How immigration can have a negative economic impact on a community


#74

No one is saying that all immigration should be eliminated, and everything is ok when the economy is doing good but when there is a downturn (recession) which always comes things are less rosy as well as more pressure on taxpayers. If it is true and automation is advancing rapidly how many more blue collar workers are needed? I agree with your H1B visa comment, I am in the IT field and see that abused on a daily basis.

There is also social cohesion to think about. I highly recommend this article by the Atlantic, it’s a long read. But the question is how much is to much?


#76

Until it’s made a felony it won’t deter anyone from coming in.


#77

We have taken a half-ass approach to border security and immigration enforcement for the past 30 years, and that is on both sides. Regarding making illegal immigration a Capital Offense, I found that an odd thing to even bring up since nobody would advocate for that. Nonetheless that is not the focus of this thread.


#78

A very good article, fair, well thought out and thorough (and I haven’t read it all yet). This was a point I found very interesting:

“Under present immigration policies, the U.S. population will exceed 400 million by 2050. Nobody is seriously planning for such population growth—building the schools and hospitals these people will need, planning for the traffic they will generate. Nobody is thinking very hard about the environmental consequences, either. The average American causes the emission of almost 17 tons of carbon dioxide each year, quadruple the annual emissions of the average Mexican and 45 times the emissions of the average Bangladeshi.

There is a sense that we can just keep growing and growing our population here and there will be no negative consequences to that. Not only economically but environmentally as well.


#79

How common is that phenomenon in say the past 10 years with all immigrants? This was another point brought up by that article from Hexenbiest:

"…while the impact of immigration on what the typical American earns is quite small, its impact on government finances is big. Estimates from the National Academy of Sciences suggest that on average, each immigrant costs his or her state and local governments $1,600 more a year in expenditures than he or she contributes in revenues. In especially generous states, the cost is much higher still: $2,050 in California; $3,650 in Wisconsin; $5,100 in Minnesota.

**** Immigrants are expensive to taxpayers because the foreign-born population of the United States is more likely to be poor and stay poor. Even when immigrants themselves do not qualify for a government benefit—typically because they are in the country illegally—their low income ensures that their children do. About half of immigrant-headed households receive some form of social assistance in any given year."


#80

This is all pie-in-the-sky bs as far as I’m concerned. You are basically arguing (if I understand you correctly) that we have the ability to import millions of impoverished people into our country and actually benefit economically from it? It’s like you are saying our public schools are capable of churning out high percentages of high payed individuals.

An exclusively Merit-Bases Immigration system on the other hand would be a very big economic benefit, not the way we are currently doing things now.


#81

22 million does.


#82

It might be true, but that’s not what I’m hearing.

You’d have to define “blue collar”. My understanding is that they are skilled and semi-skilled factory workers. But the low-end illegal immigrants are generally No-collar workers will no marketable skills. They fill positions like farm labor, dish-washing, landscape worker, house cleaner, etc. These are jobs that are difficult to fully automate and will be with us for a very long time. That they are the least respected, lowest-paid jobs make them less attractive to native-born Americns and truly define the dilemma facing blue-collar workers who lose their $25/hr factory job and have to work for $7/hr mowing lawns or frying burgers.

Very good article. There are some errors, but it lays out most of the technical issues very well and in some ways supports almost unlimited immigration. It actually got me thinking about how other factors, like Foreign Policy, affect immigration to the U.S. Funny he talks about mass South-to-North migration but mentions nothing about East-to-West Migration which has recently begun to surpass South/North.

Social cohesion effects of immigration are important and my gut feel is that they do affect our American Identity. But I look at our history and recognize that our identity changes all the time. My Grandparents were unabashedly racist - that was their American identity. My Parents were orderly progressives - equal opportunity for all; concerned about appearances; living the American Dream. My children’s generation is worried abut the Dream lost, and how to adapt to a multi-ethnic society where they will be the great losers.
We are not the Country we were 50 years ago. Those optimistic Americans wouldn’t even recognize us today, in the same way that their grandparents in the 19-teens wouldn’t have recognized them.


