I opened this thread because the outcome of that elections is interesting for USA and especially the Middle East policy in future, taking also in consideration the close friendship between President Trump and PM Netanyahu.
Latest poll of leftist paper Haaretz indicate a neck to neck race between Netanyahu’s party Likud and the coalition Kahol Lavan led by general Benny Gantz, a veteran who was involved in many conflicts resolved by military means in the past. I can remember that in spring the polls indicated Kahol Lavan to win by 1 or 2 points (being within the margin of error), and at end Likud won. Netanyahu’s party Likud is better now than in spring in the poll of a leftist publication, which is usually hostile to Netanyahu’s policy.
The Problem for Kahol Lavan is that if they would win, they would hardly find enough parties to get the majority of 61 seats and build a government. The two fundamental religious parties United Torah Judaism and Shas claimed already that they would agree to be part of a government under PM Netanyahu only.
The Jewish Russian party Yisrael Beiteinu led by former minister of Defense Avigor Lieberman is right-wing nationalist secular and actually the political group which may hold the balance of power, as the former government lost the majority last year as Lieberman had a difference of opinion with Netanyahu regarding Gaza (Lieberman intended to go harsher against Hamas, Netanyahu was more pragmatic) and the negotiations in spring broke down because Lieberman couldnt find an agreement with the fundamentalist parties UTJ and Shas, which reject that their men join the IDF (Israel’s Army), something which is unacceptable for Lieberman. He proposed to have a coalition of the moderates, excluding the fundamentalist religious groups, but the two big parties should agree for that, and Kahol Lavan would rather be part of a government if Netanyahu wouldnt be PM anymore …
An interesting coalition is the political group Yamina, which unite some religious groups, but is led by a secular woman, Ayelet Shaked, who is considered currently the most powerful woman in Israeli politics.
The leftists groups Dem Union and Labor are insignificant. They come together around 11%-12% according to the polls, but neither Gantz, nor Netanyahu would rely on them for a governmental coalition. A blessing, imagine the US Congress having only 11% Democrats, who wouldnt play any role in American politics…
The Arab Joint List (11%) play no role as well
This is the unfortunate trap in Israeli politics. A bunch of damned Ultra-Orthodox hold Israel by the testicles, because it is impossible to form a government without them. I would love to see an Israeli election turn out so that a government could form with zero Ultra-Orthodox support, that could then eliminate all Ultra-Orthodox privilege in Israel, including requiring the Ultra-Orthodox to serve in the military under the exact same circumstances that all other Israelis must serve.
They aren’t a very small minority, they’re over 10% of the population and growing rapidly with an average birthrate of 7 kids. They’re expected to be over a quarter of the pop by 2060. They also have higher turnout as a voting bloc.
Any political tiebreaker gets outsized influence. The ultra orthodox and now the Kahanists could be the Kingmakers for Netanyahu.
As another poster pointed out, they are significant and growing as a segment of the population.
Even from the very first Knesset elected in 1949, the Ultra-Orthodox held the balance of power.
David Ben-Gurion’s first government fell due to the Ultra-Orthodox pulling out over an objection to policy and he could only form his second government after placating the Ultra-Orthodox.
Being small is irrelevant, if you hold the balance of power and the Ultra-Orthodox have held the balance of power for most of Israel’s history.
This is by far not the final result and will change during the evening. In spring looked it even worse for Likud in the first projection.
But even with that first result, Netanyahu would need just 5 more seats to have the majority. Lieberman or that small farright party Otzma Yehudit could help him to have the majority. The problem is, if Kahol will have more seats, their leader will be asked first to build a government and only after they would fail, Netanyahu could do it
Which party should join their coalition?
If they try with the leftists, Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu) will not join, and a coalition with Lieberman and lets say Yamina, wouldnt give them a majority. The only possibility is a big coalition, but Netanyahu wouldnt do it if he isnt PM
There had been speculations that Kahol asked different Likud MPs to join their coalition and build a moderate government, but under the condition that they get rid of Netanyahu
The 64k question is: will they hold again new elections if they will fail again to build a government?
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