ESTABLISHMENT DATA (B Tables)

Federal government employment falls by 10,000 in February as DOGE cuts slowly...
The early impact of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is beginning to show up in the jobs report.
Not upside down? Well that’s good.
HOUSEHOLD DATA (A Tables)
Y-o-Y comparison on this one
Note: For reasons I have never understood
BLS makes M-o-M comparisons easy in almost every category except this one. Here it presents the data differently and makes researchers mine for the details
I think you probably do understand.
Great news. When the heck did the rate go above 4. Not blaming Trump for that obvi. Interesting on the foreign born. May be @Gaius was right. Nope not gonna admit it nope nope nope
When unemployment rises,
it tends to rise quite a bit and very quickly
Minor upticks in unemployment are a rarity.
That is one of the reasons people who, like myself think the economy is in trouble
often sound super doomy-gloomy.
Mentally missed that. In my head it has been at 3.6 or 3.7 for like 5 years lol
Covid? Anomaly
Maybe there is a conspiracy to hide each month’s bad news until the “revisions.” (wink)
I am not sure what role COVID plays today.
I have added a green arrow in the chart below
The data beneath the green arrow is unusual.
It is much more likely the next major move will be in the same time-tested normal pattern we have seen many times.
The big spike.
Yes the 15% spike caused by the COVID shutdown was an anomaly.
Not federal govt jobs…
The early impact of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is beginning to show up in the jobs report.
Call me crazy,
but I anticipate some pretty big changes in the jobs report
over the next few months.
Between the DOGE cuts and the private sector ripple effects I think you are right.