#83

You missed my point - if you truly want to take a “full-assed” approach to Border Enforcement, you might have to do things that are, at best, distasteful and, at worst, gruesome.

As far as nobody advocating for it, look at the post immediately preceding yours.


#84

My observation is that it quite common. A co-worker of mine is a “Dreamer” who came here at 18 months old. Her parents went from dishwashers and waitresses to owning their own restaurant. They put her through college and now she is a degreed Aerospace Engineer. A local Gardener came here and mowed lawns until he could buy a truck and equipment to start his own business. My Auto mechanic employs a number of immigrants who used to be homeless and now perform a respectable trade.

Not ALL immigrants are that successful. By the same token, not ALL native-born Americans are that successful, either.


#85

Are we really even talking about “blue collar” workers? Doesn’t blue collar typically mean mechanics. plumbers, electricians, welders, etc? Much of what immigration has been about is minimum wage (or lower) workers. Many particularly illegal immigrants try to find work as house keepers, in landscaping, small construction, etc. But theses types of jobs are not necessary. For example, used to hire a housekeeper, and be more open to hiring someone to do landscaping work or fix something in our house. But with our tax burden and cost of living what it is in NJ we have basically cut all that off. In other words it is not only automation that can eliminate those types of jobs.


#86

On a long-term basis that’s probably true, but its not what I was saying.

What I was saying was that since these children are here, it would be better to teach them NOT to become Criminals and further burden the Society by robbing or killing some of us.

Relative to the rest of the World, we do. However, relative to the rest of the INDUSTRIALISED World, we could - and SHOULD - do better.

Pay to Play? I believe we have that now. Invest a $Million to start a U.S. based business and employ some Americans, and a foreign national gets moved to the head of the line.

I have some direct experience with merit-based immigrants, too. Their effect is no different than illegal immigrant labor at the bottom of the pay-scale. They work for less money than American Professionals. They work longer hours. They endure abuse and don’t complain for fear of being deported. And they take jobs away from Americans who have graduated college, sometimes with advanced degrees - Americans trying to just get the same American Dream their parents had.


#87

I’ve said this before that as a NJ resident (who has to travel into NY on occasion) I have likely met more immigrants than most (if not all) people on this forum, and my experiences are largely positive. But let’s be clear you are just giving some anecdotal accounts. I’ll quote the article again:

"… while the impact of immigration on what the typical American earns is quite small, its impact on government finances is big. Estimates from the National Academy of Sciences suggest that on average, each immigrant costs his or her state and local governments $1,600 more a year in expenditures than he or she contributes in revenues. In especially generous states, the cost is much higher still: $2,050 in California; $3,650 in Wisconsin; $5,100 in Minnesota.

***** Immigrants are expensive to taxpayers because the foreign-born population of the United States is more likely to be poor and stay poor. Even when immigrants themselves do not qualify for a government benefit—typically because they are in the country illegally— their low income ensures that their children do . About half of immigrant-headed households receive some form of social assistance in any given year."*


#88

I said it was a good article, but not that it was entirely correct.

Frum blurs the distinction between legal and illegal immigrants. That $1600/year would still be provided to legal immigrants in Frum’s model. Its not a function of immigration - its a function of poverty. That $1600/year is also provided to native-born Americans who happen to be poor.

And the myth that immigrants are more likely to stay poor is misguided. True enough that our current system makes it harder for the poor to break out of poverty, but that is again a function of poverty, not immigration. In addition, immigrants are typically willing to take greater risks than poor Americans and will endure greater hardships than Americans to see those risks to success. On a generational basis, Immigrants are simply more successful than Americans.


#89

As a conservative I tend to think change isn’t bad but shouldn’t come so fast. I think the difference is a conservative like me would view our society as not something everyone in the world who wants to can come to, but our society and culture as something unique and fragile that we should take care of not to upset the current system. A quick travel to many countries outside the west one can see quickly that what we have isn’t the normal and we are pretty lucky, and we should do our best to protect that.

