So it looks like since Carter (want to stay relatively recent) the 4 main wave elections were Obama, Clinton, Trump then GW Bush. Of those do you know which (if any) was a surprise?
As I remember the biggest surprise was Bush. He had a lot of momentum and popularity after 9/11, but there were a lot of folks who said pre-election that his popularity had decreased to the point there would be seats lost.
uhm… no. their estimate has nothing to do with maga. it takes pre election polls vs actual performance. and in a few states its dems that under polled and over performed. so again, no, you don’t just add 3-5%. also, i believe they overestimate a bit since their performance data includes 2 general elections and trump was on the ballot for both