Dems learned that hard lesson too in the 2016 presidential election. They assumed that the rust belt would go for Clinton. You know, because they have been voting that way for the last two decades. But it turned out that voters in those states were more motivated to vote for Trump, therefore he won virtually all of those states.


#176

Check the new NPR story that I saw

Again it’s a poll and the rights answer will be to look at 2016…but this should have them worried. The gap is getting larger…and the Senate might be in play…might being a strong word here.


#177

Yep. Even though the chances of flipping the Senate are slim… there is still a chance.

Which is why McConnel is forcing the Kavanaugh appointment through as fast as he can.


#178

Yeah…we are watching one of the greatest scandals in my opinion in our time. The stealing of a scotus seat.


#179

Interesting new poll from CBS. Cruz leads Beto by 4 points, while Abbott leads Valdez by 19. But this same poll shows 21% have no opinion on Beto, which Cruz will probably correct with ads, showing him to be out of touch with a lot of Texas voters.

Trump’s approval rating in Texas is 51%, a fair bit above the national average but not great for a red state.


#180

I just donated to Beto’s campaign.