Given that the Fed has to go

  • from literally interest rate = zero
  • to interest > inflation
    they have a long way to move and it is difficult to know what speed they should use in getting there.

The sad fact is 1) comments from Powell, and 2) comments from other FOMC members and 3) the dot-plot each indicate the Fed has not yet come to grips with the fact that their terminal rate needs to be “that high.”

They still believe the current basket of policies will cause inflation to come down and stay down. They are wrong in that belief. They are still “too dovish.”