How concerned are you about the economy?

What gets me is that virtually all wealthy people act like being poor is unimaginable torture that we must do everything in our power to alleviate. All they are doing there is telling you how much they loathe the poor and could never imagine having to be one of them. Argh the children are growing up in poverty! Me, so what? So did I, didn’t bother me that much.

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Yes, I believe that her ARK funds have lost about 70% of their value. One of her positions TDOC (I believe) went from over $300/share to around $30/share.

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Well here’s the thing/

All the non ARK investors wound up in the same place.

That is how crazy-bad the market is right now.

Well you haven’t lost a dime if you don’t sell.

It will turn around once Brandon and company lose power.

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Oh let’s hope not. A lot of the current level of the stock market, the housing market, consumer demand etc. is the result of wrong-headed and unsustainable policy.

It’s what we call a “bubble,” or a government-created “boom-to-bust.”

The stock market is STILL over valued by about 15%. When that ~15% goes, let us hope the government and the fed do not return to their previous policies.

gdp is not the nations “annual salary”.

fed tax reciepts 4T, debt 30T and climbing

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My wife sells on Ebay, and things were going great during the time when all the stimulus went out along with the extended unemployment. Over the past few months sales have declined substantially!

I was temporarily working retail at the time . . . there was NO DOUBT when the checks went out.

The point of posting the chart however was to show how crazy and unprecedented was out government’s response to the covid crisis. That was NOT economic smoothing in the time of crisis. I do not know if the economy is now going to hell as a result or just go through heck. We are still in bubble phase. The stock market is still about 15-20% over valued.

Stock markets and economies, when they return to equilibrium have a tendency to keep going down past the equilibrium before rising back up, so I guess it could be bad.

Jumped .20 cents a gallon today. Just a tad under $5 a gallon.

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That is because greed and fear live at the two ends of the market. Greed drives foolish over valuation, while fear leads to panic selling.

This chart shows there are very few exceptions to the rule.

Inflation begins to recede after and only after the Fed raises interest rates HIGHER than inflation. Given that fact, how high must chairman Powell raise interest rates to combat 8.3% inflation?

Yep. The Feds had to raise interest rates as high as 20% to combat inflation that never exceeded about 14%.

The Phillips curve is not a straight line. (and it shifts and changes over time). Perhaps raising interest rates to 14.1% would have been sufficient to end a 14% inflation rate.

But history shows 10% interest is typically useless against 11% inflation,
and our current 1.00% Federal funds rate will not reduce 8.3% inflation.
Raising it to 1.25% is ot likely to do the job either.

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When I’m driving I typically switch around between the political talk and the business/Market talk. Much of what I am hearing agrees with you! Most of those I’ve heard are still predicting a recession but ironically not till around 2023. Here’s Jim Cramer’s take on some of what we are seeing:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/inflation-appears-much-worse-than-we-thought-says-jim-cramer/vi-AAXtuM6?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=0d957fc9fbeb482eb8ee89cbdd8e4235

The cost of so many things are up, I guess this is what utopia looks like?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/worse-than-trump-how-biden-bungled-the-job-of-leading-america-s-economy/ar-AAXrXTs?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=e5e313f32465409a90b4e781dafb5cac

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Thank you Eagle.

Historically, in a broad over-arching sense every time someone says “Inflation is bad” conservatives get to say “See, I told ya so.” :grinning:

In a general sense recessions happen for two reasons:

  • A bubble bursts.
  • The fed, hoping to deflate a bubble before it bursts raises interest rates high enough to trigger a recession.

Chairman Powell is a timid man. His paltry ~1.25% Fed Funds rate has ZERO CHANCE of taming inflation. So if someone says “no recession until next year,” that makes sense. Whether they know it or not, a person who says a person who predicts that is predicting it will take that long before Chairman Powell grows a pair of courage organs and does what needs to be done.

But the evidence is mounting that we are already in the first stages of a bubble-burst recession. They can be bad, (Great Depression, dot.com bust etc…) People don’t like to predict those because well, they can be bad, very bad. Falsely predicting a bubble-bust recession makes one look and sound like a crackpot alarmist, yet more and more analysts are beginning to take that risk.

The emporer has no clothes.

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You lost me at Jim Kramer.

CNN actually said, the answer to inflation was for Americans to stop buying things. No lie.

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The answer to inflation is for the government to stop inflating. :smile:

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