If I recall correctly in more recent times the two biggest wave elections were Clinton and Obama’s first term midterm. If I’m wrong please correct me. I was curious if anyone one here remembers what was the sentiment and polling prior to those elections (and others for that matter - Regan, Bush, Trump, etc.)?
If you want to get a good indication, go to RCP and add about 3-5% GOP to every poll you’re interested in. That’s RCP’s estimate to how much polls underestimate GOP strength since a lot of MAGA Republicans ignore pollsters.
Quick glance…it’s looking like a good chance the GOP gets both the House and Senate.
The Red Wave is back on…maybe not as big as 2012, but big enough.
I don’t know how much weight to put in polls as of late they have consistently dropped the ball at least from 2016 to the present not a 100% sure why, Virginia was a good example.
It looked like Mark Kelly was set to cruise to victory just saw a poll that he is now just 1 point up so I have no clue. I would be surprised which ever party wins the governor race in Georgia they will also win the senate seat. So much down ballot voting.
Nope. And I would think that it could take a lot of time and effort to nail that down. One thing that is sure, is that polling methods have changed a lot over the decades. And I have noticed that during the last few election cycles early polling vastly changes in some areas because of changes in demographics. And polling can’t anticipate total turnout which can change the results drastically in some areas. I would think that the local polls will be more accurate. But we will have to wait and see.
I’m basing it on what real clear politics themselves have said about their own polling over the last few years.
I haven’t done any sophisticated analysis myself, but I see no reason to doubt them. And to be blunt… Anecdotal evidence is in their favor that there’s a whole bunch of mostly republican voters who have dropped out of active participation in polls.
I can’t swear that it’s a trend that holds all over the country.