We had heard this song before.

Allan

No, I’m suggesting that if Hizbollah can fight Israel to a draw, Iran won’t fare any worse. And the geopolitics of the region no longer allow for a contained, rational Turkey.

Israel cannot even count on US backing if it goes hot.

You like to keep sending tax payer money there? i guess doing the same thing for 50 years is going to work any time now.

I think they are going to it is getting more heated than I can remember in years the defense minister in own words is telling the world to watch in the next few weeks.

Question is it going to be a surgical strike on the nuclear plants or more.

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Ya no ■■■■ even Biden is not far let enough to side with the “Death to America” side. I think one of the problems is some on the left think Iran is bluffing on nuking Israel while not taking to account mutually assured destruction might not sound like such a bad idea to the clerics of Iran.

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I see. So you reject the notion that the state of Iran will go to war, they will continue to act by proxy?

worked great while trump was president. biden returning to the failed palestinian centric aspirational policies of the past has brought back failure.

so many untruths in one statement.

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Perhaps we shouldn’t have pulled out of the Iran deal. Pulling out seems to have done nothing in preventing Iran from becoming nuclear. Heck, it likely sped it up!

so many denials in one reply

the deal did nothing to prevent it

Amazing your certainty over a “what-if” scenario.

there is no what if. the deal sunsetted in 10 years. even if they did follow it, which they didn’t, they still would have been free to build a nuke

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And you can see the future to know there would have been no continuation deal at expiration of the first. Fascinating.

and you somehow believe there would… naive

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Go to war? No.

42 years cagey, Tehran. And especially under Raisi, not likely to ‘go to war’. He has a mandate to find an end-around on sanctions and improve Iran’s economy.

Make life exceedingly difficult for Tel Aviv if the coalition gov’t overtly attacks Iranian territory?

Yes, absolutely.

Israel gets away with the off the books stuff. Iran gets away with giving money to Hizbollah.

If Israel starts an on the books shooting war with Iran, Iran only has to not lose to win, while Israel faces the real prospect of international sanctions and the Sino-Russian treaty umbrella over Iran triggering a cascade of events the US is not positioned to counter.

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I have to agree. Israel doesn’t have the resources to deal with Iran in a full scale conflict and the sanctions from Europe would cripple them economically.

Neither one can wage a full scale war without destroying their economies completely. And if the US and China/Russia get drug in, it’ll get really ugly. Possibly nuclear.

They’ll find a way to keep the Cold War they have going without making it a hot war. It’s in their best interests to do so.

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15 years is a long time…many hardliners of old would have died off. Considering there are undercurrents of liberalization in Iran, I feel that Iran will start to change over the next 15 years.

If they do it they’ll have to be clandestine about it. Possibly use anti-Mullah forces in Iran to carry it out. Plausible deniability.

Israel has the superior military, but they lack the economic capabilities to provide for the IDF in a conflict against Iran, which is a pretty good distance from Israel. In the Six Day War and Yom Kippur, they were fighting mostly on or near their own territory. Supply issues weren’t a constraint for them. Iran would be an entirely different animal.

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That’s odd. Twice in 2017 US govt certified that Iran had been following the deal.