Kyiv Institute: 63% of Ukrainians lost a close friend or relative in the war

Outside The Beltway
1

The absolute majority of Ukrainians - 78% - have close relatives or friends who were injured or killed due to the Russian invasion. Among those who have such close relatives or friends, the average number (the median value was used) was 7. That is, on average, such respondents have 7 close relatives or friends who were injured or killed.

Herewith:

Ukrainian casualty figures have been a state secret, and public estimates have been all over the map. A BBC version of the Teixeira Pentagon leaks showed approximately about 14,000 Ukrainian KIA as of February 28; another version of a similar document showed about 70,000 Ukrainian KIA as of March 1. RFK, jr has quoted a figure of 300,000 KIA.

974×643 160 KB

image

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2023/04/21/robert_f_kennedy_jr__what_were_being_told_about_the_ukraine_war_is_not_true.html

Is it possible to see if the figures from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology provide some insight as to what numbers are closest to the truth?

A basic question is how many deaths would be required to reasonably give the figures from the Kyiv Institute. A starting point is the look a similar survey where the number of deaths is also known.

Here are some figures I found related COVID deaths in the US from a survey done between March 2 an April 4, 2022. The number of US COVID deaths was just over 1 million at the time of the study. Here is an excerpt from the study:

Overall, 40% of adults in our survey knew at least one person who died of COVID-19. One in five adults (20%) knew one person, 13% knew two people, and 7% knew three people or more who died from the coronavirus. Among these 40% were 15% who lost a family member, 18% who lost a neighbor, 4% who lost a co-worker, and 14% who lost an acquaintance. (These numbers do not sum to 40% because many individuals indicated losing more than one category.)
COVID-19 deaths and depression | The COVID States Project

Working back from these numbers, each COVID death had to be reported as “friend or family” by 230 people. (The figure assumes the entire population is a respondent. If only adult population is considered, the number of the number of responses per respondents would go up but the number of respondents would go down by an offsetting amount.)

In the KIIS study, there were 189 reported deaths per 100 respondents. (63 % of respondents have lost loved ones with and an average of 3 deaths each.)

There were 37,500,000 people in Ukraine without Crimea and the DPR and LHR at the end of 2021 according to data in Wikipedia. Since then 8,500,000 refugees have left Ukraine and about another 3 million live under the control of Russia. That leaves a population of about 26 million.

The number of Ukrainians who have died in the war would then be:

26 million x (189 reports/100 respondents) / 230 (reports/death) = 213,000 deaths

If we eliminate deaths for “acquaintances” in the US study, the number of reports would drop to only 170 reports per death. The death figure would rise to over 300,000.

In order for the lowest leaked numbers to be correct, several thousand people would have to report each death as being from a “close family member or friend”. That sounds highly dubious.

2

The propaganda from the US regarding Ukrainian losses has a significance beyond simply stating the numerical losses. Like subconscious indicators of a lie in a polygraph test, the use of propaganda to overstate the victory of Ukraine indicates - in part, at least - the true role that our government plays in that war. It’s not just a lend-lease or sale of weapons as some here have tried to say. The US is in a proxy war. And the “polygraph sensors” that measure the breadth and depth of the propaganda that disseminates an illusion of Ukraine’s victory is one indicator thst substantiates this. Only a belligerent party would go to such lengths to convince the public of this. Why? As Harold Lasswell learned in his study of wartime propaganda 100 years ago.

The fighting spirit of a nation feeds upon the conviction that it has a fighting chance to win. The enemy may be dangerous, obstructive, and Satanic, but if he is sure to win, the moral of many elements in the nation will begin to waver and crumble. The animosity of a discouraged nation may be diverted to a new object, and the nation may be so busy hating the ruling class of its own country or its own allies, that it simply ceases to hate the technical enemy, and military collapse ensues. The illusion of victory must be nourished because of the close connection between the strong and the good. Primitive habits of thought persist in modern life, and battles become a trial to ascertain the true and the good. If we win, God is on our side. If we lose, God may have been on the other side. To bow to necessity is to bow to the right, unless the universe is itself evil, or unless this can be interpreted as a temporary tribulation meted out to punish us for past sins or to cleanse us for future glory. In any case, defeat wants a deal of explaining, while victory speaks for itself.

