Lindsey Graham struggling in South Carolina

Before we go any farther and before anybody gets the wrong idea, I believe that, barring a total Democratic tsunami in November, that Graham will be reelected. But it will be a lot closer than what it should be in such a red State.

While Sabato maintains the South Carolina Senate race as Likely Republican, Cook has just moved it to Lean Republican and with justification.

Lindsey Graham has never been a resoundingly popular figure in South Carolina. He has consistently under-performed Senator Scott. Scott has exceeded 60% of the vote twice, Graham has never done so.

Harrison has a tough road to win this election. He has to have a vastly increased turnout in the counties that went Democratic in 2014, Jasper, Hampton, Allendale, Barnwell, Bamberg, Orangeburg, Calhoun, Richmond, Fairfield, Clarendon, Sumter, Lee, Darlington, Williamsburg, Marlboro, Dillion and Marion. And he will have to flip several other counties, including Charleston, Colleton, Florence and Chester.

Several other counties that Harrison will not be able to flip but where he can narrow the margin, Dorcester, Berkeley, Georgetown, Kershaw and Chesterfield.

The REAL problem is not so much the danger that Graham will actual lose, which remains low. The REAL problem is that it will force Republicans to expend valuable resources propping up a candidate who should not need to be propped up.

Nov 7 2016 Cook report.

Of the 6 states listed as “Lean Democrat”, three went Republican.
Of the five states listed as “Lean Republican”, one went Democrat.

Just a little history on the Cook Report, and why Democrats might like to use them.

I don’t really like Graham, but he is going to win his re-election bid. South Carolina is too red of a state for him to lose.

Cherry picking history.

More often than not, Cook has been accurate.

Not to mention, as I took great pains to point out in the OP, Cook is NOT picking Harrison to win.


graham in a South Carolina landslide.

Scott seems to be the only Senator that can win in a South Carolina landslide.

Graham is the poster child for under-performer.

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Cherry picking? I went to right before the last election as the most obvious point.

My one-year-old slept through the night last night. The previous 30 nights he did not.

I’m going to be groggily stumbling to the nursery at 2am, regardless of the most recent instance.

This phenomenon is a cognitive bias known as recency effect, where the most recent activity weighs more heavily than past activities.

It also plays out in individual experiences (called the peak-end rule). People will endure a longer event of discomfort if it ends with discomfort reduction versus a shorter event with the same initial discomfort:

Subjects were exposed to two aversive experiences: in the short trial, they immersed one hand in water at 14 °C for 60 s; in the long trial, they immersed the other hand at 14 °C for 60 s, then kept the hand in the water 30 s longer as the temperature of the water was gradually raised to 15 °C, still painful but distinctly less so for most subjects. Subjects were later given a choice of which trial to repeat. A significant majority chose to repeat the long trial, apparently preferring more pain over less. The results add to other evidence suggesting that duration plays a small role in retrospective evaluations of aversive experiences; such evaluations are often dominated by the discomfort at the worst and at the final moments of episodes.

Fascinating stuff!


Gee, maybe being a complete fake has something to do with it…

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Sorry if that was over your head.

Here’s a 2 minute video of people being hit in the groin with things instead.


More like beneath my feet

Yes - most Nobel prize winning economists who revolutionized the field are beneath you.

Good post.

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Your copy and paste had absolutely no relevance to my post to which it was attached.

I’ll draw it for you.

(For reference, you’re the grouchy little guy, the circles are the historical Cook polls, the size growth indicates the recency effect, the pluses indicate correct, the minus indicates incorrect, and the little guy’s conclusion is of course based on the most recent instance.)

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Oh…good, thank you.
I thought it was me.

Cute. No relevance.

Great post. This truly is fascinating stuff. And ever-so-relevant, especially in today’s era of information at our fingertips and our long-term memory retention waning as a result of less need to store data-driven information.

And this is why you remain one of my favorite posters here!!! :clap:


With all the intervening stuff, I think everybody is missing the point here. :smile:

This is NOT about Graham losing.

This is about Graham under-performing and thus making life even more miserable for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

By all rights, Graham should be able to take a leisurely canoe trip down the Great Pee Dee River, not have to lift a finger, and win South Carolina in a landslide.

He should be rated Safe Republican by all rating groups.

Instead, he is Lean Republican and forcing Republicans to spend money on yet another seat that they shouldn’t even have to pay attention to.

THAT is the point here.