Simple question. How do you think this is going to “end”? What do you think is going to happen?
New government powers.
There has to be some basic understandings.
- There is no “cure” for a virus.
- It is impossible to prevent the spread of a respiratory virus.
- Treatment for this virus consists of supportive TX of symptoms while the virus runs it’s course in the patient.
- People are going to die from it, just like they do from others.
- We are at least a year out from a vaccine that will likely be about as effective as the flu vaccine.
One impact is going to be a Massive increase in the demand for mental health services. We will see alcoholism and drug addiction skyrocket as well as mental health issues from people being isolated, scared and financially ruined.
Other changes will occur with the mindset towards saving and preparedness. I am not talking about full on prepper with bug out bags and gold coins more along the lines of ensuring you have a supply of paper goods, tinned food etc.
If this virus becomes an annual thing, people are going to have to stop smoking for real.
I don’t disagree, but that’s not my question.
It already is an annual thing. You mentioned it the other day about the name. SARS-COVID-2 or whatever it was.
I keep hearing “Now’s not the time! Protect the healthcare system!”
What I want to know is how will we know it is the time?
It seems a lot of people feel there is going to be a victory in the GWOCF, what does that look like?
Can we keep up this lock down until we get a vaccine that is about as effective as the flu vaccine? As effective as the H5N1 vaccine?
Will that level of effectiveness be enough for you?
Corona ends with an “a”. There’s no doubt about it.
What’s the trigger for our Exit Strategy?
What difference does “peak” make?
Will there be another “peak”? What’s the hope?
Am I making you uncomfortable?
We won’t need to keep the lockdown once the level of recovered people reaches a point where herd immunity kicks in enough not to overwhelm the healthcare system.
I think in 6-8 weeks NYC,NJ,… will be in a recovering mode. Spent, exhausted, devastated. The peak will have passed and some light at the end of the tunnel. PPE and health care items all spent.
But cities like Omaha or Topeka or Memphis will be in the depth of their battle. And with the supplies gone and the coastal governments and media looking to move on, the flyover country will be ******.
Seems logical. And when will this mythological “herd immunity” kick in? Immunity from what?
Do you have any evidence the healthcare system is making a difference?
I’m hoping masks (even cloth masks) become a more regular thing. I’m ordering re-usable ones that can be properly sanitized. They will only have about 60% effectiveness, but that’s still significant as it relates to lowering the r0. The CDC is likely to be releasing updated guidelines saying as much. That was definitely one of the failures in all of this—the false narrative that masks aren’t helpful. There’s a difference between saying they aren’t helpful and they aren’t the most effective.
What does the “light” look like?
There’s nothing mythological about herd immunity. It’s a well understood phenomenon. Immunity from sars-cov-2.
Yes, the healthcare system is making a difference, otherwise there’d be no point of putting people on vents. The mortality rate of serious and/or critical patients isn’t 100%.
Worst case, Bruce Willis travels back in time and swallows a spider looking for the 12 monkeys.
Best case, we build herd immunity over time, the longer the social distancing the longer it’ll take, and we wait on the next booger out of China to infect the world, or cut them off.
My thoughts aren’t interesting to me.
I haven’t seen a lot of thoughts by anyone, just recitation of mantras. Thoughts are exactly what I’m looking for.
Our entire strategy has been one of “protect the healthcare system!” Yet no one has been able to show evidence, much less proof, that it is the schwerpunkt.
I keep hearing “peak”, “herd immunity”, “testing” - mantras. I don’t think any thought has been put into any of them. There are a ton of assumptions.
You are not going to become immune from infection. What are you going to be “immune” from?
No? What is it if you put them on ventilators? Is the ventilator “curing” them?