This is at the core of it. When the USSR fell, we thought we could remake Russia into a capitalist neoliberal freemarket country and instead it opened the doors for a few bullies to start monopolies based on the remnants of state enterprise. And now we have the end result- a despotic regime surrounded by kleptocrats propping up the populace with oil and gas money.
Honestly Russia has failed at modernizing and joining the rest of the world since Catherine the Great. In the last (little over) 100 years they’ve gone from tsars to despotic communists to robber barron maniacal tyrants.
The trajectory of this country ain’t great- with or without Putin.
Russia as it currently stands probably won’t exist in 50 years.
A bunch of the ethnic minorities want out and have wanted out since Peter the Great.
Ukraine winning this war by keeping its independence will probably end up inspiring other uprisings over the next few decades.
I think that’s why Putin is so dedicated to proving to everyone that Russia is still a great power. He has to know the day is coming when Russia consists solely of the land between Moscow and St. Petersburg.
I think Xi would like Xiden for maybe a year longer to fritter away US dollars and munitions in Ukraine and on unproductive and debilitating liberal causes, and increase domestic chaos and resource shortages to limit the US ability to respond to China post a 2024 presidential change.