To me honestly when I talk about social cohesion I am speaking of integration - not race. I don’t care so much of ones skin color but were they come from in terms of their chances of integrating. For instance a person of color from let’s say Britain would probably have an easier time integrating into the U.S. more than a white person from Moldova. The language is the same and the laws are similar.

In my mind our society is like a life boat, but whereas the lifeboat says ‘x’ amount of people can come onto before sinking, there is no such warning on the immigration levels that would cause our country to sink. I feel like we should work on integrating the people here already before bringing in massive amounts more.

If we were truly integrated wouldn’t we live together better. Half a city wouldn’t be one color and the other side of town a different color. We would all speak the common language. I see success in integration don’t get me wrong, but I see the failures as well.


#90

Over population just a decade a go was a major talking point from the left. The left wants a greater social safety net and in some cases I agree with them. But at the same time a lax immigration system were the people will take out more services than they will put in, compared to the people who have already been putting their tax dollars into the system.

The German taxpayers are already feeling the pain with the amount of immigration they took in a few years ago. They are estimating (conservatively) the cost will be 80 billion Euros until 2022, with many analysts predicting it will go way past that on trying to house and integrate the people they took in from 2015.


#91

Illegal immigration has brought the deaths of 10’s of 1000s to Americans over the years, 1000+ Americans are murdered by drunk driving Illegals from Mexico EVERY year in just California alone, 100s more if you add the rest of the Country.
IF the Democrats REALLY cared about these people, they would change the ways they are, not to mention all their agendas that have kept the Black people down n out n aborting them by the millions, that’s why there’s only 19 million in America, and some of them aren’t really from here, they just came recently from Somalia, Jamaica, Haiti and so on and so forth. IT’S very clear that the Democrats Foreign n Domestic Polices have and will bring RUIN to this Nation. after the DOJ is done with them, they may never have another chance too, praise be to God if so.


#92

Interesting statement coming from someone in the IT field - You’ve personally changed American society completely in an amazingly short time.

The great strength of American Culture appears to be that it is NOT fragile and is ever-changing into something else. That was my earlier point. Each generation evolves into a culture vastly different that the one that preceded it. And that evolution is driven as much or more by native residents as by immigrants.
When I travel to other countries, I am struck by how INflexible and UNchanging their cultures are.

Ah, if only everyone could behave like middle-class white people…
My observation is that nearly all immigrants try to integrate; but they have varying degrees of success. But often times their failure to integrate creates surprising strengths that change our culture for the better.

China has 4 times as many people on the same size lifeboat and they’re not sinking, yet.

Again, we seem to be talking about poverty, not immigration.


#93

The thing is with overpopulation is that it comes from exclusively from predominantly non-white countries and as far as I’m concerned there is a component of the “left” that views all non-white races in a sort of sacrosanct way. That is part of the reason they are silent about that issue now and the other part of the reason is that they want as many of those people here in the US. I’ll finish my post with another point from the article you posted:

"Assertions that federal tax revenue from immigrants can stabilize the finances of programs such as Medicare and Social Security overlook the truth that immigrants will get old and sick—and that in most cases, the taxes they pay over their working life will not cover the costs of their eventual claims on these programs. No matter how many millions of immigrants we absorb, they can’t help shore up these programs if they’ll need more in benefits than they can ever possibly pay in taxes. If a goal of immigration policy is to strengthen Social Security and Medicare, it would be wise to accept fewer immigrants overall, but more high-earning ones, who will pay more in taxes over their working years than they will collect in benefits in retirement. Under the present policy favoring large numbers of low-wage earners, the United States is accumulating huge future social-insurance liabilities in exchange for relatively meager tax contributions now."


#94

First off we have to stop using the narrative of the left because its not “immigration”, it’s ILLEGAL invasion and we are at EMERGENCY levels of hordes of illegals invading our country.