March Jobs Report: Gov't jobs rise 11,000, overall jobs rise 151,000

ESTABLISHMENT DATA (B Tables)

Not upside down? Well that’s good.

HOUSEHOLD DATA (A Tables)
Y-o-Y comparison on this one

Note: For reasons I have never understood
BLS makes M-o-M comparisons easy in almost every category except this one. Here it presents the data differently and makes researchers mine for the details

I think you probably do understand. :wink:

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Great news. When the heck did the rate go above 4. Not blaming Trump for that obvi. Interesting on the foreign born. May be @Gaius was right. Nope not gonna admit it nope nope nope :upside_down_face:

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It has broken 4% several times in recent past

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When unemployment rises,
it tends to rise quite a bit and very quickly

Minor upticks in unemployment are a rarity.
That is one of the reasons people who, like myself think the economy is in trouble
often sound super doomy-gloomy.

Mentally missed that. In my head it has been at 3.6 or 3.7 for like 5 years lol

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Covid? Anomaly

Maybe there is a conspiracy to hide each month’s bad news until the “revisions.” (wink)

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I am not sure what role COVID plays today.

I have added a green arrow in the chart below
The data beneath the green arrow is unusual.
It is much more likely the next major move will be in the same time-tested normal pattern we have seen many times.

The big spike.

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Yes the 15% spike caused by the COVID shutdown was an anomaly.

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Not federal govt jobs…

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correct, sort of

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State jobs aren’t going anywhere.

Call me crazy,
but I anticipate some pretty big changes in the jobs report
over the next few months.

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Between the DOGE cuts and the private sector ripple effects I think you are right.

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Ahem

Goods-producing jobs, including manufacturing, saw a significant increase, accounting for 22% of new jobs in the recent report, (covering February) compared to 13.7% of total jobs on February 1st.

This represents a notable proportionate jump.

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