It's like borrowing money . .

Toll_Collector · 2024-09-27T17:16:47.392Z

Gaius:

Toll_Collector:

Gaius:

George W Bush shut down a simlar strike in 2002 after 11 days.

Much like the discussion of GOP Congressioanl tactics I am not sure why this is being discussed on this thread but oh well.

I don’t know how you shut down a strike, but I only brought it up because I think it would have an impact on the economy beyond what you originally talked about. But I do realize it is slightly off topic. I’ll stop.

From CNN

The NRF is one of more than 200 business groups that sent a letter to the White House this week asking that the Biden administration act to prevent a strike, saying that the country relies on moving both imports and exports through these ports.

“The last thing the supply chain, companies and employees…need is a strike or other disruptions because of an ongoing labor negotiation,” said the letter.

The letter does not explicitly spell out the action sought, but it implies President Joe Biden should exercise powers under what is known as the Taft-Hartley Act to order a quick end to the strike, as President George W. Bush did when he halted an 11-day lockout of union members at West Coast ports in 2002.

Some economists think Biden will decide to take that action, despite strong union opposition to such a move.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/26/business/port-workers-ila-strike/index.html

Imports (including energy) are 15% if the US economy.
Shutting down a portion of non military imports at a portion of harbors is easy to overstate/sensationalize. (like Hurricane coverage)

But the impact would be significant, and the panic and panic bidding would be real.

You’re referring to the Taft Hartley act. An 80 day cooling off period. That’s going to have zero impact. It has no teeth in this situation. The union leader already addressed this. He said production would basically stop. It would go to a crawl for the 3 months. So if our brain dead President enacted this, it would be a 3 month extension of the strike. Which is why they said they weren’t getting involved.

Gaius · 2024-09-27T19:43:45.184Z

Christmas shopping starts well before black Friday these days.

Hmmm . . .

Gaius · 2024-09-27T19:46:23.073Z

Toll_Collector:

But I do realize it is slightly off topic. I’ll stop.

Nah, we’re good.

I don’t think the original topic was garnering much discussion anyway.

Impenitent · 2024-09-27T20:19:47.985Z

Gaius:

Christmas shopping starts well before black Friday these days.

Hmmm . . .

Christmas shopping… Harris/Bidenomics makes Christmas shopping double plus good!

Toll_Collector · 2024-09-28T07:27:15.907Z

The whole video is good. But you can skip to 15:20 to see the end game. It’s also where he addresses the Taft-Hartley act.

Gaius · 2024-09-28T08:35:10.020Z

Sounds accurate but overstated.

Like a reporter covering a storm. (Storms are real. Storms do real damage, and yet the media often tries to over play them.)

EG He spoke of shutting down autos. Well there are are cars made in the USA, Canada and Mexico and cars imported via the W coast. Those will be unaffected.

Moreover. current auto inventories are at/near record highs. Twice 222 levels and 1.5 times 2023 levels.

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Gaius · 2024-09-28T08:47:25.710Z

The biggest impact will probably be in produce. (Fruits and vegetables)
The US is an ag exporter but not in every product category.
A LOT of our produce is imported via Ft Lauderdale and NY harbors
and it does not keep well so there is not a lot of inventory.

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Second biggest will be Christmas items.
Although only a small percent of them come in via the East Coast,

Retail will abslutely die if Christmas doesn’t go well
Making shoppers worry about Christmas shopping is very powerful stuff…

Toll_Collector · 2024-09-28T15:33:26.160Z

Besides toilet paper disappearing from the shelves, I don’t think a short strike would have a big impact on the economy. Like you said, he was exaggerating it a bit. He’s a big piece, but not the only game in town. A prolonged strike would be problematic.

Ports in Montreal will go on a 3 day strike starting on Monday. I think they’ve been working without a contract for some time now.

Gaius · 2024-09-28T15:45:05.897Z

I hadn’t thought about toilet paper.
I think it comes mostly from Canadian paper stock but what do I know.

When Baltimore Harbor could no longer import European cars, (bridge collapse) most would not have noticed had it not been for stories in the media. (Ditto with most government shut downs)

When your supermarket runs completely out of entire categories of fresh produce, Moms and celebrity chefs and lots of other folks will see the impacts first hand. So yeah, it’s not the kind of event that we’d have to read about. It would be bigger than that.

Bread and circuses

peek-a-boo · 2024-09-28T17:21:19.070Z

Toll_Collector:

Besides toilet paper disappearing from the shelves, I don’t think a short strike would have a big impact on the economy.

I still have a year supply of toilette paper stashed in my basement from the COVID shortages.

Toll_Collector · 2024-09-28T19:11:45.586Z

It doesn’t matter where the TP actually comes from. It probably comes from the same place it did during Covid.

Once the media starts making this sound like Armageddon, that’s when we’ll see the usual stuff fly off the shelves. I don’t think they’re going to need to see it first hand.

Gaius · 2024-09-28T19:44:32.325Z

Toll_Collector:

It doesn’t matter where the TP actually comes from. It probably comes from the same place it did during Covid.

Once the media starts making this sound like Armageddon, that’s when we’ll see the usual stuff fly off the shelves. I don’t think they’re going to need to see it first hand.

This

Gaius · 2024-09-30T16:15:17.899Z

Meanwhile a port strike will be like good exercise. It will strengthen our economic muscles.

Domestic producers and those retailers etc. who rely on them will benefit every bit as much as import-dependant ones will hurt

Cratic3947 · 2024-09-30T16:18:53.509Z

peek-a-boo:

So, to make things better, let’s shut down the Government. That will certainly put things back in order.

Why would shutting down the govt be the only option?

Cratic3947 · 2024-09-30T16:22:03.163Z

and you look over the thread and no solutions were offered by democrats…

Yet, they still vote democrat. Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results…

peek-a-boo · 2024-09-30T17:18:34.277Z

Cratic3947:

Why would shutting down the govt be the only option?

That seems to be the far right’s go-to option. If not for DEM support, there would be a partial government shutdown beginning tomorrow. It would likely be lengthy, and Republicans would get the blame. Nothing would be gained other than bad publicity for the GOP.

Going into a presidential election, that wouldn’t provide good optics. But then again, those on the far right just can’t seem to help themselves.

SixFoot · 2024-09-30T21:00:32.267Z

Impenitent · 2024-09-30T22:08:14.804Z

“inflation goals” should only apply to certain parade floats…

Gaius · 2024-10-02T03:48:47.769Z

Toll_Collector:

It doesn’t matter where the TP actually comes from. It probably comes from the same place it did during Covid.

Once the media starts making this sound like Armageddon, that’s when we’ll see the usual stuff fly off the shelves. I don’t think they’re going to need to see it first hand.

I propose a compromise:

All US exports
can be loaded onto ships via automation
(quick cheapmand efficient.)

But when offloading imported goods
all cranes are to be operated by a human crane operator, plus one assitant,
and all the trucks onto which they are loaded must also have a crew of 2.

Sound good?

Gaius · 2024-10-02T04:41:29.750Z

Meanwhile
Our recent GDP growth is an illusion.

For many years he was spending $50,000 and goiing less than $50,000 into debt Maybe his debts were too high, but at least he was positive most years.
(green bars below.)

Maxing out your credit cards to by perishable consumables vacations etc. is not a flex. It is a sign of trouble and more importantly it is a cause of trouble (red bars below)

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.
.
.
The Trump years were bad too? Okay. But still, recent years the healthy economy has been an illusion.

Some of those years were necessary to recover from recessions? Okay. But still, recent years the healthy economy has been an illusion.