It's like borrowing money . .

Toll_Collector · 2024-09-27T12:48:17.209Z

What impact would a long strike by the ILA have? It’s just a few days away.

Gaius · 2024-09-27T13:08:10.461Z

Toll_Collector:

ILA

My undertanding is that, it would be pretty severe although there is quite a bit of sensationalizing and partial-facts being floated the media.

Kind of like excited coverage of a hurricane, then a jogger casually jogs by and a couple of kids are seen playing in puddles in the background. (The storm is real. the damage is real, nonetheless the media sensatioalizes.)

Hard for me to put that into numbers

e7alr · 2024-09-27T13:10:53.098Z

What part of the products lining the shelves of our stores are imported from overseas and shipped here by sea? The same question applies to the supply chain for our assembly plants here. Our plants here don’t really fabricate any of the parts they use to assemble the products coming out of the plant. How many of those parts are shipped here by sea from overseas. A longshoreman strike will bottleneck the supply chain for products and parts, with little to no domestic manufacturing base to fill the gap this side of the ports in the supply chain.

peek-a-boo · 2024-09-27T13:20:02.549Z

Gaius:

I don’t mind the GOP threatening/using the shutdown tactic every few years,
but recently the GOP has threatened it and caved, and threatened it and caved so many times it has become a useless tactic (other than making the GOP look like a clown show.)

What’s the definition of insanity?
.
.
.
Still, that is off topic.

The current “economic expansion” is an illusion, and stupid GOP tactics are as related to that topic as “the GOP wears the wrong color shoes.”

There is no way forward without bipartisan compromise. With today’s toxic political atmosphere, that will never happen.

So here we are.

My fear with the GOP government shutdown threat is that they might actually succeed. For those of us retirees depending on our 401k savings, a long-sustained shutdown would be devastating, and it would achieve nothing but political theater.

I am a fiscal conservative, but I’m also a pragmatic realist. There is no quick easy fix and threatening to shut down the government every chance they get just drives me further away from the Republican party I used to embrace.

Toll_Collector · 2024-09-27T13:20:36.817Z

Gaius:

Toll_Collector:

ILA

My undertanding is that, it would be pretty severe although there is quite a bit of sensationalizing and partial-facts being floated the media.

Kind of like excited coverage of a hurricane, then a jogger casually jogs by and a couple of kids are seen playing in puddles in the background. (The storm is real. the damage is real, nonetheless the media sensatioalizes.)

Hard for me to put that into numbers

They want to shut down the entire east coast, and all the way to Texas. I believe that’s almost 50% of our imports. What I worry about, and this is only if a strike drags out, are prices spiking due to a shortage of supply.

Gaius · 2024-09-27T13:43:18.943Z

Toll_Collector:

They want to shut down the entire east coast, and all the way to Texas

Well the ports affected are only those on the East Coast and the Gulf.
Even those ports wouldn’t be completely shut down but parts of them would be.
Oil for example would nto be affected.

That said a strike like this would be disruptive, largely because of the fear factor and the resulting bidding wars for imported products.

George W Bush shut down a simlar strike in 2002 after 11 days.

Much like the discussion of GOP Congressioanl tactics I am not sure why this is being discussed on this thread but oh well.

Toll_Collector · 2024-09-27T15:27:57.941Z

Gaius:

George W Bush shut down a simlar strike in 2002 after 11 days.

Much like the discussion of GOP Congressioanl tactics I am not sure why this is being discussed on this thread but oh well.

I don’t know how you shut down a strike, but I only brought it up because I think it would have an impact on the economy beyond what you originally talked about. But I do realize it is slightly off topic. I’ll stop.

Gaius · 2024-09-27T15:37:02.652Z

Toll_Collector:

Gaius:

George W Bush shut down a simlar strike in 2002 after 11 days.

Much like the discussion of GOP Congressioanl tactics I am not sure why this is being discussed on this thread but oh well.

I don’t know how you shut down a strike, but I only brought it up because I think it would have an impact on the economy beyond what you originally talked about. But I do realize it is slightly off topic. I’ll stop.

From CNN

The NRF is one of more than 200 business groups that sent a letter to the White House this week asking that the Biden administration act to prevent a strike, saying that the country relies on moving both imports and exports through these ports.

“The last thing the supply chain, companies and employees…need is a strike or other disruptions because of an ongoing labor negotiation,” said the letter.

The letter does not explicitly spell out the action sought, but it implies President Joe Biden should exercise powers under what is known as the Taft-Hartley Act to order a quick end to the strike, as President George W. Bush did when he halted an 11-day lockout of union members at West Coast ports in 2002.

Some economists think Biden will decide to take that action, despite strong union opposition to such a move.

CNN – 26 Sep 24

Port workers from Maine to Texas are set to strike Tuesday. Expect shortages...

Longshore workers at ports from Maine to Texas are set to walk off the job early Tuesday, staging what could become the most disruptive strike to the US economy in decades.

Imports (including energy) are 15% if the US economy.
Shutting down a portion of non military imports at a portion of harbors is easy to overstate/sensationalize. (like Hurricane coverage)

But the impact would be significant, and the panic and panic bidding would be real.

