In past midterm elections was the polling (or other factors) able to predict the past waves? Also, how does this one compare (if at all)?

If I recall correctly in more recent times the two biggest wave elections were Clinton and Obama’s first term midterm. If I’m wrong please correct me. I was curious if anyone one here remembers what was the sentiment and polling prior to those elections (and others for that matter - Regan, Bush, Trump, etc.)?

Here is a pretty good list.

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If you want to get a good indication, go to RCP and add about 3-5% GOP to every poll you’re interested in. That’s RCP’s estimate to how much polls underestimate GOP strength since a lot of MAGA Republicans ignore pollsters.

Quick glance…it’s looking like a good chance the GOP gets both the House and Senate.

The Red Wave is back on…maybe not as big as 2012, but big enough.

What do you expect, even the majority of democrats disapprove of transitioning kids.


I know you’ve been conditioned to think this is a top issue among voters, but it’s not even close.

Only in extreme RW World do people think it’s this widespread thing.

Republicans are going to win because of the economy/inflation.

Then they can have the power to continue their culture war fever dreams.

So don’t worry…in many areas of the country , you’ll have the power to be able to freely and openly make LGBTQ lives miserable.


Only because not enough people know it’s actually happening yet, people are working hard to change that as we speak.

As for the GOP making their lives miserable, at least we won’t mutilate them and call it medicine.

You meant 2010, but in my opinion 94 was more impressive because it dragged senate with em. 2010 thou it dragged lot of local elections/districts.

This time it’s dragging lot of governorship.

So will see.

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Is that what you think is going on?

I don’t know how much weight to put in polls as of late they have consistently dropped the ball at least from 2016 to the present not a 100% sure why, Virginia was a good example.

It looked like Mark Kelly was set to cruise to victory just saw a poll that he is now just 1 point up so :person_shrugging: I have no clue. I would be surprised which ever party wins the governor race in Georgia they will also win the senate seat. So much down ballot voting.

You didn’t have to tell me libs don’t give a rat’s rear about the well being of these children. They’re the ones initiating all of this evil insanity.

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Are you saying this based on historically what has generally happened or more on your evaluation today?

Actually a very good list of the results. Of those outcomes do you know which polling got correct?

Nope. And I would think that it could take a lot of time and effort to nail that down. One thing that is sure, is that polling methods have changed a lot over the decades. And I have noticed that during the last few election cycles early polling vastly changes in some areas because of changes in demographics. And polling can’t anticipate total turnout which can change the results drastically in some areas. I would think that the local polls will be more accurate. But we will have to wait and see.

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That might be true in national elections but parents having a say in their kids will be big in local and state elections.

I’m basing it on what real clear politics themselves have said about their own polling over the last few years.

I haven’t done any sophisticated analysis myself, but I see no reason to doubt them. And to be blunt… Anecdotal evidence is in their favor that there’s a whole bunch of mostly republican voters who have dropped out of active participation in polls.

I can’t swear that it’s a trend that holds all over the country.

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Cultural conservatives don’t care about the kids either… The only care about indoctrinating them themselves. Because that’s what gave them power.

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It is. The Muslims in Michigan are joining in.

The rest of that is a good post.

would be nice if both side has the same concept of what “transitioning”.

Christian Nationalism and ISIS are pretty much cousins.