Iran Shoots Down US Drone

Apocalypto · 2019-06-20T16:53:46.976Z

Iran admitted to it so no mistake.

https://twitter.com/msnbc/status/1141749443450081280?s=21

Plasmaball · 2019-06-20T16:54:16.811Z

Just pretend its Russians and who cares!

H_Arendt · 2019-06-20T16:55:16.090Z

PizzaReverend:

I think Iran wants the US to attack them.

They’re not dumb. They read American papers. They know that a faction of the white house (under Bolton and Pompeo) have been wanting a war with Iran for decades. They also know Trump doesn’t want a war, and neither does his most hardcore base (Thank you Tucker Carlson, of all people).

Further, they also know that the American public doesn’t have the stomach for another Middle Eastern Quagmire. Neither does America’s allies (save Israel).

Basically getting into a war would hurt Trump, hurt America, and hurt its allies. Meanwhile, it would strengthen Irans extremists over it’s moderates and feed every single twrrorist groups narratives that exist.

And Trump has, of course, made things worse. He unilaterally withdrew from the Iran deal - which Iran was abiding by - to the objections of literally everyone. He’s been plenty of bluster about action against Iran because he’s literally incapable of backing down.

So now Iran feels free to do overtly aggressive actions, knowing if the US retaliates, it’ll end in disaster.

So. Good Job Trump.

Good analysis, but I would add one more item.

Trump withdrew for the Iran accord at a time when our intelligence sources and our allies were all saying Iran was in compliance with the accord. This, coupled with Trump’s “America First” disdain for traditional allies (whom he insists are taking advantage of us) enabled Iran to draw much closer to the rest of the accord coalition. Iran has greater support internationally than the US does at this time, and that certainly plays into Iran’s decision to take a more provocative position.

The arrival of John Bolton as an advisor to the Prssident also was easy to interpret internationally, since John Bolton has never seen a Moslem country he did not want to go to war with. He is well known a one trick pony in international relations.

Trump said, when he withdrew for the accord, that he wanted Iran to come back to the table and negotiate new terms. They ignored him on this and worked to improve their diplomatic status vis-a-vis the US. Another Trump diplomatic failure.

W_and_C · 2019-06-20T16:58:09.226Z

reflechissez:

Here's to feeling good all the time. :

PizzaReverend:

I think Iran wants the US to attack them.

They’re not dumb. They read American papers. They know that a faction of the white house (under Bolton and Pompeo) have been wanting a war with Iran for decades. They also know Trump doesn’t want a war, and neither does his most hardcore base (Thank you Tucker Carlson, of all people).

Further, they also know that the American public doesn’t have the stomach for another Middle Eastern Quagmire. Neither does America’s allies (save Israel).

Basically getting into a war would hurt Trump, hurt America, and hurt its allies. Meanwhile, it would strengthen Irans extremists over it’s moderates and feed every single twrrorist groups narratives that exist.

And Trump has, of course, made things worse. He unilaterally withdrew from the Iran deal - which Iran was abiding by - to the objections of literally everyone. He’s been plenty of bluster about action against Iran because he’s literally incapable of backing down.

So now Iran feels free to do overtly aggressive actions, knowing if the US retaliates, it’ll end in disaster.

So. Good Job Trump.

I don’t think Iran would want us to attack despite all those things you mentioned. They have much to lose in an event of war. Imagine if we bombed Kharg Island where nearly all of their crude oil exports go through, f.e. It would take an enormous amount of time and effort for their economy to recover.

The impact on the price of oil would not be negligible.

The impact from their side would be catastrophic which is why I don’t think they “want” to be attacked like that poster suggested.

reflechissez · 2019-06-20T17:00:23.509Z

Here's to feeling good all the time. :

reflechissez:

Here's to feeling good all the time. :

PizzaReverend:

I think Iran wants the US to attack them.

They’re not dumb. They read American papers. They know that a faction of the white house (under Bolton and Pompeo) have been wanting a war with Iran for decades. They also know Trump doesn’t want a war, and neither does his most hardcore base (Thank you Tucker Carlson, of all people).

Further, they also know that the American public doesn’t have the stomach for another Middle Eastern Quagmire. Neither does America’s allies (save Israel).

Basically getting into a war would hurt Trump, hurt America, and hurt its allies. Meanwhile, it would strengthen Irans extremists over it’s moderates and feed every single twrrorist groups narratives that exist.