Chapter v, Illusion of Victory
Propaganda Technique in the World War
Harold D Lasswell

3

I doubt that many Ukrainians are fooled by the propaganda about low casualties. The vast majority have personal knowledge of the high losses on the battlefield. On the other hand, explicitly revealing the size of the losses may reduce support for the war.

I think that attempts to downplay Ukrainian losses are mainly directed toward elected leaders and voters in NATO countries. They have no personal knowledge of the losses, and they need to believe that Ukraine is likely to win in order to support continued war funding. The idea that NATO is sacrificing a generation of Ukrainian men in a losing cause conflicts with party line of supporting the war as “long as it takes”.

The study reports an average of three reported deaths for people who have a lost at least one person. That number only makes sense if the probability of additional reports goes way up after the first report. That is consistent with reports that Ukrainian National Guard units have suffered extremely high (>70%) casualty rates in Bakhmut and other recent battles. If you are from a town whose unit has been decimated at the front, you may know dozens of men who have died on the battlefield.

4

I’m guessing a very similar number of Russian lives have been lost too…and for what gain? Why Putin has not been assassinated already has me stumped.

5

Western reports agree that Ukrainians have been fighting a war of attrition with a huge disadvantage in terms of artillery, missiles, and air support. That would imply that Ukrainian losses are much higher than Russian losses. In addition, Russia’s population is at least five times that of Ukraine that is under control of Kyiv, so even an equal loss in absolute numbers would be much smaller for Russia in relative terms.

A far as documentation of Russian losses, the BBC reported the results an estimate of about 20,000 Russia Army KIA back in January based on publicly available records. The BBC report appeared on their Russian language service; I have not seen it in their English-language media.

The BBC figure did not include losses from Wagner, Chechen militia, and separatist militia from Donbass.

Prigozhin admitted a loss of over 20,000 Wagner soldiers back in May. Wagner was responsible for taking Bakhmut, so it has taken the brunt of the Russian losses earlier this year.

Prigozhin’s figure agrees with Zelensky’s recent claims about Wagner KIA in Bakhmut.

1 Like
6

Scott Ritter provides an estimate of 340,000 Ukrainian KIA plus 20 to 30,000 Ukrainian civilians. These are shockingly high numbers compared to the figures that usually appear in western media, but they are consistent with KIIS survey results.

See video starting at 41:50 for the estimates.

See video at 46:00 for a description of the methodology.

7

Are that many people making the case that See, Ukraine’s casualties aren’t that bad? I’m not. I’m not sure what purpose it would serve: playing up blood, death, and sacrifice can motivate engagement as much as it leads to despair and apathy.

Also, there’s something so elegantly bad-faith about supporting the invasion of a country, relentlessly promulgating propaganda justifying the invaders, and then tsk tsk tsking about how terrible it is for the victims of the invasion, like you’re Thucydides.

People expected Russia to crush Ukraine in weeks. Or less:

image
image1170×248 70.9 KB

It’s been a year and a half. And they haven’t even got to the hard part yet.

2 Likes
8

Hmmmm… elegantly bad-faith? Even more so when you deny the initial invasion of a force funded and backed by Barack Obama’s administration that created a bloody coup in the streets of Kiev, thereby destroying the democratically elected government and ushering in an era of mass murder of Eastern Ukrainians who did not support the new foreign controlled puppet government.

But… oooh… I forgot… :shushing_face:

9

You’re barely bothering to season this bland, GRU-issued slurry these days—and who can blame you given your target audience? Just tilt the chair back, pull the cap over your eyes.

3 Likes
10

Also, the first part:

Are that many people making the case that See, Ukraine’s casualties aren’t that bad?

I’m not. I’m not sure what purpose it would serve: playing up blood, death, and sacrifice can motivate engagement as much as it leads to despair and apathy.

