Late October election update (yes, Democrats can reach new levels of electoral incompetence and pull defeat from, if not victory, at least a standoff)

Before we even start, Republicans can take ZERO credit for any election victories they pull off (beyond those predicted in my August and September updates).

Democrats take 100% of the credit and Republicans should simply enjoy any unearned runs they receive.

For example, Democrats have ■■■■■■ up the very best advantage they have and that is on abortion, They have over-emphasized abortion and ignored the economy. And instead attacking Republican extremism, they have led with some very extreme rhetoric of their own, which has destroyed their edge on this issue.

Republicans have the House of Representatives well in hand, so on to the Senate.

In Pennsylvania, we have a giant ■■■■■■ (Oz) versus a turd sandwich (Fetterman). Oz is just ■■■■■■■ horrible. If he actually wins, nothing will change, he will still be ■■■■■■■ horrible and hopefully a coordinated effort to oust him in the 2028 Republican primary will be made. Anybody Republican but Oz would be leading this race in a landslide. As for Fetterman, he should have dropped out. But personal political ambition tends to drown out common sense. Had Fetterman done the right thing, a replacement Democrat would have this race well in hand. If Oz wins, it will be no credit to either Oz or other Republicans, but purely an unearned run. Most handicappers have this race as a Tossup and I will join them. Pure TOSSUP.

In Nevada, the situation looks better for Laxalt by the day. Every handicapper has this race as a TOSSUP, with which I will concur, but with the slight advantage to Laxalt.

In Arizona, Masters has actually made a rise from the dead, but part (actually all) of that credit belongs to Kari Lake’s rise. I don’t think he can pull it off. Arizona is trending inexorably blue, probably already too blue for a weak candidate such as Masters. I am staying with LEAN D HOLD in this race. A Kari Lake victory will not be enough on its own to drag Masters over the finish line.

In Georgia, despite all his missteps, Walker is keeping it close. TOSSUP.

In Ohio, Vance is starting to surge late, while Ryan is fading. LEAN R HOLD.

In Wisconsin, Johnson continues to benefit from Barnes weak law enforcement stand and poor Democratic messaging nationwide. LEAN R HOLD.

In Colorado, Joe O’Dea was showing some strength for a while, but is fading down the stretch. LEAN D HOLD.

In New Hampshire, Bolduc has performed stronger than expected, but he is simply too extreme a candidate for a Yankee State. LEAN D HOLD.

In Florida, Rubio appears to have this in hand. LEAN R HOLD.

Here in North Carolina, despite any polls to the contrary, LEAN R HOLD.

So basically, the Senate comes down to three races, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia.

Republicans can take the Senate with victory in any two of those races. A victory in any one race keeps the Senate at 50-50. Democrats need to win all three races to gain an outright majority. But even then they are still at the mercy of Sinema and Manchin.

However, if Republicans had not nominated garbage, they would probably looking at a substantial Senate majority, possibly as high as 54 to 46. Bad candidates have made that impossible.

In the future, the best course of action is if Trump endorses somebody in the primary, vote for the other guy. :smile:

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Fetterman is a ■■■■■■■ idiot who lives off his family. True Oz is not a good candidate either. I think some races the ■■■■ ups that Republic put into play will keep repubics from a majority. And a lot of uniformed voters wasting their votes on nitwits.

We are coming to the end of America’s greatness.

Good analysis Safiel. You did a good job on this repubics can only blame themselves.

I think it’s too soon for this conclusion. We need to wait and see his batting average after the mids.

You can wait if the repubics pull it off what will you do?

I am pessimistic but still have a little hope.

This election is all about turnout. And it was encouraging to see record number of new voter registrations in a lot of states. What will be interesting is that in a few races a third party candidate could take 1% or 2% and force a run-off. And while that was an advantage to a few Democrats in the last election, it could swing it either way this time. Bottom line is, go out and vote!

I think Oz will win not because he is good but damn Fetterman is and easy target. Not sure about Arizona likely will stay D. I think Walker might win but it will be close. It all matters where all that turnout is coming from in Georgia. Is in Atlanta or is it the turnout Youngkin got in rural districts. :man_shrugging:

Well, I won’t spin up a bunch of lies about a stolen election.

Yeah, this one isn’t gonna be over 'til it’s over.

One thing I agree with. These tossup races will be close.

Thanks mostly to the luxury of a six week concierge service level mail in ballot season.

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without this dems would fade away


lol… before we begin, even though i was wrong, i was right.

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i’m sorry, but your tds is not universal

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I witnessed how Ds could do no wrong in the eyes of their beholders with the last two Durham verdicts.


Good for you!

I blame Trump.

Best to get the sneering out of the way early. :rofl:

It would be a clear message otherwise. Back off.

Instead it will be muddled and the ballot harvesting will continue. One needs a season to harvest ballots properly.


i blame cheney, romney, murkowski, collins…


Here’s the deal…Georgia will very likely be a runoff.

If the Senate stands at 50-49 R absent the Georgia results, Walker will win the runoff.

Republicans will hold their noses and vote for him. Ossoff will not benefit from a Donald Trump encouraging Republicans to stay home like he did last time.

It it’s 51-48, he may still win the runoff but win the Senate at hand, many Republicans who think he is a terrible candidate will feel like they can stay home.

And yep…the Dems blew this.

And they doubly blew this by supporting Trump-backed candidates themselves because they they though they could beat them.

And some of those candidates they supported will beat the Dem candidate anyway, putting more of these idiots into Congress.

I blame Pelosi and Schumer for letting infrastructure rot under their long careers…Biden too.

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