Toll_Collector · 2024-09-27T17:16:47.392Z

Gaius:

Toll_Collector:

Gaius:

George W Bush shut down a simlar strike in 2002 after 11 days.

Much like the discussion of GOP Congressioanl tactics I am not sure why this is being discussed on this thread but oh well.

I don’t know how you shut down a strike, but I only brought it up because I think it would have an impact on the economy beyond what you originally talked about. But I do realize it is slightly off topic. I’ll stop.

From CNN

The NRF is one of more than 200 business groups that sent a letter to the White House this week asking that the Biden administration act to prevent a strike, saying that the country relies on moving both imports and exports through these ports.

“The last thing the supply chain, companies and employees…need is a strike or other disruptions because of an ongoing labor negotiation,” said the letter.

The letter does not explicitly spell out the action sought, but it implies President Joe Biden should exercise powers under what is known as the Taft-Hartley Act to order a quick end to the strike, as President George W. Bush did when he halted an 11-day lockout of union members at West Coast ports in 2002.

Some economists think Biden will decide to take that action, despite strong union opposition to such a move.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/26/business/port-workers-ila-strike/index.html

Imports (including energy) are 15% if the US economy.
Shutting down a portion of non military imports at a portion of harbors is easy to overstate/sensationalize. (like Hurricane coverage)

But the impact would be significant, and the panic and panic bidding would be real.

You’re referring to the Taft Hartley act. An 80 day cooling off period. That’s going to have zero impact. It has no teeth in this situation. The union leader already addressed this. He said production would basically stop. It would go to a crawl for the 3 months. So if our brain dead President enacted this, it would be a 3 month extension of the strike. Which is why they said they weren’t getting involved.

Gaius · 2024-09-27T19:43:45.184Z

Christmas shopping starts well before black Friday these days.

Hmmm . . .

Gaius · 2024-09-27T19:46:23.073Z

Toll_Collector:

But I do realize it is slightly off topic. I’ll stop.

Nah, we’re good.

I don’t think the original topic was garnering much discussion anyway.

Impenitent · 2024-09-27T20:19:47.985Z

Gaius:

Christmas shopping starts well before black Friday these days.

Hmmm . . .

Christmas shopping… Harris/Bidenomics makes Christmas shopping double plus good!

Toll_Collector · 2024-09-28T07:27:15.907Z

The whole video is good. But you can skip to 15:20 to see the end game. It’s also where he addresses the Taft-Hartley act.

Gaius · 2024-09-28T08:35:10.020Z

Sounds accurate but overstated.

Like a reporter covering a storm. (Storms are real. Storms do real damage, and yet the media often tries to over play them.)

EG He spoke of shutting down autos. Well there are are cars made in the USA, Canada and Mexico and cars imported via the W coast. Those will be unaffected.

Moreover. current auto inventories are at/near record highs. Twice 222 levels and 1.5 times 2023 levels.

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Gaius · 2024-09-28T08:47:25.710Z

The biggest impact will probably be in produce. (Fruits and vegetables)
The US is an ag exporter but not in every product category.
A LOT of our produce is imported via Ft Lauderdale and NY harbors
and it does not keep well so there is not a lot of inventory.

image2000×1125 426 KB

Second biggest will be Christmas items.
Although only a small percent of them come in via the East Coast,

Retail will abslutely die if Christmas doesn’t go well
Making shoppers worry about Christmas shopping is very powerful stuff…

Toll_Collector · 2024-09-28T15:33:26.160Z

Besides toilet paper disappearing from the shelves, I don’t think a short strike would have a big impact on the economy. Like you said, he was exaggerating it a bit. He’s a big piece, but not the only game in town. A prolonged strike would be problematic.

Ports in Montreal will go on a 3 day strike starting on Monday. I think they’ve been working without a contract for some time now.

Gaius · 2024-09-28T15:45:05.897Z

I hadn’t thought about toilet paper.
I think it comes mostly from Canadian paper stock but what do I know.

When Baltimore Harbor could no longer import European cars, (bridge collapse) most would not have noticed had it not been for stories in the media. (Ditto with most government shut downs)

When your supermarket runs completely out of entire categories of fresh produce, Moms and celebrity chefs and lots of other folks will see the impacts first hand. So yeah, it’s not the kind of event that we’d have to read about. It would be bigger than that.

Bread and circuses

peek-a-boo · 2024-09-28T17:21:19.070Z

Toll_Collector:

Besides toilet paper disappearing from the shelves, I don’t think a short strike would have a big impact on the economy.

I still have a year supply of toilette paper stashed in my basement from the COVID shortages.

Toll_Collector · 2024-09-28T19:11:45.586Z

It doesn’t matter where the TP actually comes from. It probably comes from the same place it did during Covid.

Once the media starts making this sound like Armageddon, that’s when we’ll see the usual stuff fly off the shelves. I don’t think they’re going to need to see it first hand.

Gaius · 2024-09-28T19:44:32.325Z

Toll_Collector:

It doesn’t matter where the TP actually comes from. It probably comes from the same place it did during Covid.

Once the media starts making this sound like Armageddon, that’s when we’ll see the usual stuff fly off the shelves. I don’t think they’re going to need to see it first hand.

This