People expected Russia to crush Ukraine in weeks. Or less:

image
image1170×248 70.9 KB

11

General Milley stated that the Russians could take Kyiv in 72 hours before the invasion. The Russian government never claimed that.

A repeating theme in the western war coverage has been to use mindless speculation and mind reading from western “experts” to define Putin’s alleged plans. When Russian actions do not meet silly western expectations, western media claim a Russian failure.

As noted in the OP, western media and fact checkers have been pushing absurdly low Ukrainian KIA figures under 17,500 as of February 28. The recent survey from the Kyiv institute would mean each dead Ukrainian would have to have several thousand people who are considered “close friends or family”.

As Scott Ritter notes, Washington has downplayed Ukrainian losses to support the narratives that Ukraine is winning, Russia is on the edge of collapse, and there is no need to negotiate before Russia is defeated.

The reality is that the Ukrainian losses have been horrendous, hopes for a Ukrainian victory is a cruel fantasy, and the Ukrainians are needlessly dying to satisfy the desires of neocons and the NATO military-industrial complex.

12

You are clearly projecting. You won’t find my detailed explanation - especially the significance of the timing of the coup, obtained through independent research - from Russian sources. As far as I know, the Russians have never mentioned it and may not even know it. The fact that the head of the Russian Orthodox Church ( AKA KGB boogyman with a nice watch under your bed) preached that the “west” wants everyone to bow towards Sodom doesn’t indicate that they know why Obama pulled the trigger on the coup in February 2014.

My main sources were Ukrainian officials, Ukrainian documents, and US documents.

13

Do you think Scott Ritter—who’s clearly important to you, given the matter of fact citation—carries a whole lot of weight with anyone in the US? You seem to be mixing up your audiences.

He’s a convicted sex offender who became far too toxic here to have a respectable career, so now he’s making bank writing for Russian propaganda garbage chutes like Sputnik and RT. He’s been on a book tour.

Also, I’m not sure he has the interests of Ukraine in mind:

image
image1170×1851 272 KB

14

Ritter has experience in the military and politics as a UN weapons inspector and an officer in the marines.

Do you have any real comments about his analysis of the casualty figures?

Do you have any explanation about how the claims of low casualty figures can possibly be reconciled with huge numbers of deaths implied with the recent KIIS survey?

15

Wow! I didnt know that. I guess i won’t recommend him as a babysitter for young women.

1 Like
16

I don’t care about his assessment because he’s an overt propagandist and Russian fan-boy who wants Ukraine destroyed. He’s not subtle. Who can forget this prophetic statement?

image
image1170×1004 106 KB

17

You are welcome to wrap yourself in a cocoon of lies and misinformation from the overt propagandists and Zelensky groupies who dominate western media.

The numbers from the Kyiv institute are consistent with Ritter’s estimates of Ukrainian casualties. The estimates generally reported in western media are grossly optimistic and are not consistent with the Ukrainian survey.

I prefer to live in a world where facts matter.

18

If only Ritter had dubious interactions with actual girls, rather than with adult police pretending to be girls, he might have a shot at real leadership in Washington.

Of course, it most likely works the other way. The FBI would have never allowed a police sting operation for a Washington insider. Instead it would have ended any real investigation and would be attacking any accusers if Ritter were a “protected person” rather than perceived as an “enemy of the state”.

1280×720 99.7 KB

19

Can you imagine where that thumb has been?
:face_vomiting:

1 Like
20

Yes. Curiously Ghislaine Maxwell is sitting in prison after multiple convictions for sex trafficking minors, but none of the many wealthy and powerful clients at Epstein Island has faced any charges.

The last time there was a serious investigation into widespread corruption in Washington was over 40 years ago. It occurred during a time when the FBI was faced serious political pressures after revelations from the Church report.

The message to elected leaders has long been: Don’t mess with the deep state. Using lies and intimidation to hide the horrendous casualties suffered as a result of the proxy war is just the latest example.