And Trump has, of course, made things worse. He unilaterally withdrew from the Iran deal - which Iran was abiding by - to the objections of literally everyone. He’s been plenty of bluster about action against Iran because he’s literally incapable of backing down.

So now Iran feels free to do overtly aggressive actions, knowing if the US retaliates, it’ll end in disaster.

So. Good Job Trump.

I don’t think Iran would want us to attack despite all those things you mentioned. They have much to lose in an event of war. Imagine if we bombed Kharg Island where nearly all of their crude oil exports go through, f.e. It would take an enormous amount of time and effort for their economy to recover.

The impact on the price of oil would not be negligible.

The impact from their side would be catastrophic which is why I don’t think they “want” to be attacked like that poster suggested.

The oil market is global. It wouldn’t be good for anybody.

GWH · 2019-06-20T17:02:41.525Z

Plasmaball:

Why would it? It’s an empty phrase like make America great again.

Death to America is an empty phrase? Please advise ISIS and Hezbollah. Thanks.

conan · 2019-06-20T17:04:10.787Z

Here is the deal. If Trump reacts libs will call him a war mongrel , it he doesn’t libs will accuse him of being a coward.

It’s how libs roll.

conan · 2019-06-20T17:05:23.621Z

What is going to be fun to watch…libs siding with Iran over Trump.

noSpaces · 2019-06-20T17:06:09.946Z

Iran will shut down the Straight of Hormuz and likely knock out Saudi Arabia in a heartbeat. They have real cards to play if pain is their game.

Adam · 2019-06-20T17:06:47.090Z

conan:

Here is the deal. If Trump reacts libs will call him a war mongrel , it he doesn’t libs will accuse him of being a coward.

It’s how libs roll.

You are right that Trump has maneuvered himself into a situation where there aren’t good options.

GWH · 2019-06-20T17:07:06.278Z

Already happening. They’re blaming Trump for shooting down the drone.

Candyman · 2019-06-20T17:07:08.341Z

conan:

What is going to be fun to watch…libs siding with Iran over Trump.

What do you consider “siding with Iran”?

Apocalypto · 2019-06-20T17:07:08.896Z

Fat donald is in a bit of a conundrum here. Saudi Arabia, Bolton, Graham and the rest of the neo cons want a war with Iran, but Iran is Russia’s ally so he’s desperately trying to avoid that scenario.

Auto129 · 2019-06-20T17:07:14.735Z

The only winning move is to not play this game just to alter a deal we signed.

Adam · 2019-06-20T17:08:13.728Z

GWH:

Already happening. They’re blaming Trump for shooting down the drone.

Who is doing that? Iran already said they shot it down. Trump’s the one saying it was maybe a mistake on Iran’s part.

conan · 2019-06-20T17:09:16.956Z

Iran needs to open up its entire nuclear weapon program. But not just Iran…China too.

Our program is open…and yes even the Russians too.

I would also include Pak and India as well.

But that’s my two cents.

noSpaces · 2019-06-20T17:10:00.004Z

So was this drone in Iranian airspace or not? Reportedly it was not when shot down, but where was it when target acquisition occurred?

GWH · 2019-06-20T17:12:55.560Z

Adam:

Who is doing that? Iran already said they shot it down. Trump’s the one saying it was maybe a mistake on Iran’s part.

PizzaReverend:

So now Iran feels free to do overtly aggressive actions, knowing if the US retaliates, it’ll end in disaster.

So. Good Job Trump.

Good job Trump, indeed.

Auto129 · 2019-06-20T17:19:27.606Z

I have issue with you calling it a nuclear weapons program, but whatever. This was debated to death on the old forum so I’m just going to appeal to IAEA authority.

That solution is not going to happen. The only point of throwing that dream solution out there is to pretend that we’re suddenly backed into corner now–with no other option but to escalate tensions.

Here’s what Trump can do–go back into the deal, and stop punishing Iran with sanctions despite compliance.

Adam · 2019-06-20T17:22:50.497Z

GWH:

Adam:

Who is doing that? Iran already said they shot it down. Trump’s the one saying it was maybe a mistake on Iran’s part.

PizzaReverend:

So now Iran feels free to do overtly aggressive actions, knowing if the US retaliates, it’ll end in disaster.

So. Good Job Trump.

Good job Trump, indeed.

Saying that Trump has backed himself into a corner where Iran can probably get away with this is not “siding” with Iran. And it isn’t blaming Trump for shooting down the drone. It’s stating that super genius who knows more than anybody about everything actually sucks at this. Which those of us without blinders on have seen in pretty much every interaction he’s had with foreign governments.