I find it interesting watching Brexit news from the other side of the Atlantic, but I have never seen how any significant deal is really possible.
The reason for Britain leaving the EU was because of gripes about immigration, regulations, finances, etc. The problem is any real change in immigration, regulation, finances, etc. is going to require approval of all 27 remaining members of the EU since these are a considered core values of the EU. That means that Latvia or half of Belgium could effectively veto any agreement. It makes the US constitutional amendment process seem positively easy and straightforward.
Countries such as Norway do have deals with the EU, but they have to accept all the EU requirements on immigration, regulations, funding, etc. without any voting representation. Why would Britain ever agree to that? They would have to keep all the burdens of staying in the EU that now have without any say in the EU government.
Realistically I see only two possible alternatives. The most likely is a no-deal Brexit, perhaps with some minor agreement what to do with the millions of Brits and EU citizens that will be on the wrong side of the channel after the exit. The only other outside possibility is that the British parliament will cancel Brexit at the last moment.
Do you see other possibilities?
Is there some backdoor to an agreement that I donât know about?
It takes time to get a referendum. The Brexit date is set for March 29, 2019.
With these kinds of negotiations nothing happens until the last possible minute, but then it would be too late to have a referendum. The only way a referendum could occur would be after parliament cancels Brexit.
The advantage of not courting economic disaster while still honoring the will of the people, as they call it. Itâs certainly not ideal but the Brexit vote put them in a terrible position.
Personally I think that the no deal Brexit is the most likely scenario because it is the default.
Having another referendum or calling for another parliamentary election takes time. Any election would have to announced by mid January at the latest in order to allow enough time.
The easiest thing for the EU to do is to just drag its feet and let time run out. Any real compromise with the UK could result in demands from other members.
Theresa May is on the verge of being the recipient of a no-confidence vote. All around the world, the working class is waking up to their leaders attempting to push their globalist agenda on them and are now choosing to fight back. We here in the US were inspired by the Brexit vote and now they are inspired by Trump. Italy, Hungary, FranceâŚand Great BritianâŚyou go people.
Time is an issue. The UK is scheduled to leave March 29, 2019. It is unlikely that a new referendum would be scheduled until after a parliamentary election, which takes about two months from the announcement. If May goes is forced to call an election, a new parliament may have to reverse course without a referendum.
From what I can see of Mayâs deal, it is basically Brexit in name only. Britain basically gets the benefits and burdens of remaining in EU but has no voice in the EU government. What advantage does that have over staying in the EU?
As I have stated before I see only two reasonable options. Either Britain leaves with essentially no deal, or it stays in the EU as a full member.
There is no advantage in this deal, other than being the best of the bad options available.
This is what the remain camp warned Brexiteers about during the referendum, that what Brexiteers like Farage were promising was completely unrealistic.
Either we crash out with no deal which is economic suicide, or we settle for mostly the same relationship with no influence anymore.
To be fair to the EU, they were shouting as loud as they could that they had very clear red lines that they canât/wonât cross in any Brexit deal. They werenât lying, people like Farage were. So here we are.
The UK didnât vote for a hard Brexit, the pro-Brexit camp specifically campaigned against a no-deal scenario.
So now we will have to have another referendum which actually asks whether the UK wants a hard Brexit or Mays deal or just to remain, imo.
The conventional wisdom is that a hard Brexit would be bad for the economy. There would certainly be at least short-term disruptions.
On the other hand, many market analysts were sure that in the highly unlikely event of a Trump victory, markets would crash. Instead the economy has surged ahead.
Predictions are difficult, especially about the future.
