I will go one further.
Already . . .
Already right now it is cheaper to buy a new home than to buy a resale home.
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Why? Newly-built homes are smaller and
smaller homes are already what is in demand.
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Why? Newly-built homes are smaller and
smaller homes are already what is in demand.
In June 2025, it was roughly 8% or $33,500 cheaper to buy a new house from a builder than to buy an existing house.
This chart is from Reventure a major housing data app (whihc I donpt own).
Reventure’s CEO posted it on twitter with the following comments:
The immigration boom from 2022 to 2024 is hiding a startling fact:
U.S. natural population growth has plummeted.
With growth from Births minus Deaths clocking in at only 502k in 2024.
That’s down about 70% from the mid-2000s.
His 4-part twitter post notes
- I’m also wondering about the rental market and how much it might have been propped up over the last 3 years by the huge deluge of immigration the U.S. experienced.
Various estimates have immigration levels down as much as 95% so far in 2025, so what will that do to apartment demand going forward?
Here are my added notes.
If I have done the math right the market for McMansions will begin a sharp decline 12 years from now.
So . . . no hurry to sell, but I don’t recommend buying one.
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I disagree. I was able to obtain a 2.86% mortgage. Over the last 13 years, I have averaged almost 7% return on my investments. It makes no sense for me to tie up my wealth in my house.
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