Before we go any farther and before anybody gets the wrong idea, I believe that, barring a total Democratic tsunami in November, that Graham will be reelected. But it will be a lot closer than what it should be in such a red State.
While Sabato maintains the South Carolina Senate race as Likely Republican, Cook has just moved it to Lean Republican and with justification.
Lindsey Graham has never been a resoundingly popular figure in South Carolina. He has consistently under-performed Senator Scott. Scott has exceeded 60% of the vote twice, Graham has never done so.
Harrison has a tough road to win this election. He has to have a vastly increased turnout in the counties that went Democratic in 2014, Jasper, Hampton, Allendale, Barnwell, Bamberg, Orangeburg, Calhoun, Richmond, Fairfield, Clarendon, Sumter, Lee, Darlington, Williamsburg, Marlboro, Dillion and Marion. And he will have to flip several other counties, including Charleston, Colleton, Florence and Chester.
Several other counties that Harrison will not be able to flip but where he can narrow the margin, Dorcester, Berkeley, Georgetown, Kershaw and Chesterfield.
The REAL problem is not so much the danger that Graham will actual lose, which remains low. The REAL problem is that it will force Republicans to expend valuable resources propping up a candidate who should not need to be propped up.