Mulvaney: Cruz could lose


#121

Most of the population of Texas lives within the 6 largest metro areas. In fact, over 70% do. It only takes the top 3 MSAs to get over 50%.


#122

They’re really crushing him, showing how he skateboarded and was in a punk band and jammed with Willie Nelson and says ■■■■ a lot. Lol


#123

Only a mother could love this face…


#124

I just spent the last 15 minutes on her twitter feed and I don’t regret it.


#125

Antecdotal, but I’m seeing a lot more enthusiasm for Beto here. I’ve seen some “Beto for Senate” shirts and tons of yard signs. I haven’t seen a single one for Cruz. And I live in Tx-27, which is a red district.


#126

Romney had more yard signs than Obama.

Landslide!


#127

No he wont


#128

I live in an area of Dallas that went for Trump, but there were hardly any yard signs of Trump compared to Hillary. Most people just dont do that in this area.
You are correct…anecdotal.


#129

I think Cruz will win, but I think he’ll underperform Trump’s 9.6% margin of victory.


#130

Also, although cities like DFW and Houston are liberal, aren’t the outlying communities fairly conservative? Rs tend to do well in suburbs.

There are a few reasons why I think Cruz will win. The first is Greg Abbott is expected to coast to reelection, and I can’t see that many people splitting the ticket.

Also, Cruz won more primary votes than all the other Ds running combined, and Cruz had no real credible challenger.

And finally… it’s Texas.


#131

While I agree Cruz will win, Texas isn’t nearly as red as most people believe.


#132

You can do a deep dive by precinct here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html#5.22/34.79/-96.58


#133

It’s not as red as Louisiana or SC for sure, but still red.


#134

Trump won Texas by fewer than 10%. That’s quite a bit less than many other states.


#135

So? I’ve seen polls with Greg Abbott having as much as a 20 point lead. Maybe Texans just like Abbott a lot better than Trump.

I’d certainly be pleased to vote for Abbott if I lived in Texas. In fact I’d be thrilled to have him, instead of the idiot I’m stuck with.


#136

Cruz = beta cuck, for sure


#137

Rapey Face


#138

The funny part is that there were people here, who constantly brag about predicting Trump’s win, who made the yard sign claim. I was a lurker then and I remember specifically that whole embarrassing fiasco.


#139

If Cruz loses I’ll survive. It’ll certainly be a huge story if this upstart Beto wins. We need a few people in the senate who still have a pulse to shake things up


#140

I do not doubt that Texas leans toward the right and has more Republicans than Democrats.

The point you’re missing from my post is that many Republicans and conservatives are leaning toward O’Rourke. His rallies are filled with a people who are conservative, libertarian, moderate, and liberal.

If Cruz continues to lose ground and doesn’t have a motivated base, he will most certainly lose.

It’s rather naive to ignore the hidden voter base or the fact that O’Rourke is being new voters to the table.