Before we even start, Republicans can take ZERO credit for any election victories they pull off (beyond those predicted in my August and September updates).
Democrats take 100% of the credit and Republicans should simply enjoy any unearned runs they receive.
For example, Democrats have ■■■■■■ up the very best advantage they have and that is on abortion, They have over-emphasized abortion and ignored the economy. And instead attacking Republican extremism, they have led with some very extreme rhetoric of their own, which has destroyed their edge on this issue.
Republicans have the House of Representatives well in hand, so on to the Senate.
In Pennsylvania, we have a giant ■■■■■■ (Oz) versus a turd sandwich (Fetterman). Oz is just ■■■■■■■ horrible. If he actually wins, nothing will change, he will still be ■■■■■■■ horrible and hopefully a coordinated effort to oust him in the 2028 Republican primary will be made. Anybody Republican but Oz would be leading this race in a landslide. As for Fetterman, he should have dropped out. But personal political ambition tends to drown out common sense. Had Fetterman done the right thing, a replacement Democrat would have this race well in hand. If Oz wins, it will be no credit to either Oz or other Republicans, but purely an unearned run. Most handicappers have this race as a Tossup and I will join them. Pure TOSSUP.
In Nevada, the situation looks better for Laxalt by the day. Every handicapper has this race as a TOSSUP, with which I will concur, but with the slight advantage to Laxalt.
In Arizona, Masters has actually made a rise from the dead, but part (actually all) of that credit belongs to Kari Lake’s rise. I don’t think he can pull it off. Arizona is trending inexorably blue, probably already too blue for a weak candidate such as Masters. I am staying with LEAN D HOLD in this race. A Kari Lake victory will not be enough on its own to drag Masters over the finish line.
In Georgia, despite all his missteps, Walker is keeping it close. TOSSUP.
In Ohio, Vance is starting to surge late, while Ryan is fading. LEAN R HOLD.
In Wisconsin, Johnson continues to benefit from Barnes weak law enforcement stand and poor Democratic messaging nationwide. LEAN R HOLD.
In Colorado, Joe O’Dea was showing some strength for a while, but is fading down the stretch. LEAN D HOLD.
In New Hampshire, Bolduc has performed stronger than expected, but he is simply too extreme a candidate for a Yankee State. LEAN D HOLD.
In Florida, Rubio appears to have this in hand. LEAN R HOLD.
Here in North Carolina, despite any polls to the contrary, LEAN R HOLD.
So basically, the Senate comes down to three races, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia.
Republicans can take the Senate with victory in any two of those races. A victory in any one race keeps the Senate at 50-50. Democrats need to win all three races to gain an outright majority. But even then they are still at the mercy of Sinema and Manchin.
However, if Republicans had not nominated garbage, they would probably looking at a substantial Senate majority, possibly as high as 54 to 46. Bad candidates have made that impossible.
In the future, the best course of action is if Trump endorses somebody in the primary, vote for the other guy.